In a hypothesis sort of way. And ss D1 theories go, it has some merit. Pooka did write that he believes Lifts post to be serious (rather than playing along).

https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_63_supernatural/post40

Sorry, each time I get around to posting, I end up taking a few summary points and responding to them. I'm getting easily distracted this game.

Your feeling regarding me is not unfounded, but I believe it's not put in the right place this game. You can surely remember my strategy in our game as the scumteam: I had the very convenient scene wagon to stick to and drum up for. In that game, scene was being suspicious in the same way that GR is being right now. If anything, I am feeling more people are likely to believe in a GR lynch wagon than a Lift wagon even if it's not as informative. Why am I not jumping on the GR wagon? Why am I making it my fallback option? Why do I prefer being lynched over him being lynched? I ultimately want more information for town, not more time for scum, and you can see that in my consistency with Lift, which you yourself appreciate. You can also see it from the very beginning when I ended RVS; was it buying time for scum, or creating a scenario where scum have to try much harder than the usual to stay under the radar and are more likely to slip under the higher stakes?


I knew something about your vote on me was odd, but I wasn't sure why until you mentioned it again. Thanks.

But seriously. Do you think I'd commit to a lynch wagon based on ONE POST? Seriously, committing to a RW lynch based on a lonely Lift post is not even a leap of faith as scum, it's practically suicide. Put yourself in my shoes. I see RW saying what he said followed by Lift also saying what he said. Why as scum would I take this suicidal leap and end RVS early, making it much tougher for myself and my scumbuddy to keep our act up? I played enough GOG games to know that when Day 1 ends without going out of RVS, it often ends with a bad mislynch. I didn't need to do any of that if I wanted to stay alive as scum, because the game gives the advantage to scum on a silver platter if town remains in RVS.

So if I were scum, I literally threw the silver platter out of the Milky Way and doomed my scumbuddy to a loss. Fantastic work, scum!Pook.

Wait, you weren't "commiting" to RW lynch. It's not like you typed "RW is definitely scum; I'll be on his wagon from now on". You didn't even vote for him.

Commiting to an RW lynch wagon based on one post by Lift? No.
Throwing shade on RW based on one post by Lift? Yes, possible.

OK, let's go with shade. Lift tells RW that "probability doesn't work this way" (basically Gambler's Fallacy). I tell RW that he sounds like he's saying "I know how to take you down, dedo," basically...my accusation is RW throwing shade on dedo, a feeling I got solely from RW's post, with Lift's having absolutely no bearing on the feeling. I even had to reiterate this view a couple times when Lift was telling me about the Gambler's Fallacy much like he did with RW...

But it's also possible scum!Pooka saw an opportunity to get Town!RW wagon started on D1 then blame Town!Lift for the wagon on D2.

I'm not saying the above definitely happened, I'm just saying that while scum!Pooka jumping out of the blue on RW is an improbable scenario, but scum!Pooka doing so after he thought that Town!Lift was on RW first is not improbable.

Also, if you think RW was throwing shade on dedo, then you think RW was serious. I don't like that. It was RW's first post, clearly in RVS.

Okay. Talk to me not about whether it's probable or improbable, but about the probability. What is the probability of this scenario happening? 5%? 20%, 80%, 99%? What is the probability that a scummy me would do a leap of suicide like that?

You just noticed? I always thought he was serious with this attempt, clearly drawing from knowledge most of us don't have (I didn't play with dedo long enough to know if he rolled as scum more often than not). Besides, I don't like this "it's RVS" thing. The game has got to get out of RVS sooner or later, and if it ends prematurely on Day 1, it's because someone took something in RVS seriously.

Eh, for me it's just more town leaning, though yes it could also be scum looking to appear town....for now I consider them more town than scum, though.
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To be fair my wagon could also be analyzed for scum that might be on it....though of course I don't want to be lynched so I can keep playing.
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It's been a minute....o.0

Silliness aside, pooka's seemingly LAMIST replies when only at L-2(did I get that right? score/term use?) with around 4 hours to go leave me wondering if I should join the wagon to get a possible scum and avoid a no lynch....or should I stick with lift? Hmm.....

Ok then:

Unvote Lift

Vote Pooka

Let's see what shakes loose from this.................

I'm not going to quantify it because that's not the point. If you want a number here is one 24.752%. That's slightly over 2/9 of hitting random. And stop calling it "suicide". Suicide is what agent did last game.

Also you don't like "it's RVS". So why not take seriously Lift's vote for badmouthing Furries or mine for getting kitsunes excited.

Just a quarter. Which means three thirds likely I wouldn't have done a leap of faith based on a single Lift post. Not that I would have done that anyway: the percentage is actually really 0%.

And yes it is suicide. I am now sitting at L-1 I believe? Just one more vote and you'll figure out I am genuine. But if I were scum, what was the point? Ultimately I would have left a one man scumteam to carry the game on his shoulders, and I've seen last game to know how that is a horrible idea. How is that different from agent's doing last game, if the end result is still a lone mafioso the entire game?

RW's post is the first that says something grounded to the game without using flavor fluff and seemed to have a more serious tone than the rest of the votes.

*Bump*

If I think of other things to add, I'll make another post updating this, but right now here's what I've got.

Lynch Pooka, Pooka flips town: Dedo, Lift and ZFR get scum points, but with Pooka's aggressive playstyle this game it's harder to tell who was pushing his lynch.
Lynch Pooka, Pooka flips scum: RWarehall, Blotunga, Lift, Joe, and ZFR get major town points.
Lynch Lift, Lift flips town: Pooka was probably the one pushing Lift the hardest, some scum points for Joe and ZFR.
Lynch Lift, Lift flips scum: ZFR, Joe and Pooka get major town points.

Looks like Pooka's going to be the lynch, but Lift is currently my top pick. If no one hammers by tonight I will change my vote to avoid a no-lynch, but from what I've seen so far I don't think Pooka is scum. He's put himself at odds with far too many people for me to believe that.
Vote Lift

Thanks GR

Now GameRager, GameRager...you know you have been accused of just joining on the longest wagon, right? You did what you were criticized of not giving much reasoning or doing much in the game, but only the minimum effort. You describe my posts at L-2 as "seemingly LAMIST".

Answer me here: how are my posts "seemingly" LAMIST? What is your angle here?

bump

So you're going for the 2nd biggest(iirc) wagon so close to deadline? Really?

Also remember you have like 3+ hours to make up/change your mind.
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You have been trying(as far as I can tell) to defend your self in the last few posts you made to others...making lengthy posts while doing so/talking in general....while being L-2 and around 4 or so hours from deadline.

To me that seems a bit lamist/odd, and as your wagon is growing and I have not much else to go on I choose you Pooka-chu!