At least with the NK having been prevented it won't be game over if we mislynch. Without that prevented NK we would be at MYLO right now. Still, I'd rather hit scum. So let's take the time we need. We have two options:
Lynch RW and hope that he is scum
Or assume RW is town and try to figure out who targeted him.

I am currently undecided. Lynching RW has a decent chance of hitting scum. If only because of the possibility that his jail prevented him from killing.
However, if he is Town, targeting him fits the previous targeting of ZFR. Both are low information targets. ZFR more so, since it was earlier in the game. But among the living players RW is the one with the least interactions with others. So the minimal information target. I can totally see the player(s) who decidet that ZFR would be a good target deciding to go after RW now.

So, who are those players who would have targeted both?
1. Joe. He admitted so himself in the RW case
2. Pooka - yes, it would make sense to townread RW and then off him. But it would also make sense for scum to take note of Town-pookas read and use that in their kill decision.
3. Agent? - He seems quite eager to vote without actually entering the ongoing discussion. Now I wonder: is he overeager scum trying to get his NK target lynched? Or is he overeager scum jumping at the chance to distance himself from his kind of exposed scumbuddy? Or is he overeager Town? The latter doesn't feel likely, since town has no reason to be overeager and every reason to be careful right now.

So my willing to lynch bracket currently looks like this:
{RW, agent, Joe, Pooka?}
Pooka with a question mark, since he still feels towny to me. But there are enough quirks to make me doubt that feeling.

One of them: @Pooka, why do you assume that the flipped SK and the remaining Kitsune were a team?

Also, before I decide where to put my vote, I want confirmation from Joe that RWs read on him was true.

Ba-domp

Thanks. I missed your previous post where you confirm your vanilla flavour. You are right, that confirmation moves RW a bit more to the town side. And you too, I think. Scum Joe might have used this opportunity to create confusion, all-but ensure RWs lynch and claiming a PR in one go by contradicting the read.

I might have targeted RW, but I really doubt I would have gone for ZFR.

He may have, but with another day of lynching ahead I'd like to think Scum Joe would be more sensible than that.

Are you surprised by the group's general response to your claim?

The latest few posts moved agent quite high up on my to-lynch list. Really? Omgus first for whatever you tried on me and now omgus 2x for not waiting to see the reactions left and right.
Anyway at this moment it looks bad for you.

1. Yes, you said that you would not have targeted ZFR, right after he died. Which was a LAMIST statement. After getting flak for that, you might have decided to go to the opposite extreme this time. Which might be why you publicly declared this time, that you would have targeted RW.

2. Yes. Probably Scum-Joe would be more sensible, as you say. So we shouldn't take him off the list if suspects yet.

I might have been lying - but do you think I would have gone for ZFR?

Asking questions fine but how can you tell how well he keeps tabs and to the point where he's probably doing it better than anyone else?


I believe others pointed this out in later posts that I haven't read fully yet but this is a very odd notion.


Does Strongman trump Jailkeeper? I thought it only worked against Doctors, Bodyguards and similar type of protections of the target.

I need to process #523 a bit more after work but on first glance it's a pretty good post that makes a lot of sense and I like it.


That would have ruined all the fun. Teasing has its merits.


What merit does killing Pooka's Towniest read have? To deprive him of a potential ally? Doesn't seem like a good enough reason to me. It would make a lot more sense to kill me or someone else who's death might reflect badly on Town Pooka.


Slightly. I was surprised most people just picked it up without question. I liked that you brought it up (the whole #492 was a nice post).

From the whole bit Agent makes the worst impression of all. I liked how he handled D2 but I'm not a fan of what has been going on Today with him. I don't like the way he automatically was ready to vote the blocked player and after the reveal he just hopped on without thinking twice.


Something else concerns me but I have to think about it a bit more and will most likely bring it up in the evening (a few hours from now).

I wasn't thinking from the merit angle, but from the 'eliminating towny players' angle. My thought was, that scum thought along the same lines as pooka (or even was influenced by what pooka wrote), agreed with RW's towniness and decided to eliminate a strong town player who would be difficult to mis-lynch.

But from the merit angle, you are totally right: it would have made more sense to kill you. You are basically too town to lynch too and more active than RW. That makes you the bigger danger to scum (if you are Town. But if you aren't, you have us all fooled).

As for your question about Strongman Trumps Jailer: yes, a strongman defeats any form of protection or blocking, according to the Mafiascum-wiki. He can't be jailed or blocked and his target cannot protected by Doctors or other protective roles. The only effective way of preventing a Strongman-kill would be a target that isn't there at all. So a Commuter would work.

Okay. Let's say we trust you and choose not to lynch you Today. What guarantees us that you didn't lie about your 1-shot modifier and claim a Townie has a scum aligned role Tomorrow?

It is an interesting theory, then again it is also an interesting game. I am actually implying bastard elements by the whole "team with SK" thing. You do raise a good point about knowing Joe having no role (which Joe verified), so a RW/RFG scumteam couldn't have conceivably killed ZFR, severely weakening my theory.

Well, others have already said their issue about this post, but now I want you to entertain me on this.

Back in Day 2 we were going back and forth about what is a non-claim and what is a soft-claim, but this one does definitely read like a soft-claim if I saw any. Care to elaborate more on what you said? For all we know, it could enforce your opinion on RW or give us a better lead on who we need to go after.

The lack of two nightkills for one, and at the time I didn't think of how a RW/RFG scumteam would be able to kill ZFR and get role info on Joe.

Reading the game and its players (even on Day 1) and his asking of questions gives me that vibe in comparison with Lift who I suspected most of Day 1 and Agent who only picked up the pace on Day 2.


I'll reserve judgment until RW and Agent answer my questions. RW's "I could be a 1-shot and I could also not be one" post is seriously having me worried, and Agent never bringing up this "I have a bit of information" thing again is also suspect.

Got it, I misunderstood what you meant. Thanks for clarifying. It does make some sense.


What are you looking to get out of this line of questioning? A claim?


After some pondering I think I talked myself out of this but I'll share it anyway so whoever feels like it can say what they think. Again, think twice before giving up any more information, we have a lot already.

I was worried that we most likely started with at least 30% anti-Town players and at least 2 distinct NKs for which there is no evidence pointing that they couldn't have been executed successfully on the same night for as long as the game goes on and allows. That's a whole lot of anti-Town killing power and players. My first thought after this became apparent wast that, for the sake of balance, we (Town) had to be all sorts of stacked in order to not lose the game right out of the door with a bit of bad luck for us and a bit of good luck for the scum. Then [claimed] PRs started popping up and it didn't feel like we were that strong after all:

- a Cop that couldn't be protected
- a limited Role cop
- a limited Jailer that may protect someone by may also screw us up by blocking a valuable Town action
- a guy who can't do anything other than look pretty
- a guy whose thing hints at mod shenanigans

It doesn't look exactly fantastic.

After some thinking I realized that even though there are a lot of scum and we look at them as anti-Town they aren't (supposedly) together so they wouldn't win instantly even if they manage to get a couple of kills without hitting each other, which is also a possibility.

Also, even though it seems unlikely it might turn out that there is just one Kitsune after all and things aren't even that bad.

So yeah, this is what has been bugging me Today but now that I thought about it a bit more I think I may have given it too much weight but who knows.

@RW - "Every reason to the contrary." What reason to the contrary? Why should I wait for Joe to confirm nothing before placing my vote?

@RW - ...so if you're not scum, you're not scum.

@blotunga - I said I'd prefer to vote for dedo's target but it wasn't an option. Now it's an option and I don't think RW is Town.

@Lifthrasil - Ongoing discussion of..? I discuss with my vote. Also, no indictment of RW for being just as "not careful" with his vote?

@dedoporno - Hopped on without thought? Who says I didn't think about it?

@Pooka - Yeah, I've got a role. You want me to claim? Also, it's not really all that suspect as no one asked me about it or brought it up.

First off, Pooka, you are getting no more answers about what I may or may not also be able to do...
And the reason for this is quite similar to why you refused to claim Day 1 at L-1. Saying anything about things I haven't done is meaningless to Town. I can't prove what I haven't used (if I have something left to use) and as far as any Town would know I could be making it up. But Scum will know its true because Town should not lie and this would allow them to act accordingly.

Now Scum are left guessing. Is there something I can do that makes attacking me a bad idea? Do I have nothing else and this is a lure to draw a kill away from other PRs? Or am I really a worthwhile target after all?

But just like you on Day 1, you decided any reveal helps Scum more than Town. Besides, I'm not at L-1.

As to game balance, I'm kinda with you. I still think if we have 2 Kitsune left, it is a bit balanced against us but if there is only 1 that would be even more unbalanced in our favor. We have to assume there are probably 2.

As to why I waited. Because I wanted to try to get a read on which of you tried to kill me...simple as that.

Maybe I'm just getting paranoid after someone tried to kill me, but some people have appeared quite more bloodthirsty. Agent dropping a vote while completely ignoring any other options or analysis. Blotunga calling it a 50/50 proposition. Pooka thinking a SK might be part of the actual scum team. I've given you a lot of slack thinking you were just being over exuberant, but this is starting to make me wonder. If ZFR didn't have you as his top suspect at the end of Day 1, you'd be high up on my list. I still think scum will be reluctant to target someone who has just painted an "X" on them just to be safe. So I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

And then there is Joe. I'd think if you were scum, you'd be taking out Dedo instead as his death wouldn't point directly at you. But of course there is WIFOM. As to why I investigated you, I tend to suspect the person who seems to skate the razor's edge of attention but just doesn't attract a critical mass of a wagon. You were in the middle of the Pooka v Lift fight that felt like a Town v Town thing to me and yet avoided any serious push. It's the same reason I used a Vig shot on Agent last game I played. His early proto-wagon mysteriously fizzled in favor of others. I was wrong then, and I might be wrong now (I'm mean you aren't completely off the hook),but this line of reasoning might need some reexamination should you be Town this game, but Night 1, you were a person of intrigue for me when I was looking at who to investigate. I don't believe I have played with you before, so I lose that for reads. And your style is not something I'm used to. Then your result left me with nothing.

I've already talked about Dedo a bit but his posts have been sharp, timely and I find often echoing some of my thoughts. Obviously I don't know he's Town, but I can't imagine voting him today. Lift, I don't know. Lots of good analytical posts, but it is hard to trust him. I've seen him pull off getting called Town as Scum enough times before. At times I see posts that might be buddying up and maybe posts where he is spreading doubt, yet it might also be good analysis as Town presenting all sides of an argument. If he flips Scum I wouldn't be surprised, but I think past games might be coloring my opinion.

Right now Agent is my top suspect. His Day 1 felt guarded. Day 2 felt better and now Day 3 all the analysis went out the window.