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General discussionForum Mafia #63 Supernatural(876 posts)(876 posts)
(876 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted December 10, 2019
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Lifthrasil: Unless it was a genuine omission in the rules, which has to be clarified. But I think trent would have clarified any errors on his part on his own by now, if he wanted to.
Nooo! If mod-Trent had seen us discussing "dedo can't be mafia because he's done two actions on the same night" "it's possible that RW might have done two actions on the same night" There's no way he could wade into the discussion and clarify without being directly asked.
Posted December 10, 2019
Any setup discussion will have to occur after the game.

Day will end sometime Thursday evening.
Posted December 10, 2019
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trentonlf: Any setup discussion will have to occur after the game.
Huh. And here he comes wading into the discussion. Are you trying to make me look bad? ;)
Posted December 10, 2019
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trentonlf: Day will end sometime Thursday evening.
About that.. I'm taking son to Prague for the weekend. We are flying on Thursday morning and getting back on Sunday evening. I will be around until tomorrow night RL so I have some 30-ish hours of effective time left. It's probably a good idea to try and come up with a choice by then if someone is still on the fence.
Posted December 10, 2019
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PookaMustard: Wouldn't it be more beneficial, in your eyes, to suspect Joe is a better intersection than I am?
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Lifthrasil: From a pure combination view that's true. But he feels more towny since yesterday.
But combination wise, Joe falls into three intersecting categories: "Joe+RW," Joe+Pooka" and "Joe" whereas I only fall into two ("Pooka+Joe" and the unlikely "RW+Pooka"). If we're talking chances and mechanics alone, Joe is more likely to flip scum than I would (from my eyes the chance I flip scum is 0%).

Ultimately the fact that my play-style is different and unrefined is the big issue with me. I tend to get caught up with what I say and spend time writing it, ranging from about 15 minutes to an entire hour or so. I fail to get across the point that I'm afraid of pulling a bad lynch without sounding like I just want to lynch this person and be done with it.
Posted December 10, 2019
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Lifthrasil: From a pure combination view that's true. But he feels more towny since yesterday.
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PookaMustard: But combination wise, Joe falls into three intersecting categories: "Joe+RW," Joe+Pooka" and "Joe" whereas I only fall into two ("Pooka+Joe" and the unlikely "RW+Pooka"). If we're talking chances and mechanics alone, Joe is more likely to flip scum than I would (from my eyes the chance I flip scum is 0%).

Ultimately the fact that my play-style is different and unrefined is the big issue with me. I tend to get caught up with what I say and spend time writing it, ranging from about 15 minutes to an entire hour or so. I fail to get across the point that I'm afraid of pulling a bad lynch without sounding like I just want to lynch this person and be done with it.
Okay right.
Maybe it's just that I empathise with someone who can spend more than an hour writing a post and still be misunderstood, but as much as it makes the most mechanical sense, I don't think it's Pooka.
I think, I do think I understand Pooka, and I really feel like Pooka's not scum.

So I think I've got to vote RWarehall

It's not a nice situation to be in, because I do believe he probably has an ally, and so it must be lift or dedo which each seem impossible, but I can't believe it's Pooka.

Also RW's post today was terrible.
Posted December 10, 2019
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Lifthrasil: From a pure combination view that's true. But he feels more towny since yesterday.
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PookaMustard: But combination wise, Joe falls into three intersecting categories: "Joe+RW," Joe+Pooka" and "Joe" whereas I only fall into two ("Pooka+Joe" and the unlikely "RW+Pooka"). If we're talking chances and mechanics alone, Joe is more likely to flip scum than I would (from my eyes the chance I flip scum is 0%).
You may be on to something there. Maybe Joe is just better with words and with pretending. Or maybe you're both scum and you pointing me his way is just distancing. In any case it's interesting that he suddenly protects you in his last post.

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JoeSapphire: Maybe it's just that I empathise with someone who can spend more than an hour writing a post and still be misunderstood, but as much as it makes the most mechanical sense, I don't think it's Pooka.
I think, I do think I understand Pooka, and I really feel like Pooka's not scum.

So I think I've got to vote RWarehall

It's not a nice situation to be in, because I do believe he probably has an ally, and so it must be lift or dedo which each seem impossible, but I can't believe it's Pooka.
That is a very interesting 180° change. 8 hours ago you wrote:

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JoeSapphire: Prefer to lynch Pooka over RW.
And this 180° change of heart was caused by Pooka writing that he takes an hour to write a post and is still misunderstood? ... That is a very weak reason. Also, you know who HAS to spend a lot of time fabricating posts sometimes? Scum. To avoid contradicting themselves.

About the vote: my first reaction was: that's very dangerous if Joe and RW should be Town. But then I realized that it isn't. If there are two scum (i.e. enough to pile on a single mis-vote), they both have to be among the triple {RW, Joe, Pooka}. I know I'm Town and dedo has been cleared pretty solidly too. So either scum-Joe is now voting Town-RW and the second scum will likely hold back until there is a chance to quickhammer. Or Town-Joe is voting scum-RW, in which case scum won't have the inclination to quickhammer. Or scum-Joe is voting scum-RW, in which case there is no danger of quickhammer either. Or there isn't a second scum. So one vote out of the suspect-three on another one out of the suspect-three isn't that dangerous yet.

Currently I am inclined to vote either Joe or Pooka. With his 180° flip coupled to his vote, he looks more scummy again. Pooka, for all his appeal to emotion, hasn't convinced me that he's Town either. However, a vote by me would carry the risk that I hit the wrong one out of the three if there are two scum among them. So I'm holding back for now until dedo has commented this new development and until RW has had a chance to react.
Posted December 10, 2019
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Lifthrasil: That is a very interesting 180° change. 8 hours ago you wrote:

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JoeSapphire: Prefer to lynch Pooka over RW.
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Lifthrasil: And this 180° change of heart was caused by ....
lol - dedo and you are the ones that prefers to lynch pooka over RW. That's what I'm clarifying to dedo in the post you quote here. Becaus it's impossible for me to be understood.
Posted December 10, 2019
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Lifthrasil: That is a very interesting 180° change. 8 hours ago you wrote:

And this 180° change of heart was caused by ....
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JoeSapphire: lol - dedo and you are the ones that prefers to lynch pooka over RW. That's what I'm clarifying to dedo in the post you quote here. Becaus it's impossible for me to be understood.
Oh, sorry. ... My mistake. So that's why you relate to Pooka because you keep being misunderstood yourself? Is that the only reason why you Town-read him?

If you really are Town, I can understand scum-reading RW. His contributions have been too few and he seems to be not really invested in the game. But I'm not sure that's a scum-tell and I'm not sure if you aren't just pushing the only available target left apart from you and Pooka. If you both are scum, all you need is one final mislynch to win this game. You're not going to be able to mislynch dedo and I guess RW is a more viable target at the moment than I would be. So your push for RW would fit the Pooka+you=scum theory.
But it's also possible that you assume correctly that I would not want to follow you on a wagon, since I still suspect you. So maybe you are intentionally voting your buddy, to make him appear more towny (which he himself failed to do) Gah! This game is giving me a headache!


@dedo: since you asked to make a decision by tomorrow evening, with your absence looming and all:
My last accusation vs. Joe about the 180° change of mind was wrong. However, I still see him and Pooka as the most likely scum team, so in the end I would be willing to lynch either. It is, however, also possible that RW is scum after all with one of the two of them. However, since RW probably can't be scum alone (Joe's push for the double-action scum none-withstanding), I think our best bet would be to lynch one of Pooka or Joe. But I'm really torn which one. Joe had several Town-moments and Pooka's desperation seems genuine as well, at times and his mechanical argument against Joe makes kind of sense too.

What's your take on the situation?

@RW: and what's yours? You've been awfully quiet and with us being possibly at LyLo that silence is going to hurt Town. So if you are Town, please invest some more time in the game!
Posted December 11, 2019
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Lifthrasil: What's your take on the situation?
I share the same suspicion. I feel the most likely team is Pooka + Joe. Obviously almost all other combinations are possible but at this point we have to pick one and hope for the best. I highly doubt some new information would pop up magically that would untangle the game.

My working theory is the scum team is Pooka + Joe. In my opinion Pooka realized that if every other claim turns out true and the Town believes that his buddy would be automatically implicated. That's why I think he started to consider dropping ship for the sake of appearances in the hopes of getting Town cred upon scum flip or distance himself enough to make their group seem unlikely. I did a very similar thing when we were scum together with Pooka and things weren't looking great. I did my best to bus him and I would have done so without thinking twice if it actually went to it as I was certain I can win the game off that. It was a means to an end. I believe scum-Pooka is trying to achieve that when he is doing his best to persuade you that Joe is a better lynch candidate than him. What bothers me is that Pooka seems more concerned at the moment with why he is your top choice rather than who the real scum might be.

On the flip-side Joe is probably also aware things aren't looking peachy for him and is trying to shift things to RW. He doesn't even seem to notice that Pooka is talking you into going with the alternative. They need just one other vote to win the game.

Alternatively there might be a single scum left in which case everyone else is Town and told the truth in their [full] claims. Which means Joe is that scum. But that doesn't really work for me as it would mean that he was less-likely to win SK and that just looks broken to me.

Either way, as much as I would like to smack Pooka down once and for all and be free from all these suspicions and uneasiness, statistically and mechanically Joe looks like the better choice for first scum.

The only thing giving me pause is the fact that RW has become more ascent recently and I'm not sure what that signifies.

Normally I see such behavior from scum who know they are burned and have lost the desire to waste time and effort to try and shift things but RW isn't in nowhere near terrible situation at the moment so that is unlikely.

He might be scum who is just keeping quiet and goes with the flow banking mostly on the head start he has but again, he is not in the worst spot right now so why wouldn't he give it another nudge and get it over with? He may know that both options that are being considered at the moment are winning for him in which case you are his buddy and I'm wasting my time explaining this to you.

He may just be Town who doesn't know what else to do. I know I have my days when I just don't feel like opening the game as it feels like yet another chore for which I don't have the energy or the right state of mind.

Or he may have RL stuff that are more important than the game.

I can't tell, really.

I'm open to hear what everyone thinks and would love to be persuaded that I'm wrong (or re-assured that I'm right) and where the right path lies.

Decisions, decisions.
Posted December 11, 2019
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dedoporno: Either way, as much as I would like to smack Pooka down once and for all and be free from all these suspicions and uneasiness, statistically and mechanically Joe looks like the better choice for first scum.

The only thing giving me pause is the fact that RW has become more ascent recently and I'm not sure what that signifies.
Alright. Your reasons for preferring Joe over Pooka sound sensible. I'll wait for RW's statement. His silence really isn't helping. But unless some big, sudden reveal happens I will probably be up for lynching Joe tomorrow. For now, however, I have to go to bed.
Posted December 11, 2019
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dedoporno: Either way, as much as I would like to smack Pooka down once and for all and be free from all these suspicions and uneasiness, statistically and mechanically Joe looks like the better choice for first scum.

The only thing giving me pause is the fact that RW has become more ascent recently and I'm not sure what that signifies.
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Lifthrasil: Alright. Your reasons for preferring Joe over Pooka sound sensible. I'll wait for RW's statement. His silence really isn't helping. But unless some big, sudden reveal happens I will probably be up for lynching Joe tomorrow. For now, however, I have to go to bed.
"Statistically and mechanically?"
I might as well have just kept quiet the whole game mightn't I?

---

Okay right.

I was thinking about it and my preference is Lifthrasil and RWarehall.

- I think Pooka is a bad lynch.
- If it's RW and Dedo, what the heck was Dedo's "I jailed Pooka" claim today about?
(Dedo - you mentioned that you had a document with your first-draft early claim saved today, I considered asking to see it at the time, but decided it was useless persuing that course as I'd just decided you were mechanically clear. Now I wish I'd asked. Would you mind sharing it, if you still have it?)
- If it's RW alone how did he know my role?
- If it's Lifthrasil alone, why did he get fixated on lone-scum?

But that makes no sense if you look at the town rosta - 4 vanillas, a cop, an x-shot jailer who can't protect the cop, and a bodyguard who can't protect the cop.
What's the point in the bodyguard? There's only one role other than vanilla it can actually protect and if it dies protecting a vanilla it's kinda a waste of everybody's time. At worst it will just distract from who the mafia were actually targeting, at best it will clear a role who was targeted because the bodyguard left clever breadcrumbs of who they were targeting the night before, at DOUBLE worst it will protect a mafia from being killed by the serial killer!!

Even if the rosta was 3 vanillas, a messed-up roleblocker/jack of all trades who's second-most-useful ability is WATCHER, an x-shot jailer and an unprotectable cop it doesn't look that useful.


RWarehall, what are your remaining abilities?

everybody else any particular objection to RWarehall sharing what abilities he has left?

Ah no fuck it - thinking about it in context Watching dedo would be a fairly sensible move, even if you had some other abilities.

RW, ignore my previous question do whatever you want I don't care.


Here's what I think went down:
Night 1, Lift kills ZFR. The team think ZFR's a strong player who's not got much information tied to him. They decide Lift should kill while RW hunts for roles.
Night 2, RW tries to kill dedo, gets jailed. Dedo's already establishing himself as untouchable. With RW's one-shot rolecop ability used they think it best to save his other ability for later.
Night 3, RW tries to kill Dedo, gets Carr. Lift does nothing/something. They reckon RW's seeded Jack-of-all-trades claim was accepted so RW's unlikely to be blocked again.
Day 3, RW claims to have targeted Dedo with a watch, just in case. Lift claims to have tried to block RedFire BUT he gets the block flavour confused, accidentally mimicking RW's "jailed" 'locked-in-the-room' flavour, rather than something similar to Dedo's "asceticed" 'couldn't find my tools' flavour.
Night 0, Trent gets whacked on speed and designs the funniest town rosta he can think of and spends all night laughing to himself.


Okay. It doesn't sound very plausible does it? There are some nice things in there (I can't take credit for the Lift-block-flavour thing I think dedo pointed it out, but now that I'm considering Lift as possible scum again it's very compelling.) but there's also some disquieting things, even leaving Night 0 aside.


So what? I'm down to choosing by mechanics, rather than reads? I read Pooka as town. I would bet money on Pooka being town (NMiller, SirP? You interested?). Dedo's made his choice by statistics and mechanics and he's wrong, My pride won't allow me to do it.


I'm up past my bedtime so I'm just posting this now - if you're going to misinterpret what I wrote, could you ask me about it before you read the worst into it? I found today pretty exhausting :p

^ I should delete that because it's me being a passiveaggressive whiny liddle bitch but fuck it it stays in
Posted December 11, 2019
What was there to really post. I was sick this weekend, but still, I can get into an argument over any of these wall posts supposedly going over all the possibilities and failing miserably. Instead, I kept watching what angles each person was taking.

Here's the elephant in the room...why Agent? Agent was found dead in his room...not outside in a hallway or anything else. For all these deep analyses, and some credit to Lift for pointing this out, why no other discussion about this?

Why do I think that was...scum chose Agent because they thought they could pass shade on Dedo better than Agent and use the confusion over his Bodyguard role to their benefit. So let's look at the posts today.

Pooka came out of the gate and spent all day pushing Dedo as an equal suspect. Only relenting when the mechanics (which were already discussed yesterday clearing Dedo) made this an impossibility.

Lift started the day lukewarm about it but left it as a possibility, relenting as analysis went full circle to Day 3.
Joe mostly ignored it at the beginning. But is the one who eventually brought up the mechanical clearing of Dedo.

I really get the feeling the scum plan was to create doubt about Dedo hence their direct targeting of Agent. Pooka is 100% consistent with such a plan and his partner laid back to see how it worked. Was it Lift playing devil's advocate? Or Joe, holding off until he saw the smear campaign failed?

The center of everything is Pooka. As to Joe, no Town should be placing the first vote at a potential LyLo. Especially someone far from cleared...I especially don't like Joe's push for what else I may or may not be able to do...why is that so important? Or are you looking for more info so tonight's lynch will be guaranteed to work?

I'm leaning to Joe/Pooka as that scum team...Lift/Pooka maybe. Dedo was cleared yesterday unless you really think he'd be giving up a chance at MyLo for confusion.
Posted December 11, 2019
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JoeSapphire: (Dedo - you mentioned that you had a document with your first-draft early claim saved today, I considered asking to see it at the time, but decided it was useless persuing that course as I'd just decided you were mechanically clear. Now I wish I'd asked. Would you mind sharing it, if you still have it?)
It's gotten stale so I can't recover it fully but I think what I do have should cover what you're asking for.

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JoeSapphire: everybody else any particular objection to RWarehall sharing what abilities he has left?
I don't see the point in that. If you don't trust him already sharing his supposed remaining abilities are unlikely to change your mind. There are no more hidden roles/abilities to which the new reveal would make sudden sense. On the flip-side RW may have something left that could make all the difference if we lynch successfully together and have to survive another night. If he is scum he can lie in whatever way he wants and it will be all the same.


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RWarehall: Here's the elephant in the room...why Agent? Agent was found dead in his room...not outside in a hallway or anything else. For all these deep analyses, and some credit to Lift for pointing this out, why no other discussion about this?
I was just about to mention the same to Joe's N3 re-imaging but then I realized it doesn't make sense to find him anywhere else. When did you play a game where the bodyguard's body was found at his target's place? Yeah, that's what I thought. That would be revealing information which doesn't have to be revealed by the mod so it's most likely left ambiguous by design. There are a number of things that can be the flavorful explanation on why it works like that and it's up to Trent to come up with them.

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RWarehall: As to Joe, no Town should be placing the first vote at a potential LyLo. Especially someone far from cleared...
Not a fan of that either although I don't see what the cleared part has to do with anything. I'm cleared (or as cleared as anyone could be under these circumstances). Does that mean I get a pass to vote whomever I feel like voting on my own volition? It doesn't as I'm not playing the game by myself and my decision might affect everyone if I happen to be wrong. The lynch should be agreed on by at least the minimum amount of players needed to secure it and then we throw the dice as a group accept the consequences.
I agree that a Town player shouldn't be voting just like that with the amount of confusion and uncertainty we have. I really don't like the second statement as it just looks like throwing a jab for the sake of making the first bit look even worse.

RW, you primary choice is Pooka then?

@Pooka, who is yours?
Posted December 11, 2019
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dedoporno: RW, you primary choice is Pooka then?
As to the flavor, maybe a Bodyguard would be found dead in a common area. But since I know no one visited you, and I find it hard to imagine scum targeting anyone else but you or Agent, to me it's a non-debate.

It sure looks like Pooka went all out trying to bring your Townliness into question when I thought it was pretty well established previously that you are essentially cleared (barring you sandbagging a kill which would have brought the game presumably to MyLo which seems rather unlikely). It's the biggest red flag of the day. Then again, he could not have done the NK.

I guess so. I can see arguments with Lift and his strange claim. I actually didn't read Joe as all that scummy until that last vote. I was waiting all day to see who would be the first to propose a lynch.

As they said in the Godfather...
DON CORLEONE: Listen, whoever comes to you with this Barzini meeting, he's the traitor. Don't forget that.

As to being cleared, frankly I give your opinion far more weight as I do question the potential motivations of everyone else...and at the end of the day, in many ways, at any MyLo or LyLo, it usually comes down to the opinions of confirmed Town if they exist. There's no spin.
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionForum Mafia #63 Supernatural(876 posts)(876 posts)
(876 posts)