It’s Thanksgiving here in the US so I know anyone here will be scarce today. I will still be around, so feel free to lynch someone if it tickles everyone’s fancy :-)

Easy. Lynch all liars. If RW - or anyone, for that matter - claims something that directly contradicts something he said before, we lynch him. Why raise worry about a hypothetical claim-alteration that no one, in their right minds, would try?
I get it that you want to know the number of shots any claimed PR has ... it would tie people down stronger so that they, if they are scum, have less lee-way for tailoring their full claims later. However, you know who has even more interest in knowing who has PR-shots left and who isn't dangerous anymore? Scum! Therefore, by prodding for this information, you help scum more than town. Intended? Or did you just not think it through?


For the record: I agree that that was a soft-claim. But Agent confirms that he has a PR further down. So this became a moot point.


Actually I agree with you. I still feel that a game of this size with three scum roles split in two camps who have a nightkill each would be next to impossible to balance. So, my feeling is too that there is only one Kitsune. If you check the OP, it only says that there were multiple Kitsune kills, which doesn't necessarily mean multiple Kitsune. It just says that we're dealing with Kitsune. Not a Kitsune, not several Kitsunes. It just states the race, not the number.
The more I think about it, the more I am sure that the only way how we could have two Kitsunes would be my idea about Death only killing if there is no other kill. That is still a possibility.

But let's discuss the implications if there is only on Kitsune: it has been established, that RW can't be it. He apparently had a successful investigative action in N1 and the flavour points to a Kitsune-kill. Not a Death-kill. So, if there is only one scum left, RW is basically cleared and therefore probably was last Nights target. The only way how RW can be scum, is if there are two scum left.


At least you didn't share your thoughts. Which creates the impression that you just voted out of the blue.
As for RW being 'not careful' with his vote: you gave him reason to vote. An OMGUS reason, sure, but it makes RWs vote come less out of the blue than yours. Or in schoolyard-terms: you started it!

You say you discuss with your vote. Which is fine. Except that I don't see much discussion coming from you to support that vote. So, how about sharing your thoughts? Why do you think that RW is our scum in spite of everything that was discussed? In spite of his apparently correct read on Joe?
But you know what, discussing with my vote sounds like a good idea. So until I have a satisfactory elaboration on your vote from you:
vote agent

Interesting. As I said above, I disagree. Why do you think that 2 scum, one of which was superpowered, with an NK each would be unbalanced in favour of Town? The two possible NKs make it already quite difficult for us, unless there's a mechanic in place assuring that not more than one NK can take place (see above)

But maybe you're right and we should rather assume the worst. So you're not as cleared as I thought after all. I'll wait for agent's response. Maybe he has some input on that.

Meanwhile: happy Thanksgiving to all those in the US!

This is correct. Unfortunately I believe it's unwise to assume only one scum until there is evidence supporting that. Imaging the following scenario:

- we mislynch on D1
- Kitsune targets Death; Death targets Kitsune
- Death survives because he is bulletproof
- Kitsune dies

This makes the game balance even worse for the Kitsune. Normally the SK is scum who is less likely to win. In this case it's the other way around. The Kitsune that isn't protected like Death has the shorter end of the stick. Even if the lone Kitsune has a way of surviving Death's attack even once, it still has it worse as people are aware of its existence and are actively looking for it.

I just don't see that being the case. I'm more inclined to think that there is two of them and they are powerless and only rely on numbers so they don't get too much advantage.

If he's got information on what's going on which can help us find the scum, I want it. Besides, he's now put himself in a nice little predicament: you claimed, RW claimed and Joe claimed, and all claims effectively end with saying "we've used up our 1-shots." Killing you won't muddy the waters as much as killing potentially Town Agent who has yet to release his information and actually claimed he's got a role.

Yes, please read above paragraph.

Fine. You've got a point here. I'll trust you on this one.

I was having a harder time reading him yesterday, but after his claim and how he played your reveal, he resonates Town to me. I was already unwilling to lynch him yesterday, but now he's just higher up. The only people who remain on my neutral list are Agent (he climbed up a great bit on Day 2 but tanked Day 3 due to his behavior) and blotunga (I still think his willingness to toss Lift town points out of the window at some opportunities is suspect as heck). Willing to lynch those two.

It doesn't look pretty yes. Do take into account that RFG was Ascetic, so none of the revealed roles would have been of any use on him. Perhaps there is a vigilante that could take RFG out? Then again, our Game Master is trent, who has an expressed distaste of using mechanics for scumhunting (or as people call it "outguessing the mod" for some reason). I'm beginning to wonder if the game setup was made just to emphasize how figuring out the setup through roles can be useless.

Happy Thanksgiving!

The intention was not helping scum, but just as you say, tie him from getting the wriggle room. Come to think of it, why would he say that as Town? If he's Town, he knows we wouldn't be so receptive to the idea of a one-shot role cop altering his previous claim by having two results (I already am even though it's just a potential scenario right now). The only thing I can think of is that he's trying to make the mafia panic and get him killed, but then Agent's softclaim happened days beforehand and just ten hours ago he claimed a role without releasing info. So there is a chance RW lives to the next day.

Perhaps he's not going to alter his role at all? Perhaps someone visited him Night 1?


I love this theory and wish it was true. But you bring up a good point: I failed to mention Joe in my previous post. You made me remember him. I can't recall a single thing he did on Day 3. All I can remember is that he claimed vanilla town to match up with RW's role investigation. People say RW is playing close to his chest, but Joe is marking that checkbox for me right now. I remember him voting Lift out of the blue in Day 1, I remember the talks about parlor tricks in Day 2, but Day 3? Nigh nothing. So he's still in that neutral list, same as before, with the same willingness to lynch if not stronger.

Happily??

Poor choice of words. I mean to say that you were ready stay away from the viable lynch at the time which was Pooka and leave it to others to take care of [a] lynch. Even though you were reportedly done for the day you managed to get back on, stay a while longer and take part in GR's wagon (which you said is not a good wagon but still took part in it). That's what I wanted to I was trying to convey but didn't use proper words. Apologies.

Do you think I would? If I were scum, I had reason to keep ZFR alive (his stupid launch of GameRager's wagon, his seemed connection with Lifthrasil, I also reason to argue why ZFR shouldn't be killed (twice in a row day 1 is mean), and. Would I have gone for ZFR just so I could argue WIFOM, do you think?

Oh you!

That's ZFR, RW, Dedo, Joe, Carr. Are the only two that haven't softclaimed at all (gate or no gate) Lift and Pooka?

It's never a popular suggestion, but would a mass claim be sensible at this time?..

Everybody seems fixated enough on the mechanics already. Scum's target pool is narrowed to Carr, Pook and Lift already, and there's a good chance one of them is scum. Do we have more to gain than we have to lose?

@everybody ^ This?


okay yeah. The reason I asked is because when I was wondering "why would scum RW target me?" I remembered that at the beginning of Day 1 I put the word 'strong' into my posts a few times in a slightly awkward way. I don't really know what I was planning, but I just wanted to get a bit of attention from scum looking for breadcrumbs. When I thought about it more later I thought 'the only thing that would really be breadcrumbing is Strongarm' and then I was worried because breadcrumbing that I'm the mafia strongarm is EXACTLY the sort of thing I would do.

Anyway, I take it you didn't pick up on that?



I just thought - you mentioned before that Joe-confirming-RW's-action gives RW town points, but should it? He maybe deserves some 'not stupid points', in the same way that Joe-not-lying-about-his-role-to-counter-RW should only give him 'not-a-total-idiot' points.


^be careful Carr! Lift voted me day two saying "until Joe answers my question..." after I had a chance to answer his question he carried on voting for me anyway. I do not think he is entirely genuine.


^This doesn't sense... do it?


Your theory's nice, but it is wrong. Wait till we've all forgotten about it then run a setting with this mechanic.



If I'd have got back to discover that the only viable wagon was pooka's I'd have voted pooka. - If I'd got back to discover that the only viable wagon was any of y'alls I'd have voted for ya!

---

Do I think it's Carr?

Not really. - The logic of 'there was no kill and someone got blocked' is beautiful in its simplicity. I don't begrudge him voting RW.
I'm finding Lift and RW problematic this day. Lift has been interpreting my actions negatively with some focus (that sounds weeeeeak when I say it but that's my thought. I can elaborate on it later if anyone's interested), and recently had a bit of shaky logic. RW has been very mechanics/roles focused. His most recent post is the only one of the game with any real reads.

I'm used to Pooka, for example, getting caught up thinking about and wanting to work out mechanics, but from what I've seen of RW this game, it's not what I'd expect from him. Does anyone who's played with him recall if it's a habit of his?

---


Pay more attention. I don't like to be ignored.

Speaking of which:

Dude, you told us you were watching and gauging reactions. Were you lying? What did you see? How did you gauge it?

Simply put. I've never been a fan of everyone throwing out full reads lists. I played as scum and used it to my advantage multiple times. It's easy to look at those lists, find a player who is mildly suspected by most everyone but not the top of their lists and nudge them as a suspect. You already know exactly how much support it gets.

As such, I try to keep most of my cards face down on the table so it's not so easy for them to gauge where I stand. Plus, there are people I'm still quite on the fence with. For example, you and Pooka. I see a lot of your actions having strong potential to be scum manipulation and I can potentially see similar in some of Pooka's tunneling. But the flipside is I can see both as overzealous scum-hunting although your two styles are different. It's a question I'm still trying to resolve.

That said, I just gave a very rough reads list.

Right now, I'm pretty firm on Agent. His last post seems to confirm he is flailing to defend himself. He seems unable to explain his vote and he got stuck trying to prematurely push my wagon. My vote on him was both OMGUS but calculated and with firm reason. I was ready to vote either him or Blotunga with just one more post crossing "the line". Agent did that by asking for your confirmation and still voting me in the same post. It told me your confirmation didn't matter to him whether to lynch me, but...he DID want to know the result. Why might he want to know for sure if you have a role or not if he was going to vote me regardless?

Joe, you are asking what reactions I was watching and gauging...it's simple. I know I'm Town. No NK occurred so its most probably because I was the target outside some remote chance some other unknown role blocked the kill. I was looking for who might be trying to spin this to get Town to finish the job for them. And we have Agent "conveniently ignoring" the likelihood I was the target and protected with Blotunga who pushed the same for a bit before backing away.

Hmm. The way you put it, this makes sense.


No. I refuse to believe that. A third killing role? Highly unlikely!

Nice theory. Sounds convincing. You have a way of putting things in a very credible way. ... I just hope you aren't scum after all and are stringing me along!

Yes. Considering that you pointed out the very next day that you wouldn't have killed ZFR (and thereby implying that you can't be scum), I think it is possible that this contributed to your decision. That you reasoned that no one would connect you to a ZFR kill and that he would therefore be a good target. ... And the reason to leave ZFR alive because of his part in GR's wagon was valid for all possible scum, not only you. Didn't stop them (or you) from killing him.


Yes, at this point a full claim could help Town more than it does damage. So if the others agree, I'm up for it. But I suggest that Agent starts - he's more suspicious than Pooka right now, I think, and is the one with the most votes on him.

Well, it is true that scum would not have lied about an investigation result. However, RW can't have investigated you and killed ZWR at the same time. He could still be part of a two-player scum-team, of course. But I am with dedo that scum should be powerless if they are two. Why do you disagree on that? You have only written that you do, but haven't explained why.

OK. You got me there. I have worded it wrongly. ;-) I should have written "at least until Joe answers my question". Same is true now. I want an answer from agent and I'm going to keep my vote there (at least) until he answers. But him answering won't automatically make me retract my vote. Especially not if the answer isn't satisfying.

I considered this for a while but wouldn't say the time has come. I'm not a fan of mass claims as it tends to take away from the fun of the game. Leaving that aside, we have a lot information already out, why feed the scum more so they can pick their targets from a smorgasbord? I'd say it's too early for this but that's me.

Of course it does. For the sake of discussion let's assume that the SK and the lone Kitsune are exactly the same, but one is a Serial Killer while the other is Mafia whatever. Other than that, power-wise, they are exactly the same thing. Everyone knows the Kitsune exist, no one knows the Serial Killer exists until that it becomes obvious. Don't you think the hidden guy has a bit of an edge over his counterpart, regardless how small or short-lived it might be?

But of course!


Right back at you.

If Agent goes first and you, or others don't like it do we stop or do we keep going according to plan?

I would say if we agree on a mass claim, everyone should claim. I just want agent to start so that he has a harder time manufacturing his claim around the others. ... The only exception would be if he claims something that can be immediately proven wrong by someone. In that case he would be outed as scum and we lynch him as liar and there would be no need to expose other potential PRs.

Well, that applies to pretty much anyone who hasn't claimed yet and agent already set a bit of a scaffolding for his claim so he couldn't get too crazy with it:

@Agent, are you fine going first of it's decided that the mass claiming is happening?

I'd like to see you analyse when you only have 15 minutes a day and you're on mobile. gl hf.

Weren't you the one who pointed out that role cop is more often Scum than Town? Why does RW knowing that Joe is vanilla mean that RW is Town?

Why the frog would I throw myself in the limelight to try and get you in particular lynched?!? This is the worst time of the game to generically push wagons.

As I pointed out above, Joe confirming your knowledge of his role doesn't mean you're Town.

BTW, my vote on you wasn't OMGUS, but it was "calculated and with firm reason." Namecalling shouldn't get you anywhere, though apparently it is.

I'm quite happy to go first. I have no need to "manufacture a claim". I'm willing to claim whether or not a mass claim is decided upon. My role gets perhaps even stronger once a mass claim has happened.

So do I claim?