Given my track record with not getting the unofficial ones 100% correct, I believe everyone (including me) appreciates the confirmation. ;)

Nice try.

While your conclusions here are correct when based on the assumptions you state here, even YOU don't believe the assumptions you list here (you've got Adalia down as scum). So your conclusions here are worthless.

*yawn* I was away for a weekend. After I left work on Friday, I didn't post again until Monday. You can check the dates. Flub's lynch was irrelevant to my absence, and even you admit that I defended my vote on Flub when I was present.

It is relevant for town to know, since it helps inform town of whether the new scum can be in on a game plan created by the other scum even if the new scum can't help create that game plan. It was relevant to me, specifically, because the answer to a previous question in the thread left doubt on my assumption about how this would work. My post #530 (answering Dedo's question about HSL having already covered this) covers this already AND states the difference between my question and HSL's question.

If you remind me post game, I'll tell you yet another reason that I asked.

*snerk* That quote was in support of my argument that Adalia was arguing for something more than simple indiscriminate slaughter. He was arguing for indiscriminate slaughter for a purpose, and one of the main purposes behind vanilla townies is to do the dying for their team (the other being to help find and lynch scum). A vanilla townie biting it is a better scenario than a town PR (like a mason) biting it.

Hopefully you'll see the irony later.

I was reading HSL as town, so of course I was less inclined to lynch him; you've been strongly advocating for this concept all game. The difference between HSL and Flub (or Trent) was that I didn't see HSL claiming vanilla, so I couldn't deny the possibility that he was a mason.

You mean townies can't look at the flip and quickly figure out the possible scenarios of what happened? Should I have avoided posting until someone else posted?

I resumed with my list of lynch candidates from the previous day. I don't have an investigative PR, so why shouldn't I?

This is ridiculous even as a smear.

It was something of great interest to me because it might tell us something about voting patterns from Day 2. If Hunter tried to recruit someone on N1, then his scum partner might not know whether the recruitment was successful and they had no way of prearranging a signal to confirm it.

*snort* I was basically busy for the weekend again. Your question came after I'd left, and rather than respond post-by-post, possibly creating useless clutter in the thread by talking about old news, I decided to catch up on the thread first. You dropped the mason claim while I was away, so I sidelined all my notes while I tried to sort that mess out.

That is SO WEIRD how I more interested in talking about the biggest news of the past few days. Just amazing, really. Like wow, why wouldn't I rather talk about more trivial things? :P

I've seen active pinballs that were more stationary than your vote.

Agreed; I've deliberately left this option open to town. There are enough total votes from any of the three main groups of players (mason, vanilla town, scum) that any two of them can kill me before I get into that in detail. None of them can do it by themselves.

It was less than 24hrs, but no way to prove it now with GOG's timestamps, something you are, or course, aware of.
This is also not your first game here, so you know how we struggle with the D1 Lynch, and that even 24hrs is not a safe amount of time for us to reach a consensus. So yeah, after what I saw from you Yesterday, you coming in, and effectively starting a new wagon, with no explanation, and never returning to the thread, is telling.


There's quite the distance between "I don't see any two other players being his mason partners" and "no, there's no way he's a mason". It is, however, a nice PoE attempt to figure out who they are.


And this is exactly what I think your goal was from the beginning with that "no, there's no way he's a mason", and I don't mean just to see if mchack's claim is true.


So your argument basically is "he's scum because I concluded he's scum". Gotcha.


I always find it funny when people start to imply or claim to scum-read me as soon as they become aware that I'm scum-reading them first; I guess it is a way to attempt to discredit what I say.
Which makes this even funnier, after how things progressed. Or a(nother) subtle fishing attempt.


[emphasis added]

I don't know if adaliabooks is town or scum Today, but if he is scum, he's not w/w with you, and I don't mean that as you being town; I've been scum-reading you since Yesterday, and I can go into why.

Regarding the reasoning you provide here, and the part I highlighted, I'd like to refer everyone to your reply-post #805 to adaliabooks from earlier Today, which was before mchack claimed Mason (post #823), something you're basing your reasoning on, and I quote [emphasis added]: Is this how not wanting to risk lynching a Mason looks like? At the time, mchack hadn't claimed yet, and even after he did, you insisted that he's scum false-claiming Mason, and only went back on mchack because you couldn't get enough support (said so yourself). You certainly didn't seem worried, and try now to use mchack claim to prove that adaliabooks is scum. But not until you tried your best to get at least hints about one or both of the hidden Masons, if not out them; it's not the first time you've done it, though I'll give you that you've made a somewhat decent effort to be subtle about it.


Impressive improvement of your memory.



Are you sure?



*looks at Krypsyn's latest vote count, spots Bookwyrm627's missing unvote of trentonlf (post #913)*

I'm appreciative of both vote counts, helps me cross-check with the one I keep myself.

Vote Bookwyrm

My meaning will become clear as part of my talk on the masons. I can't explain it without said talk.

If Mchack is a mason, then they're already out.

If Mchack is not a mason, then those who are supposedly aligned with him can deny being a mason with him (even if they are a mason with someone else), and as far as I'm concerned that would be proof that he's scum.

If his supposed allies neither confirm nor deny, then people can decide whether they think Mchack is lying and act accordingly. My plan goes into what (I think) we should do as a group to hit scum. I believe that my plan also allows us to talk much more openly about who is and is not aligned with whom, and the accusations and arguments can proceed as per a more normal game.

And if (generic) you disagree with any point of my logic, then you can point out where I'm wrong or you can just ignore it.

If Mchack is telling the truth, then I'm pretty certain I've got it right. It uses Mchack's own statements and then some simple POE that I'm very confident about.

After looking at the results of my list, I can see how several things fit together, and that helps inform who I think is probably which kind of scum.

If the newly recruited scum cannot read the scum thread until they've started the night as scum, then there is no way to prearrange a signal for the new convert to use in order to confirm the conversion was successful. The old scum could make such a signal, but the new scum wouldn't see it until the point was moot.

This is not to say that the new scum and old scum can't shake hands in the thread, just that they can't use some signal (ex. talking about fruit) to do so.

If all old scum are told whether the conversion was successful, then the question is moot (they all know the answer), but that information is not public.

That's (effectively?) four votes. Two more will kill a townie and save me some writing.

As an appeal to save said townie, please consider whether scum!me would bother pointing this out in the first place (thereby risking a rather immediate lynch) to warn his buddy(-ies); regardless of Mchack's constant harping on it, I wasn't near the top of the lynch order for Day 2. Also consider whether scum me, wanting to warn his buddies, would clearly broadcast what I'm planning to do and then continue to wait for town to make the lynch decision (instead of, you know, warning my buddies). And if you're going to claim that I'm the only mutant, then ask yourself what I hope to gain from doing this (thereby risking losing the game entirely) instead of just quietly going about my business at night with this information in hand.

As I said when the day started I believe our best chance of hitting scum today is either dedo or HSL. At this point I also would have no issue lynching Leonard or bookwyrm as both have made statements they make my eyebrows raise as to why someone with town’s interests at heart would say that making me believe they don’t have town’s interest at heart. Of the four I would still rather go with HSL or dedo, but I’m not sure that will happen today.

Vote bookwyrm

Looks like everyone but Gogtrial has been through here, I haven't incurred 6 votes yet, and I've given the time I said I would give.

Hunter was not a mason.

Assume Mchack is a mason.

Mchack has stated that Leonard is not his partner.

Mchack has stated that Adalia, HSL, and I are all not his partners.

Mchack has basically confirmed Krypsyn is not a mason.
Additionally, on Day 1 Krypsyn placed the vote that put Mchack at L-2, and left him at L-1 for awhile. Krypsyn was already out of his "follow the biggest wagon" voting phase, and he placed that vote knowing what it would do to the wagon.

ZFR put Mchack at L-1, at least partially in response to my call for people to vote (Post 601). I don't think I need to clarify why a mason would not do this to a fellow mason.

Once Dedo placed his D1 vote on Mchack, that vote was never moved. While I could see an early vote as distancing, Mchack went to L-1 and the vote stayed. I don't see mason Dedo doing this. Dedo could have come up with something, anything, to pull that vote off; if nothing else, he could have pulled it "so we don't accidently lynch", but he did not. Dedo was there when ZFR made the L-1 vote; he actually commented on ZFR's vote (Post 607). Dedo confirmed his continued willingness to lynch Mchack in Post 666.

So that leaves Flub, Trent, and Sage. Sage was pretty close to a null on Day 1 due to her extend absences. I'm personally leaning toward Flub and Trent being the other two masons, but I could see Sage being it instead of Trent. The biggest oddity I have about Trent being a mason is that it leads me to a logic loop that feels similar to the statement "This statement is a lie"; there are a few things he said near the end of Day 1 that make me stumble at the idea. I was watching for clues to indicate whether Gogtrial is the mason, but I didn't see any.

Just Flub declaring he isn't a mason with Mchack would be enough for me to vote Mchack for being scum; if any two of those three claim they aren't mason with Mchack, then I'll happily take an Mchack lynch (and I'd be surprised if the rest of you don't).

Who are the two people who made plays that others (me included) labeled as not coming from a mason? Flub and Trent. Perfect bait for a failed conversion, and Day chat makes for excellent planning and coordination. HSL: This goes back to my comment in Post 913; I genuinely wouldn't have expected such a play from either of them in those circumstances, as I said in Day 1. Flub just rode it out, which is no surprise from Flub, while Trent made some misdirecting statements ("Oh, I'm a mason now?").

I think Hunter was original scum. He wasn't paired with any of the main wagons, and I suspect he wasn't paired with any of the players who think in a more wily fashion (I don't mean that as an insult, simply that some of us think in more loops than others). I'm guessing the Mutants talked about things, and decided that the claims from Flub or Trent were believable enough (and believed enough) to try and recruit one of those two players; WIFOM can take care of keeping the recruit alive, especially considering there is one player (Mchack) strongly advocating against lynching either of them, and the fact that with two of people at such obvious risk we can't hit both so even a coin flip between them (if it came to that) would still keep the new recruit alive.

I'm guessing that the Cyborgs took a look at the two obvious recruit choices and thought "Nah, too obvious. Lets go elsewhere". Unbeknowst to them, they are now dodging most of the masons, and if they look outside the main wagons then they are also dodging the other mason. The recruitment odds just don't get much better on N1 than only 2 bombs in 7 slots. That means the cyborgs include someone from ZFR, Leonard, Dedo, Krypsyn, and me.

IF Mchack is lying:
I'm pretty sure he's on the Cyborg team. If he (as the most active and most exposed to lynch) claims to be a mason, then that may draw out the real masons. As you can see, if Adalia and Leonard aren't cyborgs, then the options for who IS a mason have already been narrowed down, and they're probably going to be narrowed much further before the Day is done. It only risks one (replaceable!) member of the Cyborg team to drastically reduce the possibility of trying to convert a bomb, and it might even get a mason lynched if things go well. This also means Mchack is probably an original scum, since I don't think his play has changed overly much; he is probably the one to use his conversion shot, though. Lastly, I don't really see a solo Mchack making this play and risking a team wipe from a counter claim.

IMHBAO, having one man from the 3 man squad claim mason is a decent play. They have a spare, they only risk one person (and an uncountered claim makes that player VERY hard to lynch), and that person can use their conversion shot before claiming. There are lots and lots of upsides without much downside.


Time for my conclusions.
-I'm going to act as though Mchack is telling the truth, and that two conversions were attempted on N1.
-If you believe Mchack is what he claims to be, then don't lynch Mchack, Flub, Trent, or Gogtrial and you'll be sure not to hit a mason. One of those can't be a mason, but we can sort that out later (probably). That leaves HSL, Adalia, ZFR, Leonard, Dedo, Krypsyn, and I (7 players).
-I'm guessing there are 3 masons, 4 vanilla town, 3 cyborgs, and 1 mutant in the game. Alternatively, there might be 2 cyborgs and 2 mutants (or even 2 cyborgs and 1 mutant), but that means the cyborgs threw a NK at Hunter.
-As far as the remaining Mutant is concerned, there are likely 3 bombs in those 7 non-mason slots for recruiting, and moving one player from the mason category over to the non-mason category results in at least 3 bombs in 8 players. Since a number of those non-masons are already decent lynch prospects, the mutant is in a really tight spot as far as recruiting is concerned. They also can't afford to let the Cyborgs go unchallenged for too long, or the cyborgs will be able to easily finish the mutant team. The mutant will know one player is definitely not vanilla; this may help them NK if Hunter happened to target a Cyborg, or it might be a waste if Hunter targeted a mason. All of this taken together means I'm not really concerned about the mutant scum right now; they can be dealt with later if necessary.
-The cyborgs would know whether they killed Hunter, and they can take a very good guess on whether Mchack is telling the truth.

-I know I'm town, so I'm not voting for me.
-Adalia and HSL aren't mutants, or they would have died for the failed conversion instead of Hunter.
-HSL feels like town to me. I'm not sure about Adalia, but I'm willing to look elsewhere for the moment.
-ZFR's continued appeals toward the experience of others and his focus on wanting to hunt for the last Mutant raise my hackles. I think he's a cyborg.
-Leonard's posting has felt off suspicious throughout the game. He could be a mutant or a cyborg; I could see a team of Leonard + Hunter deciding to go for the conversion on Flub or Trent.
-Dedo's posting has also left me uneasy. There isn't anything I can specifically point at, though.
-In his first game back, poor Krypsyn might well have rolled scum yet again(!), and to add insult to injury, it would be in a cult game. From his perspective, that is probably a yuck and a double yuck. I could easily see scum!Krypsyn making the connection about playing Follow The Masons on D1. This could go either way, and he's also a solid recruitment choice.

-There isn't enough evidence for or against Gogtrial for me to really sort her anywhere.

So there I am. My lynch preferences are on ZFR, Dedo, or Leonard, with a preference against HSL.

At the moment mchack's claim is the only thing I think is something I can trust. I think. I don't like the episode with Leonard and it's resolution left me confused. The comes Bookwyrm who just announces that he is going to name all masons because that's going to help us. What is there to like?


So even in your "I've got it all figured" scenario there is some uncertainty. And don't you think spilling info on three people to confirm/condemn one is a bit too much? I said I believe 1 to 1 is OK since it should provide enough context to figure out who is telling the truth and who isn't, but only if someone was going to come out and challenge mchack's claim on their own. Everything more than this will likely destroy whatever mystery there is left and from then on it's a race on who will be able to pick the opponents faster. Town can remove one scum at most and that will never change - if everything gets revealed with certainty we are going to lose in the long run for sure (it might not be even that long depending on how things go).

Sure I can accept it, even though I know you're 1/3 wrong and I also believe ZFR was Town yesterday. Leonard, I agree, is suspect.


If mchack is lying and the real masons who are Wyrm and 2 others were letting him play his hand, but Wyrm suddenly decided that it has been going on for too long and he wants to shut it down by counter-claiming (that's what I was referring to when I wrote non-mchack buddies - that Wyrm knows for a fact mchack is lying) I don't see how comparing notes on who is a mason is anything but damaging.


I think they were three at the time of the quoted post and are currently four.


He convinced you that easy?

I don't have much time (on a family festivity right now) so I'll keep it short and won't answer everything in detail...

I find it not funny that you just "forget" to unvote at this stage... (you are still voting leonard!)

-----

I've made it clear from the start who I'm willing to vote for (adalia, you and hsl) leonard has been the only exception to that, which I found unfortunate myself but he rather forced it on himself
----

Then why out the so clear masons when you are town yourself? Maybe some scum can read even less than you supposedly do, and this would only help them get their last conversion shots right tonight.

What I propose is this. Let's lynch bookwyrm and we can know by the flip whether what he said up until now is coming from scum or from town. if town, you can decide to lynch me tomorrow or have the other two masons back me up (which they will because likely there's no more conversion shots left then.) or I'll be nk anyway (hopefully by both teams which would make one of their shots useless) and then you'll see I am speaking true by my flip.

if he flips scum, then we know we are on the right track and get some more info by hopefully scum flips from getting their conversion shots wrong (because we haven't explicitly talked about who is mason but me) or they nk me which also helps town by confirming that I really am mason and you can go back through my posts and judge what I said from that perspective.

So really I don't see any reason why we should let bookwyrm continue with his plan and I do hope we finally get to lynch scum today. (I myself think the chances are very very good now, no town would want to discuss masons openly just before the lynch - last who tried was hunter)

Leonard. Can you please stay on topic. You can continue your discussion with hsl tomorrow. Now it's time to lynch scum.

flubbucket, MOAR VOTING, please!

---
refresh before post...

damnit. too late. Anyway I won't confirm or deny anything (no need to help scum tonight. We'll talk about it tomorrow). But after your flip we can go back to this post to sort it out with the full information available (after all masons claiming tomorrow if the other two agree)

I still say this was not a town thing to do D2 with two conversion shots left and two masons still in hiding and thereby you are scum and have to be lynched today.

I'm town. My appeal towards experience of others (most of them were on D1) were genuine. And my hunt for Mutant was only because I thought it's easier. I did write that it's less rewarding, but easier, and I did ask which it's better to go for first.

I know it's just my word for it.

At this moment I believe mchack (if only because 3 hackers would have done something about it by now, plus it is consistent with his voting D1 and D2). I also had trent as another hacker (because of: his original claim was specifically that he was not scum and not that he was townie; mchack's mention of theatrics between masons; trent refused to lynch mchack on D1, and his "I'm not a mason later"). When trent voted for Leonard, I was even more convinced he's a hacker too and so followed suit.

Unless real hackers or someone else convinces me mchack is lying (I'm now almost sure he isn't), I'll assume he's hacker and will be following a him. Though personally now, I find adalia suspicious, especially after Leonard removed his vote from him.

TO be honest after your post, I'm less suspicious of you; it gave you lots of townie points in my opinion. But I did say too that those with townie points I find suspicious. Would you have made this post if you were a cyborg? I think you might have. Maybe even its intention was to give pointers to your cyborg friends before your lynch. But if you're townie, then I apologize.

My lynch preferences are the original mchack accusees + Leonard.

Do you still think Wyrm is scum after he put his cards on the table?

I see mchack made his post while I was typing.

Same question from me. Do you still think Wyrm is scum?