I'm not too surprised Joe is now going after me, I mean we can't get in the way of his personal crusade against Lift. I mean, why shouldn't we be all over Lift for not getting Lynched enough day 1 because of his "personality", right? Or blaming your failed "plan" on ZFR who managed to get NK'd...because it's all his fault, right?

Or Joe, maybe you could try to pay attention to this game and make deductions based on actual events, not your personal grudges. Of course, unless you are scum and you want to make a vain attempt to remove a strong player early.

Joe started Day 1 off accusing ZFR and Agent of being scum. With no explanation. (Post #51)
Claiming "strong feeling about this one" (Post #66)
Drops a useful list of reads that doesn't really explain his accusations including the claim Agent had not posted when he had. Some in depth analysis there... (Post #68)
Claims he votes someone from his list and sticks with it (Post #75)
A couple posts just generally questioning random things then...
Votes Lift out of the blue, again no explanation. Not on his "list" despite his claim in #75. (Post #106}
Only explaining it as a "test" for RedFireGaming, then just a "stab in the dark". (Post #125)
More posts just questioning others seemingly randomly.
Pushes Lift's lynch with the "Follow me, I'm Town" being better than following scum silliness. And claiming it somehow "makes sense to look for someone who isn't being provocative" as a reason to lynch Lift while saying its Lift's "turn" to get lynched Day 1. (Post # 154)
Then claims he "made an argument against" Lift in Post #125 while defending his own actions claiming if he were scum he wouldn't seek attention in this way, which is a whole lot of WIFOM but also proves he's aware that attention seeking might throw people off. (Post #155)
And the Day continues with some seemingly random questioning of others actions while staying the course on a Lift lynch that he never provided any real case for until...
He votes GameRager but doesn't unvote. (Post #310)
Was that intentional? Hard to say. Was it a trick? Was it scum realizing he's going to be the hammer and trying to find a way to look more Townly on a lynch he knows is Town?

That was day 1. A lot of parlor tricks and self-dropping a hint he can't be scum because no scum would be that active...why don't I trust that?

----------------

Then Day 2 starts and he tries to blame ZFR who is now dead. Goes on later to explain a lot of reasons why he thought ZFR was scum, but wasn't his vote on Lift? And tries to buddy up with Pooka, and Blotunga trying to imply that the only reason they were suspected was "personality". (Post 354.)
Then goes back to voting Lift after claiming he's looking more Townie.

For someone who is acting as if he is gaining great insight from provoking and paying attention to things, his actions don't seem to match this learning things from the game itself.

I'm still torn as to his tactics. Is this discombobulated mess his usual method of scum-hunting when he is Town?
When he is scum, has he used similar tactics? Please, those who have played with him, give me a heads up...

But what I see sure matches the profile of someone actively pretending to scum-hunt while being so active he "can't possibly be scum". It's filled with parlor tricks, but when it comes down to it, he doesn't seem to actually use any information he's supposedly gaining by shaking things up. Instead, he finds completely unrelated things to cast doubt on others. Now, because I was pretty busy this weekend, I've gone from Townly to scum, not based on anything Joe did this game, but some weird accusation I'd be the only one who might want ZFR NK'd Night 1.

--------------

That said, I don't know what is worse. This gibberish or Post #369 from RedFireGaming. After Joe votes and unvotes Lift. "If this is some kind of evil master plan to trick us into believing you're town, it's working."

Really RFG? I don't get it. What has Joe actually done except theatrics and heavy tunneling?I think I'm going to put my vote here for now. I see no purpose to this but buddying up. Joe might look scummy to me, but this post raises more serious doubts in my mind.

Vote RFG

-------------

As to Agent, frankly, when Joe asked, I mentioned Agent as a "for example". He was the player I had last ISO'd and my conclusion was that he could be scum feigning activity and going with the flow but had not actually done anything wrong. But he was just one of a number of players that might be doing the same. He was in my "I don't know" category". I worry a bit about the players who may be following up on that as it makes me wonder if at least one of them is scum and want to use that to get me lynched in the future for "casting shade". I certainly don't like his flip-flop today, but I this uneasy feeling I might be getting set up is giving me pause at the moment.

I'd say right now, I'm looking at RFG and Joe. Maybe Lift or Agent after that as I wonder if Lift is trying to set me up, or maybe it is Agent.

I believe he's most likely to be Town. I'm not sure of anything. I'm amused that my Town-Scum reads cause so much fluster.

Day 1 is nonsense. Day 2 is game.

OK, I have a bit of time. Regarding his "very bad post":

What about Lift's accusations have been subtle?

Hmmm... Almost like you're not outright accusing Lift, but just trying to "sow distrust but very subtly".

This is not long after Post 300, where you said "For now, I think GR has a better likelihood of flipping scum." Yes, GR had a better likelihood of flipping scum that Lift, yet today he suddenly wasn't a "quality scum lead".

Regarding a couple of other things he's said that strike me as scummy:

That's not a reason. You've played with GR enough to know that his play is unlike that of "normal" players. Also, why the ZFR quote? It's piggybacking while trying to look like you're distancing.

Oh?

I still don't like his definitely-not-a-softclaim. It feels like scum trying to make sure they don't get lynched while they've got an opportunity.

But he's also got some posts that seem Town, particularly
, [url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_63_supernatural/post242]242, and 334.

Also, there's something about Lift and lynching that I don't have the time to track down. Some of the facts he uses didn't seem quite based in reality, if I recall correctly. I'll find it next time I post.

-----

Well... That post was... uninformative.

I don't have any reason to think you're Town. Therefore you're Scum. Change my mind!

Nope. It'd influence my decision. Nope. All hypothetical, of course.

I must not tell lies.

-----

OK, I'm going to bed early with a headache. I'll be back in another 24 hours.

I don't feel like doing some other stuff right now, so, might as well.

For one, the notion that the reasoning he used for RW's "gambler's fallacy" vote on dedo was sarcasm, but when he uses said reasoning for my vote it's not sarcasm.

Nah, not the intention. The intention was trying to figure out what the scum's motives for killing ZFR are, and this observation on how he was going back to Lift had to be made sooner or later.

No, I still say in that post that I thought we hit the jackpot with him, only to be disappointed with a Town flip. That jackpot thing was also implied in post 300, hence the aforementioned "better likelihood." His strange play kept overshadowing everything else until eventually I thought, "this is it, GR must go." Having Day 2 started with several good leads, we have a real chance at getting leads to our scum.

I played with GR for long enough to see him play last game. He was strange then, but not that bad. blotunga was worse and of the mason team, he was ultimately lynched first. This game however, GR was on a whole new level, creating more questions without answers than ever.

Also, the ZFR quote had nothing to do with distancing or piggybacking, but in that context, ZFR said something that then I agreed with. If anything, I've been quoting others (like RFG) and will quote people for things they say that I agree with no matter who they are, what they think of me or what I think of them (all in-game of course).

Again, why is it a softclaim? Why can't it be a refusal to claim instead? I have never implied a power role nor have I implied vanilla, and since it's Day 2 and I'm still allowed to play, it was for the best that I didn't claim.

Links were brok, I fixed. Also, thanks. I guess from what you've said so far, I can see why you believe the towny things I said outweigh the scummy ones but "the scale could be tipped pretty easily, though." So far, anyone reading your post would think I'm scum hiding in plain sight, until they get to this part. However, if there's one thing I can ask for, can you find any posts that you think seem Town on Day 2, where they'd be more relevant?

Please do.

I wouldn't restrict myself by who was killed when in the last game if I were Scum. It's not Scum's job to be nice and as Scum I would always try to go after PRs first or if there were not clues to who the PRs are, I would just go after known strong players. The only niceness I would allow myself as scum is not going after new players in N1. Just as newbies have a kind of D1 lynch-protection. You don't want to scare new players away. But apart from that everyone is fair game.

But why would RW specifically target ZFR? Or more precisely, why do you think ZFR's death implicates RW? I can't find any interaction between them on D1 that would be a threat to RW.

I am trying to set you up? By prodding you to participate more? *raised eyebrow* If making you participate is 'setting you up', then you must have something to hide. If you don't, please explain how I am 'setting you up'!
Also you make some quite good points against Joe - and then proceed to vote RFG for buddying up to Joe. If Joe is Scum, why would other Scum buddy up to him? And why don't you vote Joe, if he looks scummy to you? Do you want to avoid the appearance of OMGUS?


This still looks strange to me. You collect some good points against Pooka, yet you vote RFG because you don't have a Town-read on him. I can't help but suspect a pattern there. Both you and RW collect points against one player and then default to RFG, instead of voting the player you collected the most points against. ... In your case at least you explained why Pooka still looks towny to you. But somehow I have the feeling that RFG is set up to be today's GameRager - a convenient lynch. Yes, he doesn't look particularly towny and yes this buddying up to Joe looks strange, even if it was a joke. But still he kind of feels like the least controversial target and therefore I wonder if he isn't Town after all and scum are just using his quirks against him.

Why? Discussing other people's reads is a central part of this game. So why does it amuse you that your reads are discussed?

I've explained this before and yet you keep coming back to this. The difference was in your tone. You made a serious accusation out of this well known Gambler's fallacy. At least that's how it read and I believe that was also what you intended. And THAT is what I reacted to - the fact that you acted as if there was any danger of anyone believing that 'case'. Your post didn't read like a joke. So my reaction to your non-joke post wasn't a joke either. I thought I had clarified that already.

But I agree with you on the claim/not-claim thing. I don't know why people see a refusal to claim as a claim.

@all: in my view there is a difference between:
"No, I don't want to claim."
and "I don't want to claim, I would be a certain NK target if I do."
The first one means, surprisingly enough, simply 'I don't want to claim'. The second one heavily implies a PR and is therefore a soft-claim.

Unvote RFG

I just re-ISO'd RedFireGaming and his Day 1 was stronger than I remembered. Not saying I'm not baffled by this sudden Town read on Joe based seemingly on voting and unvoting Lift after spending much of Day 1 thinking Joe was scummy. I don't understand what suddenly changed your mind. Enlighten me?

While there are posts I really question like Post 252 where there is an abnormally large number of Town points getting assigned including strangely assigning me Town points if Pooka flips scum, looking at the overall picture of Day 1, I find RFG fairly consistent in his reads and more responsive than I remembered. While there are a few posts that felt like bandwagoning on others ideas, I also found unique insight of his own.

Let's just say I got back to the thread a little cranky and a little pissed at myself for putting off the in-depth review of Joe, that I was planning to get to Saturday.

-------------

I gave Joe a bit of a pass Day 1 as I thought he was being a little too upfront, like Pooka, to actually be scum. I gave him some credit with his parlor tricks as seemingly useful to scum hunt. But when we get to Day 2 and these parlor tricks just continue and with judgments that are starting to look as if he has a goal to accomplish and is just making arguments designed to support his narrow vision, it makes me seriously question his motives.

While these tricks of his look like interesting scum-hunting tactics, looking at them closer, he could easily use them to pretend scum hunt as well. He loses nothing by fake voting at the end even if he knows GameRager is Town (if that was really his intent and not just a mistake). Randomly throwing names out and claiming to have an unspecified good case against people is also an easy way to pretend to be scum hunting. But at the end of the day, his Day 1 cases were just lies, and Town doesn't lie.

While I feel baffled by his playstyle and my unfamiliarity with his play made me standoffish, the real clincher to me is Post #155 where he both claims to have "made an argument against" Lift in Post #125 which if you read it he said he was voting Lift as a "stab in the dark". How is this a real argument against him? And worse, the fact he's pushing the seed that he cannot possibly be scum because no scum would be so obvious. The fact he is saying this himself, just says scum.

Vote JoeSapphire

If you think I'm wrong, convince me. If you think I'm overreacting to his playstyle and this is how he normally plays, let me know. If you played with him when he was scum, what can you tell me about it?

Seems I was typing a long response as yours got posted...

----------

You and others.

Simply put. Joe posed a question to me in Post 336. And I named Agent as someone I was looking at (because I had just looked him over). But I thought I made it clear I didn't see enough and it was based primarily on a lack of posts.

Enter today and I see people agreeing with the part they liked (few posts) but ignoring the "Not enough to call him scum though. The few posts he made seemed relevant."

My point to Joe was supposed to be there are plenty of cases that can be made, focusing on just you and Pooka was narrow-minded. The key point was Agentcarr for one.

But here we are with a case made against Agent following the half of my reasoning people want to use...
Starting with you in Post 350. Pooka in 376. Blotunga in 384. And even JoeSapphire intrigued in 388.

And I can't help but get the feeling that should that turn into a mislynch, I would get the heat for starting it, when that wasn't my intent at all. Instead, my point was no one else is leaning strongly enough Town to be taken off the table.

Day 1 is over. I stand by my view that you v Pooka felt more like Town v Town to me.. That doesn't mean I'm not going reevaluate based on new and hopefully better information.

@all and trent

Shoot. My laptop's power adapter seems to be dying (to be precise, the non-detachable area between the adapter box and the laptop). That means soon enough I won't have access to my laptop at all until I get that part of the adapter replaced. So if you see less activity from me, that is why.

I'll try to post from mobile whenever possible, but I don't need to tell you that won't be a great experience, so bear with me.

"Most likely" as in "out of the bunch" or as in "more likely than not"?

Fair, I'll take it.

All in all, I liked #392. Probably your first post that has substance. I hope it's not a one-off phenomenon. Yesterday is still weighing you down in my eyes. I hope what you say is true and Today things will be lot more different.

I know, right?

Sorry, I'm probably tired from the long day. Which were those good leads again?


That's something that also made me raise an eyebrow as well. One of the larger posts of the day that is almost entirely focused on Joe only to end up targeting RFG with a vote. I didn't see that twist coming.

The following unvote was also a bit weird but I know how memory can play tricks so I'm a bit more open-minded on that matter. Probably it's a good idea to do a similar ISO on RFG and see how one can be reminded of his stronger play.

OK. I also don't see it as an actual claim. Just as a way to hint that lynching may not be a good idea without the risk of getting counter-claimed or people not thinking the claim is worth taking the risk of giving said person the benefit of the doubt. It can serve both Town and scum which is why I don't like it. But that's just me, I guess.


RFG also did silly voting at day end (which I hated and from now on anyone who keeps playing silly games with votes when it matters the most will most likely get voted for it).

I've seen him as scum and felt him as such back then. Turned out I was on the money. I'm more confused now but wouldn't say that automatically means he's not scum. He's neutral at best and dangling.


Well that sucks. I hope you get it fixed soon as I know how much of a nuisance this can be. Especially if you're using it for more than having fun.

Interesting. Are you more worried about the mislynch part or about the heat you could get? In other words: are worried that it might be a mislynch? Or do you know that it would be a mislynch and are worried how that would fall back on you?

I really don't understand that reasoning. Why would levity be a Town-tell? Scum has a much bigger interest in just providing some chaff and entertainment to appear active without being actually useful. Outside of RVS I am usually much more relaxed as Scum. I don't have to focus so much, when I'm scum, because I already know who is on my team and who isn't. As Town, I have to put pressure on others, I have to focus and I want to provide input for other players. I want to be analysed, after all. That gives my fellow Townies something to work with. Writing non-sense doesn't help Town and Joe is experienced enough to know that. So I don't understand why Joe's back and forth convinced you, that Joe is Town.

Actually I read that statement by you as sarcasm. (There it is again, that internet problem with tone). Now that you defend it, it seems that you were serious. Which makes it look quite off in retrospect.

You know, you're right! I read that as honest mistake yesterday. But upon re-reading this sequence of unsuccessful votes and messed up unvote looks as if RFG has forgotten who he voted for. Which in turn could mean that he didn't really care who he voted for. Which in turn would be quite scummy!

Damn. After kind of defending RFG against agent and RW for the way they voted him, you make me consider if he isn't scum after all!

I still get some scummy vibes from agent, RW and Joe, but RFG joins that illustrious group. RW and agent at least replied to the questions I asked - so they don't look as scummy as I thought before those replies. But of course scum can reply too and can make up good reasons. RFG's main saving grace is, that I had the impression that he was a 'too convenient' target. Which still makes me hold off my vote. But Joe... is difficult to read. He manages very well to come off as your friendly fellow Townie, but doesn't provide much to actually work with. And he didn't reply to my question yet.

@Joe: please don't forget to respond to my question! Until you do:

unvote agent
vote Joe

Here's a mobile post.

@RFG I only said there was a chance that I would make it to Day 2, but not that I wanted to be alive on D2 to make use of a PR (at least in post 277).

@dedoporno about the good leads, I'm looking at stuff like Agent, the thing with the softclaims, Joe and his randomness, why ZFR, and just now, RW's vote of RFG - all of these being discussed and explored today.

And yes, not being able to use my laptop is crippling in all sorts of ways. It would be great if the GOG forums were more suited for mobile but I need to find fairy godparents to make that happen.

@RW I wouldn't put you as the main reason why Agent is suspected. But as for my post about him, the thing he said about myself being town despite the "very wrong" post of mine worried me, but I didn't know how...until Lift mentioned it. I didn't even think of your case on him at the time, just that his motives for thinking I am probably Town were questionable.

I'm going to respond to some other points later, either after I shower or in the morning.

I've been busy!

I thought RWarehall most likely to pick ZFR because: RW didn't play the last game so wouldn't know ZFR was killed night 1 last game (though that theory has since lost some credit as others have claimed to not have remembered/be bothered about this);
RW's play - he seems attracted to sense and method, both of which ZFR comes across as having (;p) so he might percieve ZFR a threat;
RW, as you say, was never implicated by ZFR. In the day ZFR was voting Lift, then abandoned lift's wagon while maintaining suspicion of him to join pooka's wagon, later losing suspicion of lift for vague reasons, eventually abandoning pooka's wagon to re-invigorate gamerager's terrible wagon. I'd expect the mafia to try and make something of his poor gamerager judgement and wishy-washy voting but they didn't, they killed him instead, which makes me think the mafia is someone who wasn't that engaged with ZFR in the Day - RW isn't the only one who fits this - Carr and blotunga I don't remember having much to do with ZFR, and perhaps RedFire and Dedo fitting, but I think they were more involved in the lift-pooka debate but this is from memory and maybe I'm just making it up; it's past my bedtime.


RW says 'Oh My Heavenly Bod Joe is Soooo Sucky' citing my 'bragging rights' pick at the game beginning, my claim that I made an argument against Lift, my fishing-for-reactions but not-learning-anything-from-the-reactions, and my end-of-day votes for gamerager as points of interest.

The Carr-&-ZFR-are-a-team claim: At the beginning of any mafia game I like to guess a scumteam so that at the end of the game if I'm right I can go 'ha! Joe's so great look at me' - it's a fun game that ZFR usually joins me on - though often rather later into the game which I DON'T THINK is in the true spirit of 'bragging rights' but heigh-ho.

The I-made-an-argument-about-lifthrasil post I think you misunderstood. This would be easier to explain if I could quote or link to posts but I'm on a nintendo at half-past-midnight so that ain't happening, sorry. But it was a response to lifthrasil saying something like "Joe is pushing for my lynch but he's not made any arguments against me" I say, "on the contrary my dear friend, I did make one argument against you, although now that I look back on it I can see how one might not pick up on what I meant - I then put a link to a post with several things in it and, again, fail to make it clear what I mean (is anyone getting a sense for my playstyle yet?)
So the argument I'm refering to is me comparing two of lifthrasil's posts - one from before I voted for him, one from after, the first saying "Joe never makes sense so it's not alignment indicative" the second saying "Joe's vote for me makes no sense he must be mafia" After inviting comparison I summarised my thoughts as 'huh.'
I wasn't pointing that out because I thought it was a great argument, but in response to Lift's claim that I wasn't interested in looking for scumtells. 'challenging RedFire' 'stab-in-the-dark' and 'he's done some things which might be scummy' were all reasons why I was voting for lift.

not-learning-from-reactions: have you learned anything from reactions to my prods? Just because no-one's reacted particularly firmly doesn't mean I should stop trying to get a reaction, or that I wouldn't be interested in a clearer reaction if there was one. Do you follow me? I'm not sure there's all that much to learn yet, is my point.

End-of-day-gamerager-vote: I don't see your problem with it.


A question for RWarehall - If I get lynched and turn up town what do you predict from the Day 3?


Dedo blames RedFire for his close-to-deadline misvote: Is it another time where you're joking and I can't tell that you're joking?


Apologies again for my absent playing - I'd like to have a look at what some other people have been up to but it's now 1am and tomorrow's a busier day still. I'll try and find some time but I'm not expecting that to be easy.

It's Tuesday vote count

Being Voted ------------------------------------------------Voted by
RedFireGaming---------------------------------------------Agent (Post 349)
JoeSapphire------------------------------------------------RW (Post 395), Lift (Post 400)

Closest to lynch is JoeSapphire at L-3

Day will end sometime Friday evening or Saturday morning Central US time

That's not subtlety. Also, I don't think that's strictly true. See below.

Who would have a motive for killing ZFR because he said "we'll get back to Lift later" besides Lift?

If you thought you hit the jackpot with him, that implies that you thought GR was scum. In fact, the implication is that you were pretty sure GR was scum. Yet it was just that "his strange play kept overshadowing everything else"?

You haven't played with GR other than last game? OK, my bad.

*sigh*

You may think you haven't implied power role or vanilla, but it reads differently to most others.

I agree with Lift that there is a difference. But this is a situation where your refusal to claim reads like a claim.

I'll try, but this post is already too long. One request at a time, please!

-----

It's actually really easy to tell where Lift was being serious.

Post 24 says "But then again since your vote probably was an RVS vote your reasoning doesn't have to make sense". That's pretty obvious, no matter how hard you squint.

Post 31 says "So you think that anyone in this game is actually going to believe that someone is scum because he has been scum so often[...]? Actually, your vote was the first one that didn't feel like RVS." Again, pretty obvious.

If he votes you, he wants to get you lynched. If he votes someone else, he wants to get you lynched.

Right...

Secret Hitler is not Mafia. This tactic is useless for Town (vote for Scum!) and pointless for Scum (NK everyone you want to die!).

-----

Also, for posterity, this made me chuckle. When the scumteam is no longer outnumbered, I'd suggest it's far too late to FoS.

Because I also collected some good points for Pooka.

It's not the discussion, it's the concern and suspicion generated by my saying that dedo is my strongest Town read.

More likely than not.

Fair enough.

Hehe.

-----

I'm exhausted. That's all for tonight, folks.

Thank you, I thought I maybe missed something really important.


Always am, love! Joe is beyond humanly recognizable greatness :*

No, I'm quite serious. The final voting happened after I went to bed and there was a couple of players sticking around who were responsible to seal the lynch or let it fizzle. To make things clearer, I don't have a problem with RFG forgetting that he voted for Lift instead of you although that is also somewhat noteworthy - how does one forget who their top pick was like that. Anyway, what annoyed me was the whole truevote-realvote-thistimeforrealzvote. First of all, all kinds of silly things like that acitvely annoy me but let's leave my personal preferences aside. In the rule Trent specifically said he wants real unvotes to real votes or he wouldn't count them. This is a bit more strict than what most hosts allow so it would have been better to not fool around and just assume that silly versions of the vote keyword might not be counted and it would be wiser to use what is listed in the rules just in case. What if Trent closed the day after the real unvote + truerealvote without accepting the latter?

All we have to do is follow the damn rules, CJ!


RFG and the others remembered that.