I see a few people who have expressed their dislike in what we're currently doing and would like something else to be happening instead (the desired alternative is mostly coming down to scumhunting and finding a better, proper lynch). Sage, Trent and Leonard, if you want things to start happening differently I suggest to do something about rather than just talking about it. If you don't want waters muddied and achieve a proper lynch start suggesting who that lynch should be.

Currently mchack is the strongest negative vibe. I won't mind taking a chance with the three players I mentioned above. Most of the others are meh. I have no interest in voting adalia or ZFR (even though I'd like him contributing more). I don't think mchack and HSL are scum together because I doubt HSL would come out for his buddy in the way he did on D1 and if he was a rival scum (or just scum going after pressured mchack) I don't see why he wouldn't have taken the chance to help the wagon (or at at least not tamper with it too much).

As for flub I prefer to go with my scummy choice but if that isn't happening and someone else doesn't get found out I believe he has to be the fallback.

To put my money where my mouth is

vote mchack

I'm open to suggestion, though.

Define scumhunting

well, that's the question really.
If you are town trying to find scum by your action then it might be in a sense, but it's also scummy because we'll likely lynch you for it and what we're likely to learn by analysing a wagon were everyone is just: well he asked for it., I can't fathom and you're knowingly denying us a lynch that actually hits scum.
If you are scum, it still might be scumhunting for a different team, but ... seriously? can't even fathom what your scumbuddy would be thinking right now...

So, who do you think is acting most scummy (besides yourself) today? (it would be a nice answer to go back to after your flip, even if you really want to be lynched today)

I'll be honest I voted flub because of (a)"he's acting suspicious" and (b) "better lynch someone than no-lynch. So might as well be flub because he's acting suspicious" plus I was convinced a bit by adalia's reasoning that better lynched vanilla townie than having him converted.

But after reading the latest posts I'm not too sure now.

Unvote flub
Vote adalia

Question to the more experienced players here:
_Is flub intelligent enough to pull off this being his plan all along. Act suicidal to claim you're a vanilla townie while in reality you're scum that will avoid getting lynched this way?
_Is flub intelligent enough to pull off this being his plan: act suicidal to claim you're a vanilla townie while in reality you're hacker so that scum try and convert you?

Fuck.

I just typed a massive post on my phone explaining all the stuff I didn't want to go into and then dragged down and refreshed and lost it.

Fuck.

I'll maybe find the energy to re do it later (on my laptop) but possibly not as I'm working today.

I'm sure we'll wait for you before any lynch happens.
Also don't you dare blaming me for having to go into stuff you don't want to explain. If don't wanna explain it then don't!
if you don't wanna look like you're asking for recruitment by mentioning super secret knowledge, then don't mention it.

your actions are your own doing, no-one is making you do any of it.

No.

No.

I read my post after typing and did find that my wording was unfortunate. Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that you're anything less than intelligent.

you don't get to decide that, you're not the dungeon master here.

oh, I think you should be more specific than that. I don't wanna hear who you think is town (to protect them) but I do want to hear who you think is scum, because

a) it will be something to go back to after we have a flip from you (or them)
b) it will be something to go back to if you should survive this day and we are suspecting you of being converted

@all I think the same applies to anyone else, too really. I feel this will help town more than scum because of the chance for conversion and it might be giving us more info to work with whatever flips we'll see in the future
(+ it helps us decide on a lynch)

No, I really don't want to explain it. But I will because at this point it is probably the townie thing to do so that we do the right thing today.
I may not get time to fill in all the blanks until later but here is the gist of it.

Town is almost guaranteed a win if we can get the three masons through till tomorrow. Particularly if three vanilla townies are dead. I've outlined the numbers on that already.

So our goal today is not to lynch a mason or force one to claim.
So what will scum do if they reach L-1?
Claim mason.
And what will we do?
Stop the lynch.

So unless someone does something absolutely ridiculously scummy today that makes us certain they could not possibly be a mason we will never lynch scum today.
We will only ever lynch vanilla town.

Hence we should do so as quickly as possible so scum don't get any more clues or ideas then they already have who might be a mason to shoot in the night.

Though we may well be passed that point anyway.
And particularly now that I have spelled it out scum know exactly what to do today and everyday until it makes sense for the masons to claim (which I'm hoping will be tomorrow).

ZFR almost had it right when he suggested no lynch, but the better result for town tomorrow is to have less vanillas floating about muddying the water.

So please vote flub. He's a smart cookie and he knows what he is doing.

Liar.

I haz the dumb.

it'd be 3 masons, 4 scum, 2 vanilla then. (3 dead vanilla) or 3 mason 5 scum 3 vanilla. (1 convert 1 nk) or 3 mason 6 scum 2 vanilla. (2 convert) or 3 mason 3 scum 3 vanilla (1 nk 1 failed nk) or 3 mason 2 scum 4 vanilla (2 failed nk)
each case needing 5 to vote and even if we lynch scum correctly D2 because the masons claimed then the numbers go 1 mason, 3 scum , 2 vanilla on D3 or 1 mason 4 scum 3 vanilla or 1 mason 5 scum 2 vanilla etc, (the mason being basically a vanilla, too)
how is that a guaranteed win? I would hope the masons don't claim ever (or as late as possible) and we try and lynch correctly from the start. scumhunting is key.

So? in the night he'll likely be nk from the competing scum team. win for us if he falseclaims mason.
and going L-1 for a real mason is way harder.

now that is the third strike: best lynch vanilla townies second best no-lynch?
that is your plan?
and when are we ever going to kill scum?

vote adaliabooks

Tomorrow.
Worst case tomorrow is two masons are killed through the night.
We end up 4 scum, 4 vanilla (assuming we've lynched one today) and 1 mason. That mason is now useless and scum almost control the lynch between them (enough to probably stall to no lynch if they want so they can convert the remaining townies willy nilly)

Best case is scum shoot each other and we end up 2 scum, 3 masons and 4 vanilla. That means we only have a 33% chance of hitting right, but scum are left with a very difficult choice between trying to convert to increase their numbers of killing the masons to remove the confirmed town.

Most likely case is 4 scum, 3 mason and 2 vanilla. Masons claim and it will be almost impossible not to hit scum with the lynch. Next day is 3 scum, possibly 1 mason (though it's possible they both hit the same one if we're lucky) and 2 vanilla. Scum now need to start killing each other too, so which ever team is down to one will probably side with town to pick off one of the other to even the odds. Then if we're really lucky the last two scum shoot each other in the night. Or they both shoot the remaining mason, or one shots the other and one shoots town. Either way town ends up in a decent position unless both scum manage to convert a vanilla.

Even if the masons don't claim tomorrow but subtly push the lynch and the game (so scum have less chance to convert a vanilla or kill a mason) we should be winning (in fact that might even be the better outcome though a little trickier to push through)



So let me ask you a question. How many masons (real or otherwise) are we going to push to claim before we do lynch a vanilla townie?


Here's a thought experiment; if everyone claimed today (including scum) we would start tomorrow with either 3 scum (we'd lynch one today), 1 mason and 5 vanilla or 5 scum, 3 masons and 3 vanilla. We hit another scum, next day we have 5 scum, 3 masons and 2 vanilla. Then we hit another scum, 4 scum, 1 masons and 2 vanilla. We hit one more scum (assuming the two teams are willing to turn on each other) and we're down to 2 scum and 2 vanilla. Scum at this point force no lynch and we basically end up with a stalemate, scum either shoot each other and town win, shoot the town and there is some kind of draw or try and backstab each other so that one team wins.

Even if we know who every scum member is we cannot be guaranteed to win this.

So actually, the more I think about it... this set up may be broken and there is no way for town to win, only a decision between which scum team wins.

Which game would that be?


From the setup document [emphasis added]: Is the bit I highlighted not helpful in the context of my post #334?


It took me literally 6 minutes from start to finish (opening the thread, doing the search with AF, and reading all of the 62, not particularly wordy, posts of his).

Are you seriously saying that you can't spare 6 minutes for something that may help you understand flubbucket's play?

To spare you some time, here's the link to the game thread.



Liar! You just did!



I'd like you to lay out your thought process behind this conclusion.


Does this explaining revolve around the questions you asked and the suggested replies?


True, the dungeon master is Lifthrasil. Is he the one deciding the lynch?


You've spent an awful lot of time talking game mechanics and advising people left and right to put their stances down. How about you take your own advice and make good on your post #351 promise to lay out your stance on your scum suspects? And yes, I saw you voted adaliabooks, I still want you to go on record.


Your scenarios are:
1. 3 mason 5 scum 3 vanilla (1 convert 1 nk)
2. 3 mason 6 scum 2 vanilla (2 convert)
3. 3 mason 3 scum 3 vanilla (1 nk 1 failed nk)
4. 3 mason 2 scum 4 vanilla (2 failed nk)

Unless my counting is way off, for all your talk of trying to hit scum, and chances between lynching scum and town being equal, none of your scenarios take into account the case of us actually lynching scum Today.

A few questions for you:
(I) How exactly did you come up with the numbers in your scenario #1?
(II) Does town really control the lynch in scenario #2?
(III) What are the odds of each scenarios?

Moving on to D3, I like how you took into account a number of cases regarding the N1 outcome, yet for N2 you take it for granted that each scum team successfully kills one Mason. Are you implying that they'd agree upon it during D2? Or is there some (other?) way that escapes me?



Is there more coming from you?



I wish you hadn't done it, at least not at this specific moment.