In case you are interested, I've laid off Joe today because I think it's too easy. By that, I mean I was targeted for a kill on the immediate suspect should have been Joe today. And Joe, as much as you say you'd set yourself up like that if you were scum, I don't find it likely. If I died like I was supposed to, I don't think you'd have been able to talk your way out of it.

I do have to wonder about anyone claiming they need to look back at what happened between me and Joe...conveniently forgetting? Although I have to admit Lift has a point over Joe's vote reasoning, it doesn't make sense.

I've had a migraine all day, not able to really think through more than that. Something is very fishy here. Way too many people not really trying to analyze and join in on votes for "easy" reasons that are less easy when one things about things.

Time is ticking.
Something just occurred to me that I have forgotten, ZFR was Macho cop, so there is no chance agent could've saved him. With a one-shot jailer, a macho cop, a bodyguard who can't protect the cop, I feel that town might be underguned against 3 scum which maybe could do 2 kills/night. So if we have only one, who could that be? And why was there only one NK in the first night? Maybe it's time to revisit RFG after N1.

I wonder if RFG meant by this that he targeted pooka. I mean if I were SK I would certainly try to lynch anyone who survived my attempt.
And he was trying to push pooka to claim...
And some more pooka stuff.

Unless, of course, he left different breadcrumbs for a variety of roles, so that he can pick a suitable later. But I didn't have time to check that yet and it would be a lot of effort too. I don't think Agent went to that length.

Challenge not accepted. But I am willing to resolve that discrepancy in the predictable way:

vote Joe

And why do you imply that everyone who has you and RW as possible scum team must have been asleep Day 2? Did you get RW lynched there? No. Could your conflict with RW be distancing? Yes.

I've made that point several times. 3 scum in 2 killing teams seems overkill against Town. But others made the argument that 2 lone scum, one of which is overpowered (Death), would be terribly unfair against the lone Kitsune. All we know is that if we do have 1 lone scum it can't be RW. It most likely isn't Agent (unless he is a rogue Angel ... but that wouldn't fit the Kitsune-style of ZFR's death). It probably isn't dedo and I know it isn't me. So that would leave Joe or you or Pooka. In that order of preference.

Ah, I thought it was a Trent post thus hard verifying Agent.

Well, you got a good point, why haven't I voted JoeSapphire?

Out of the three.

RFG is referring to me saying that he's trying to cast shade on me by saying that my refusal to claim was a softclaim, and that softclaims are scummy. I wouldn't take what he said as a point that he tried to off me, plus it wouldn't make sense as since I'm a controversial figure, it would be in his interest to keep me alive at night so that he may push my lynch and waste our time.

With Agent's intermittent frequency of posts, I myself doubt he would've put out that many breadcrumbs.

I was thinking of that too. In this game, it wouldn't be that far off to think that scum are doing everything to distance from each other.

So we're back to the Joe/Lift conflict. Do I trust Lift or do I trust Joe?

@RW: so you're saying, that no way scum!Joe would've targeted you?

But that is of course WIFOM. Sure, with your conflict if you are Town and Joe is Scum, killing you would point to Joe. But if you both were Town, Scum would also know that and might kill you for exactly that reason. Which Joe, as Scum, could have pointed out if you had been killed last Night. ... And if you both are Scum together, then the entire point is moot anyhow, since you weren't Joe's target at all, but were the one who was trying to perform the kill.


@all: on the RW or Joe or me debate: well, I am obviously against lynching me. My first reaction to having to reconsider Agent as Town was, 'Well, then RW must be scum!'. However, thinking more about it, I feel that Joe would be the better lynch. RW can only be scum if there is another. Which might be Joe. Joe can be scum together with someone else or on his own. So there is one scenario more in which Joe can be scum. ... The same is true for all others apart from RW and Agent, but out of those, Joe feels the scummiest. Which doesn't make RW a bad lynch. His connection to the failed NK still means that he has a higher than average likelihood of being scum. Just not higher than Joe's likelihood of being scum, IMO.

Just to be sure: you are basing the exclusion of RW out of your scum-pool on the assumption, that there is only one scum left, right?

Sorry, guys, I have been doing some OT and didn't have enough time since last evening to think things through. Even now I won't be able to read the new stuff, just dropping by to let you know. I'll do my best to catch up after work and go back a bit and try to figure out what to do but I'm concerned the day may end before that.

@Trent, if you are taking requests, please don't end the day until tomorrow as I remember it was a possibility. I'll do my best for tonight though.

Perhaps, but how does knowing RedFire's target help us?


Has there never been games where a scum has been able to kill and use a power in the same night?


Uhuh.
So where do Carr, Dedo and Blotunga fit into your reads?


Well mafias are threat to a serial killer, so if he thought you were mafia he might well target you. Had you considered that?


lol


To draw attention to the fact that RW ALMOST GOT ME LYNCHED Day 2. Something nobody has even mentioned despite three people saying that Joe and RW are the most obvious scum team and one person saying "I hadn't considered that I better go and look over their behaviours so far *vanishes into OT in a puff of handsomeness*"

Did I get RW lynched Day 2? No. I didn't try.
Could the way I've been treating RW be distancing? On paper it could be.
Could the way RW's treated me be distancing? No - if we were a scum team the term for what he did Day 2 would be 'Bussing'.
Could you all have been asleep for all of Day 2?.. I concede it's unlikely.

---

You say I feel the scummiest - what is that feeling? Can you describe it?

I find myself imagining what it will be like if Lift flips town. It's quite possible. I imagine it being quite hopeless. Especially if he is a power role. It would narrow down the pool further to Blotunga, Pooka and RW (I put them here in scummiest to least-scummy order) with two of those three saying it's me, and the chance that RW will turn on me again. There may be some night results and a mass claim but I can't imagine it turning out too well... There's the chance that Lift is correct-despite-suggestion-pointing-to-the-contrary and there IS only one other threat to town... but I'm not holding out hope for that either.

So I think - IS Lift mafia?
He's been fairly OMGUS-driven - Day One he conflicts early with Pooka but when I vote him for no reason he votes me and argues for my lynch for pretty much the rest of the day. Day Two I make it clear that I'm not interested in his lynch anymore, and he leaves off for a little to study Carr, though he did return to my wagon shortly, leading up to the end of the Day, being undecided between mine and RedFire's, but ultimately preferring RedFire's. Day Three he begins complimenting my Day opening, and then consistently picking at things I've said. He stays Carr focused until Carr's claim, and RW and Joe vote for him, at which point RW and Joe become his two scummiest reads.

^ This is totally focused on my experience with Lifthrasil, but I can't really remember how he reacted to the rest of you all. :/

I do find it hard to believe that he GENUINELY thinks I murdered ZFR just so that I could argue that I wouldn't have.
I can see how it makes an appealing theory, but... I have no reason to want him dead and I have reason to keep him alive.
The only reason I'd want to kill him is to rely on the argument that I couldn't have killed him; so I begin the Day by making "why would someone kill ZFR?" my main topic in order to try to convince you all that I had no reason to kill him and so couldn't have done it. It's too complicated (and I like to think you wouldn't believe I'd be so heavy handed).
The explanation for 'Why is ZFR dead when Joe had reason to keep him alive and no reason to want him dead' is as simple as it looks - I didn't kill ZFR.

This One-Man-Mafia-Team fixation... Sometimes I think - "Is this Derp?" "Should I be treating this as the Derp-Clear?"
Argh. Maybe I should.
There's Lift-thinks-it-wouldn't-be-fair-on-town-otherwise to suggest that there is only one mafia.
There's flavour and convention to suggest that there are multiple mafia
Why should the game be fair on Town? The last game Trent hosted was an imbalanced grab-your-power freeforall.
What benefit do we get from assuming that there's only one mafia, other than a still-arguable clear of RWarehall?

Are these scum tells? Dedo, Carr, if you tell me now "Joe, you're reading too much into it." "Joe, you're blinded by the OMGUS" "Joe, you make no fuckin sense you mad bastard" I'll trust your judgement.

Buuuutttt... then I like to imagine what it will feel like if Lift flips scum. I imagine it fleetingly because it feels dangerous to feel so pre-emptively smug...

So it doesn't take long to go back to Town-Lift fear.

---

Maybe I'm wrong. If he really does believe that I killed ZFR then that wouldn't be sinister, it would just be wrong.
If he really does believe that there is a one-man-mafia-team it wouldn't be sinister it would just be illogical - and not even all that illogical either - he's got reason to think it. Just because I think the reason's wrong, it doesn't mean that Lift is wrong.

I usually pride myself in thinking "Just because someone's wrong, it doesn't mean that they're scum".


I've been writing this for over an hour and a half now (sorry!) so I'm going to stop.
Feedback would be greatly appreciated! From everybody.


---

hmmm... just before I go
Actually, no that doesn't make sense.

I was going to point out that everybody's top town-reads, Carr and Dedo are currently Town-Reading Joe, while everybody else in the mire is currently scum-reading Joe so EVIDENTLY that means the scum are scum-reading Joe, so Joe can't be scum.

THEN I THOUGHT ABOUT IT AND IT'S WRONG FOR SO MANY REASONS Including:
-Dedo isn't Town-Reading me, as far as I can tell. He's not said he thinks I'm scum in a while, but he's not said much of anything in a while. Which is a shame, I blame the Other Things.
-RW isn't scum-reading me which kind of everybody's deal right now isn't it? (It's also a fairly strong point in RW's favour, now that I think about it, he has very little to lose by joining my wagon)
-It doesn't take into account the fact that from your point of view Joe might be scum, and he's not scum-reading himself.

Ah well. I probably shouldn't have wasted time writing all that, but it can't hurt to demonstrate a bit of brain-in-action.

BLARG POST NOW

On my walk home this came to mind and I found it quite compelling. I like the image of town-lift discovering he's wrong and his mind doing a flip.

But...

Lift why does your mind not consider blotunga as the possible? Or Pooka? Maybe it did but you skipped that part in this summary...



Imagine if it was Dedo?

Hooray!

haha I realise that I'm basically saying "Lift doesn't beleve I didn't kill ZFR so he must be scum"

but really what I mean is: I don't believe that Lift believes that I was the one who did kill ZFR.

I'm caught up with the recent stuff.

First of all, even if you didn't do think because I asked, thanks for allowing the extra time, Trent!


As far as my own experience (or at least memory) goes I don't think I've ever seen a game in which one scum can act twice in the same night targeting different people in the process (I'm talking about actively choosing to do so and not some additional passive ability that was triggered by someone else). It doesn't mean it's impossible if the mod decides to allow it but in my book this would be an extreme edge case (borderline bastard if not fully so) so I wouldn't consider it unless there is compelling evidence supporting it.

I'm quite torn (this goes for a couple of people) about you. You have moments that just confuse me and others that show lots of effort and paying attention to details which I appreciate. Seeing how a few people are voting for you already and it looked like you might be it for Today I did feel a bit bad about it so I may indeed be seeing you a bit more on the Townie side after all. I really want you to be Town but unfortunately I can't be sure.

I'm really glad that we have another 24 hours or so and I can go back and look at interactions between people. There are quite a lot of cases where interactions during these 3 Days have pretty much made certain couples borderline impossible (unless some there was some extremely risky distancing going on that paid off in the end) to the point where I'm no longer sure who CAN be scum so we have 2 scum. At the same time I still refuse to accept that we have only 1.

Speaking of this, it does bother me a bit that Lift is (was?) fixated on having just one scum left, other things about him also bothered me but I still remember this time when I was persuaded of similar things by sly cum and helped lynch him only to find out that he was exactly how I read him initially.

One of the things I also like to check for is Blotunga + Pooka or Lift + Blotunga.