Sorry, only now I saw this message. I meant that if we assume (1) is what happened it means that one scum team was sure that Hunter was a vanilla while another was sure that Hunter was hacker/scum.
Which I find unlikely.

But I believe you figured it out from my later post already.

This may be true in a normal mafia game. You know who all the townies are and you target the quietest one so you don't throw suspicions on you.
But in this setup it is different. Now I know this is my first game, and I would love to hear some feedback on this from someone who's more experienced, but I think in this setup, such carefullness is not needed as much. Mafia would rather NK someone about whom they have reasonable suspicion that rival scum/hacker than killing a quiet vanilla townie, which would also deprive them of a potential convert.

Now I admit I was completely with all the drama towards the end, but if anyone taking part in it were scum (and one has to assume that at least one, possibly more, were), they would have been able to read more information from it, and NK one someone who they believe is scum or hacker.

No, I really think no scum team went for NK. And we should act as if there is a convert among us.

This is the pendant in me speaking, but technically your point (3) should actually be 2(d), since it falls under the broad heading that Hunter was scum.

You can further break it down into 2d(i) He failed a conversion while the other team did nothing, and 2d(ii) he was NKed while his team did nothing.

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OK, I have some more insight and points that I had from Day 1 but didn't want to share because they touch upon possible scum strategies and who is/isn't mason. But with everyone shouting "stop discussing scum strategies (why? Note to self: check who was shouting 'stop giving scum strategies!' loudest) and "stop discussing masons" (OK, in this case I can there being a reasonable reason for that), I kept quiet.

I want to see how things pan out first.

I’m not my usual self?!?! *Looks in mirror, screams in terror* Who are you in that mirror! Give me back my usual self!!!! Hmm, maybe you mean I’m having fun and I usually don’t? Did bookwyrm talk to you last night?

The very fact that you have to ask why I might not having been willing to vote a particular player in this set up suggests you are not paying any attention or are completely blinded by your read on me.

But then I'm fairly sure you know and you're just playing stupid.

It didn't. Yesterday began with a random wagon on me (admittedly one of the voters was Krypsyn so I'm not sure that counts) by players who did little to nothing to explain their votes. One of whom (Leonard) I'm fairly sure is your buddy, or at least he was my top suspect for that spot for most of the day, the fact he was completely unwilling to vote you and attempted to start a new wagon HSL when it looked possible you would be lynched along with his general behaviour really sealed the deal for me.

Unvote trentonlf (I can't actually decide which of you or flub are more likely to have been converted, so let's follow mchack's lead and vote for the original scum instead)
Vote Leonard03

Let's see if his wagon might be any more palatable for people than yours was yesterday.

I'm not sure how much to read into it. As an example: Mchack wouldn't lynch himself. Hunter was already on the wagon. Sage was MIA for an extended period. That only leaves 1 other scum, who would have to be on the other scum team AND who wasn't already on the wagon. This makes some assumptions for the sake of the point, but I think it is a decent illustration.

Similar holds true for HSL's lynch, Flub's lynch, and Adalia's lynch. All were pretty close, though not all were L-1.

I am intensely curious about what brings you to these conclusions.

I'm going to go with the obvious answer: I didn't think HSL was scum on D1, and he wasn't broadcasting whether or not he was a mason.

We were close enough for long enough with your lynch (and Flub's), both of which I found preferable to HSL.

I know your scum list (Adalia, HSL, Me, Dedo) was factually 25% wrong, and I'm fairly sure it was at least 50% wrong and probably at least 75% wrong.

Why should I be confident about the truth of your suggestion that lynching original scum is going to be easier than lynching a convert? Who DO you think got converted?

I agree it's unlikely that hunter was not one of the Original Scum, but I'm also pretty sure that also shows that of those that attempted conversion were the ones in each team that were least suspected, as to not make lynching the suspecting townie improbable in case the conversion fails.
Which if true means lynching the most suspected scum from last day is even more rewarding as if we lynch correctly we not only kill scum but also the last remaining conversion shot of that team dies.

this is the one part where bookwyrm made a lot of town points (and some krypsyn points, too) with me when he threatened everyone to not talk masons.
There is nothing to be gained for town to speculate about who is/isn't mason and only scum can profit from that.
Please do not talk about who you think is or isn't mason. just don't.

I'm sorry... that makes no sense.

Surely the scum with the most heat should risk the conversion? That way if they die their partner is still nicely hidden away with little suspicion on him.

Why would the person at most risk of being killed not take their conversion shot, I really don't see the logic there.

In general, those who make most town points are the ones I'd be suspecting most.

I'm not saying Bookwyrm is or isn't scum, but if he were, he's intelligent enough to know that shouting "stop discussing masons!", considering how discussing masons is considered bad, would give him townie points.

I agree that scum would generally have a preference on killing scum/mason over killing a vanilla townie, but my point was that the scum team might not have been sure enough about who was who to take a chance on converting someone. Therefore they decide to use the NK, but they still aren't sure who is who so they take a guess (or use other criteria to choose).

That said, I do see your point.

I agree.

Pedantically, that is incorrect. He could also have been town in this instance: one scum team shoots him while the other does nothing. The case (one team did nothing) was absurd enough to be immediately discarded, and thus warrant its own bullet point. I only mentioned it to forestall it being suggested later; I very nearly didn't bother.

I'm inclined to agree, which leads to an interesting point. If we assume Hunter was OS, then his partner wasn't one of the primary wagons from D1.

On a separate note, I'm willing to go with a Leonard lynch.

Winner winner chicken dinner!

you don't?
so if you or hsl would have greeted us dead this morning flipping scum, then you don't think that would have hampered hsls or your aim to lynching me in the least? think again.

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uh, nope all of scum were on my wagon (but lucky me there weren't 7 scum yesterday) hunter only left for half an hour to vote hsl but changed back as soon as you said, this might end in no-lynch. Also he was very quick to follow your lead to lynch sage just before nightfall.
much better illustration, I think.

not conclusions, but speculations. As you (and zfr) have already laid out all possibilities that might have happened, I went to make my point about one of them in answer to adalias trying to lynch trent or flubs (again), obviosly in the thought that one scum team recruited correctly (why else search for converts?) and which implies the other didn't (unless they NKed hunter of course. wouldn't see the sense in that though. he wasn't exactly scumhunting) hence in that team that recruited unsuccessful (hunters) there would be only one scum left, which still has his conversion shot and does not know the player the other team converted. So leaving him uncovered for now, would have the bonus that he's a bomb left for hunters team if they try and recruit the same player (the safe choice as adalia put it yesterday)
But yes all speculation thinking further the same speculation from which adalia votes trent or flubs ( I don't see you asking him about it though.)

flubs was nowhere near getting lynched back then (last 24h to nightfall) it was me, adalia or hsl. two of which you did not want to lynch. it's all that townie behaviour from them that made you rather go no-lynch?

don't know who got converted (if any), might be anyone, said so before. They (anyone) hardly talked yet anyway.

What about your scumlist. me and? if only me I can tell you it's 100% wrong. Also there's at least two missing you know. And it's easy to laugh at others lists when making none yourself. You didn't talk to hunter as if you thought him scum. I at least offered him a place on my list (your spot in fact)

The question is "if they're so close to being lynched anyway (and thus losing their conversion shot), then why would they risk the player who isn't at risk of dying and losing their conversion shot?" Such behavior also puts the team at sudden risk of loss if the conversion backfires.

Mchack, they don't need you specifically dead to win, unless you're scum, so not being able to lynch you isn't a huge deal in the long run. NKs are available to scum for the unlynchable that need to be killed.

All this taken together means that if Adalia or HSL are scum, then they are very likely part of a 3-man cyborg team now.

Your illustration doesn't do anything to clarify my point, so it is a terrible illustration in that regard. :P

The idea that my scum buddy would so promptly follow me with voting is kind of amusing, though I guess the HSL split on voting would have been an okay piece of distancing? That assumes that I wanted to preserve HSL even though he isn't on my team, though, when I could have simply said "Sorry HSL, we need to lynch".

Why do you think all scum were on your wagon? What makes you think that ZFR, Sage, Flub, Leonard, and Trent were all town?

I...think I follow all that. If we don't go looking for the convert, then (assuming the convert is a cyborg) the remaining mutant might target the convert and therefore die.

Therefore, we should leave Trent and Flub alone under the assumption that one of them was likely converted, so the mutant might try to convert one, choose wrong, and die?

Did I get that right?

We had 5 or so people, at least, who were still willing to lynch Flub near the end.

I have my reasons.

I wasn't laughing at you, I was pointing out that, assuming you are town, I'm somewhat less than confident in your reads.

I didn't talk to/about Hunter as scum because I didn't have a read on him. Like several other players, he was just kind of there.

He wouldn't flip scum then.

Herp derp, ya'll are right. I stand by my original reason for separating it out though: the idea of one scum team doing nothing on N1 is ridiculous enough that I categorically regret it.

I think town!you would be overestimating the value of your lynch here.

Dang dang dang.
No-lynch is bad. Stupid of me to forget how close we were to deadline. European evening != Canadian evening.


Cause you made it through alive sitting at L-1?

That latter 2 are unlikely enough to be discarded, however. Even if a scum team wasn't willing to risk a conversion attempt, there's no reason for them not to NK someone. Unless they were as indecisive as us and ran out of time, lol.

Mkay.

A good question, assuming scum think along this line, we have a couple different conclusions. Either Hunter did not die from a failed conversion attempt, or his partner in crime went as unnoticed as he did the first day. There is, of course, still the possibility that he was converted and then NK'd, but that seems... unlikely.

Actually, if you look at adalia and Bookwyrm day 1, they expressed suspicion before.

And what if no lynch happens?

TBH, this post is not helping your case.

Why the random hop to Sage? That pretty much ensured there would be no chance of a lynch, even if someone did make it online.

Also, just as a reference (and blatantly stolen from Krypsyn's Unofficial vote counts, so if something's missing, blame him). On Day 1 Hunter voted for: flubbucket, Bookwyrm (when Bookwyrm asked for the votes), trentonlf, adaliabooks (RVS), mchack, and HypersomniacLive.

Sorry, I'm not sure how that follows.

That's an... interesting strategy.