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General discussionForum Mafia #46: Henchmen Hijinks(800 posts)(800 posts)
(800 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted March 29, 2017
OK, I can get on board with that.

unvote trentonlf
vote Lifthrasil
Posted March 29, 2017
cool, then do it already

no way I'm joining that lift wagon now
Posted March 29, 2017
I'm home and finally back to my PC. I have no issue lynching Lift and will move my vote to hammer after Brasas has had a chance to catch up and post more. I am not sure what to think about adalia jumping over just yet, if Lift flips scum like I think he will that puts a damper on my theory.

I will also get back to the questions Hyper asked me here shortly, and am not sure if I should keep beating the dead horse that seems to be me and adalia.
Posted March 29, 2017
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HypersomniacLive: I still don't really see in that post that he's saying that your action made him doubt drealmer7's scumminess, only his take on the two of you as a scum-pair. Perhaps it is how you read it, I just don't see it. So. let me rephrase my question -what in his wording and phrasing reads like that to you?



if you had a D1 top pick that wasn't going to be lynched, and there were alternatives on the table you found scummy (let's say, just not as scummy), would you vote one of them or stick with your top pick, even if your vote could make the difference between Lynch and No-Lynch?

I'm waiting to see his rebuttal first. You know that I don't give anyone a pass, so don't go there. I asked you to do a reread on him for a very specific reason; I'm not asking you to make a 180 turn, but I see quite a bit of confirmation bias in some of the points you made.



OK, you do realise, however, that the assumption that you are town is a problem for me, yes? You say you are town, but for me it's still an assumption you are asking me to make. And as the scum points about adaliabooks remain for you, I got mine about you, so there's that.

.
Here is the exact quote from post 210 that I read that way: "I wasn't waiting for something to happen, I was confused by something that had happened. drealmer wasn't my top pick. I didn't want to actually share my top pick (trent) because I wanted to observe how he behaved more before approaching that. But trent picking drealmer as his top pick made me wonder if my theory was accurate.

Because if trent is scum (and I think it's fairly likely he is) then it's unlikely drealmer is. There's no reason to attempt any kind of bussing / distancing like that this early in the game."

I just went back over your original question and I apologize, It seems I misread it the first time. The way I read your question the first time was if my top scum suspect was not going to be lynched would I vote someone else, I missed the part where you said if someone else was scummy as well. If I only suspected one person I would not move my vote, but if I found more than one person to be scummy but the person I found to be scummiest was not going to be lynched I would have no issue voting the other person.

I will go back and read him again as town, although the points that have jumped out to me before will be hard to read that way.

Yes I do understand you are having trouble seeing me as town, and unfortunately there's not much I can do to change that view. You have to base your thoughts on me by how the events have unfolded in the game, the same way I have to base my thoughts on adalia.
Posted March 29, 2017
End of day, March 28

Votecount
adaliabooks (3): drealmer7, trentonlf, Lifthrasil
Lifthrasil (3): RWarehall, HypersomiacLive, adaliabooks

Not Voting: brasas

adaliabooks and Lifthrasil are closest to lynch at L-1
Posted March 29, 2017
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RWarehall: I think you need to keep reading. It shouldn't be hard to figure out why the game would be over by now if that were really the case. I wish that were the case though.
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HypersomniacLive: Don't think I follow, could you elaborate on what you mean?

I do agree that Lifthrasil hasn't done anything to address the issues raised against him. Regarding adaliabooks and trentonlf, I see quite a bit of confirmation bias on both sides, and their back and forth is starting to give me a headache as a good chunk of it comes more across as town on town bickering.
Let's put it this way...
If someone is seeing a scum team that does not include Adalia, nor any of the three players voting Adalia, then the real question becomes what the two scum off the mislynch are waiting for (the 5th town to join?). In this case you have a mislynch which would put the game to LyLo and place a lot of suspicion on the 3 people on the wagon.

If Hyper and I were the scum team, why wouldn't one of us (probably me) be hammering? I mean, the game would be at LyLo and the next two lynches would have to be me and Hyper and not Drealmer, Trent, or Lift who pushed the mislynch. As I said, it would be game over and I doubt we'd be trying to stretch this out. Does anyone see any real way, Hyper gets lynched first in that scenario? So why would we be waiting?

Just because the matrix allows something doesn't mean all combos make sense vs. events.
Posted March 29, 2017
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Brasas: ...
What are your thoughts of the current situation?


Meant to do this earlier:

Unvote adaliabooks
Posted March 29, 2017
@all

If there is a post (and there should be) where you summarized the scum case on your vote please ping me?
Would be helpful if you also mention who you think Adalia's / Lift's partner and why.

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trentonlf: What are your thoughts of the current situation?
That I'm still unprepared... the good news is I should have more time inside working hours to pop in and read, also that hyper's wagon references will be helpful.

Since I joined: found Drealmer's bloodlust for Adalia notable, but he did not jump on Lift is also noted. He also seems to be the only one throwing shade my way... given scum know I'm town I'm reading that as null.

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RWarehall: ... If someone is seeing a scum team that does not include Adalia, nor any of the three players voting Adalia, then the real question becomes what the two scum off the mislynch are waiting for (the 5th town to join?). ...
Ok, but I can see the vets playing it cool. If nothing else there is always the temptation to go for the grand slam / flawless victory / fatality finish.

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HypersomniacLive: ... was compelling, to say the least; that "ffs" at the end really sealed it for me.

/S
Shit. I'm starting to like you...

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HypersomniacLive: I assume that you excluded yourself as town (heh). Given that from an outsider's PoV, the possible unique scum-pairs are currently 15, and you can be paired with 5 other players, how did you arrive at the number 12?

... so I wanted clarification whether you considered the players' picks as unreliable to take into account

... since you just stepped in, scum would lie in what way? Or is the next part of your post an answer to my question?
Big thanks for the wagon references. I'll copy them and shift them around into chronological sequence (not that I'll get the time stamps though) as I find that more interesting.

On the walloftestesititis (not a typo - the condition is popularly known as wall-o-bollocks) - I just would like some synthesis to also take place. Docotoral dissertations are ok for dialogue, but some summary for the rest of us laz... ermmm... laser-focused executives... right... that would be peachy keen.

On Hyper - RW as pair. Well, you know... it's a little of this and a little of that. And ofc, even if you are not a pair, one of you might be with another dancer.

Then (I hope you see I'm answering bottom to top - will now bold the more important stuff.

I will assume your question means: why would scum lie, and not really how - the answer to which (in what way they would lie) is either very prosaic or requires me to mindmeld to an astonishing degree. I think the answer to why is obvious though, there was certainly enough focus on the repeat picks that I saw. And indeed I was being a subtle asshole by implication... ermm... I mean a brilliant inquisite investigator... when I followed up by asking you about that maybe cheeky / naughty intro to then picking not one, but two repeats. And that despite only having 4 other pair picks before yours, of the total 16 (excluding yours ofc). What a coincidence - chronologically speaking that is.

On the unreliability of the picks. I guess the above clarifies that yes, I see some chance that a few of the picks were lies. That does not make them unrealiable though - by default of the rules since one could not pick themselves, even a lie pick is a true not full scum pair. You with me all the way?

On the 12 possible pairs, unless I royally screwed up that's correct. Yes I did exclude those with me (I prefer the expression: duh). Maybe the delta is that you forgot to exclude the picks that we know are town pair picks based on the flips and mine?

Actually, per my above logic, the actual scum pairs are in a even smaller pool than 12. Even if scum lied about a pick, their pick excludes them and therefore is a reliable not scum pair pick. So thanks mate, I can tick off a couple more in my list. :) I don't get your 15 by the way, nor what you mean by outside POV. Any town looking at the picks and excluding pairs should have a similar number to mine? I haven't actually counted that - maybe plus / less 1? I'll try to have a looksie at this but actually the above point reducing the pairs seems more relevant rght now.


This is gettign long. Need to finish...

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drealmer7: snip
Always nice to play together mate :) despite all that bloodlust from boredom :D

On the affliction we see around us, I call it walltestesitis. Not to be confused with walltextitis.

Now, you can be honest with me. Are you scum again?

PS: I have no idea why gogtrial subbed and it doesn't really matter. I know he was town, because I am town. Now I might still be the hammer on either of those two, which come to think of it, Trent moving off Adalia kind of is interesting? Quick check. Well Trent-Adalia is not a scum pair for sure... thx Gamma!
Posted March 29, 2017
I'm caught up and leaning towards hammering Lift.

Is there anything open in the agenda that people want to discuss? I'll for sure come by and post more later today.

@RW
Still would like some comment on your statistical comments on frequency / likelyhood of repeats from early D1.

@Drealmer
How are you feeling on Lift vs Adalia for the lynch?

@Adalia
Any thoughts on me? I need a ego-boost.
Posted March 29, 2017
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Brasas: @all

If there is a post (and there should be) where you summarized the scum case on your vote please ping me?
Would be helpful if you also mention who you think Adalia's / Lift's partner and why.
I'm on my phone so please bear with me

Lift makes a case for adalia in post 483,
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_46_henchmen_hijinks/post483

adalia makes a case for me and drealmer in post 486 and finishes in 488, https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_46_henchmen_hijinks/post486

Hyper made a case for me in post 505,
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_46_henchmen_hijinks/post505

Lift makes another case for adalia in post 510,
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_46_henchmen_hijinks/post510

RW made a case for Lift in post 529,
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_46_henchmen_hijinks/post529

drealmer makes some reads in post 550,
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_46_henchmen_hijinks/post550

Hyper makes a case for me and Lift in post 556,
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_46_henchmen_hijinks/post556

A story from Hyper in post 568 that I believe was about me and Lift,
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_46_henchmen_hijinks/post568

My case for adalia in post 570
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_46_henchmen_hijinks/post570

I started my case on Lift in post 592 but did not finish
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_46_henchmen_hijinks/post592

Lots of reading, and I'm sure I missed something as there's a lot to go over. I hope you are able to catch up today, I plan on hammering in the next 12 hours unless you tell me you need more time.
Posted March 29, 2017
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Brasas: @Adalia
Any thoughts on me? I need a ego-boost.
Not really... you're pretty much a null at the moment.

trent is stating intent to hammer Lift, so if he does flip scum he could well be doing so just to get town cred and set it up to try mislynch me tomorrow. Or maybe he's genuinely town (I find that doubtful) and Lift and someone else is the scum duo (you are high up the list in that case, assuming that's not a disallowed pick, I can't remember)... If Lift is scum our biggest danger is that both me and trent are actually town as the logical next step is to lynch one then the other (if the first is town), which would be gameover if trent is indeed town.

If Lift doesn't flip scum then I have to re-evaluate slightly and you will get more consideration. Right now your just a (hopefully) town vote.
But at least unlike drealmer you seem to be leaning in the right direction.


Anyway, one of you lynch Lift and lets get this over with...
Posted March 29, 2017
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HypersomniacLive: [...] OK, you do realise, however, that the assumption that you are town is a problem for me, yes? You say you are town, but for me it's still an assumption you are asking me to make. And as the scum points about adaliabooks remain for you, I got mine about you, so there's that.

.
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trentonlf: Yes I do understand you are having trouble seeing me as town, and unfortunately there's not much I can do to change that view. You have to base your thoughts on me by how the events have unfolded in the game, the same way I have to base my thoughts on adalia.
Actually, this was not addressed to you, but noted that you commented on it.



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RWarehall: Let's put it this way...
If someone is seeing a scum team that does not include Adalia, nor any of the three players voting Adalia, then the real question becomes what the two scum off the mislynch are waiting for (the 5th town to join?). In this case you have a mislynch which would put the game to LyLo and place a lot of suspicion on the 3 people on the wagon.

If Hyper and I were the scum team, why wouldn't one of us (probably me) be hammering? I mean, the game would be at LyLo and the next two lynches would have to be me and Hyper and not Drealmer, Trent, or Lift who pushed the mislynch. As I said, it would be game over and I doubt we'd be trying to stretch this out. Does anyone see any real way, Hyper gets lynched first in that scenario? So why would we be waiting?

Just because the matrix allows something doesn't mean all combos make sense vs. events.
The hammer always draws attention, so there's that. But I can't disagree that the flow and development of events is to be taken into account.



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Brasas: [...] Big thanks for the wagon references. I'll copy them and shift them around into chronological sequence (not that I'll get the time stamps though) as I find that more interesting. [...]
I don't know if you already did the copying and shifting, or if I"m breaking any rules here (nothing that isn't public knowledge already), but I already keep track of the votes in chronological order. (dates are based on my timezone), so could save you the time and trouble Save the first of the attached files, and rename the extension from "png" to "xlsx".


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Brasas: [...] On the 12 possible pairs, unless I royally screwed up that's correct. Yes I did exclude those with me (I prefer the expression: duh). Maybe the delta is that you forgot to exclude the picks that we know are town pair picks based on the flips and mine?

Actually, per my above logic, the actual scum pairs are in a even smaller pool than 12. Even if scum lied about a pick, their pick excludes them and therefore is a reliable not scum pair pick. So thanks mate, I can tick off a couple more in my list. :) I don't get your 15 by the way, nor what you mean by outside POV. Any town looking at the picks and excluding pairs should have a similar number to mine? I haven't actually counted that - maybe plus / less 1? I'll try to have a looksie at this but actually the above point reducing the pairs seems more relevant rght now. [...]
By outsider's PoV i mean a third party not playing, hence would not have a reason to exclude any of the living players. Same as '"if one doesn't exclude themselves"; probably should have worded it like this.

Taking into account the town flips of Hunter65536 and GammaEmerald/JMich, and the pairs that are excluded by players' picks, the possible scum-pairs are currently 15, if one doesn't exclude themselves (see second attached file). So, unless I missed/screwed up something big, from your PoV you should be looking at 10, not 12. And no, I don't take out your possible 5, I don't know your alignment, and you could well be one of the scum; I take out mine, as the only alignment I can be 100% sure as town among the living players is my own.


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Brasas: [...] I will assume your question means: why would scum lie, and not really how - the answer to which (in what way they would lie) is either very prosaic or requires me to mindmeld to an astonishing degree. I think the answer to why is obvious though, there was certainly enough focus on the repeat picks that I saw. And indeed I was being a subtle asshole by implication... ermm... I mean a brilliant inquisite investigator... when I followed up by asking you about that maybe cheeky / naughty intro to then picking not one, but two repeats. And that despite only having 4 other pair picks before yours, of the total 16 (excluding yours ofc). What a coincidence - chronologically speaking that is. [...]
I can actually think of a couple of answers to the "how/ in what way scum would lie" question without having to resort to any mind-melding, and I wanted to see what you had thought about it. And while you shifted the question to the "why", what you said also answers the "how".
As I said, you are free to think that I was stupid, or cheeky as you want to believe, enough to come out third and repeat two of the four picks that were already out there, especially after the discussion about the attention and scrutiny repeats would, and did, draw; since you've read through D1, you must know which players pointed a finger in my direction for that, and in what fashion. So, that argument cuts both ways, and if I were you, I'd look for something actually solid to base my suspicion of a player on.


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Brasas: @all

If there is a post (and there should be) where you summarized the scum case on your vote please ping me?
Would be helpful if you also mention who you think Adalia's / Lift's partner and why. [...]
I was about to link you to my posts, but after refreshing I see you're all caught up, so not sure It's needed any longer?

I assume you are going to share why you're looking at Lifthrasil, yes?



Speaking of him and going back to track my posts/arguments about him, I realised that I left out something I wanted to include in my post #613 to him in regards to his dancing around the arguments about his scumminess, so here it is.

He protested about not having the time or inclination to fish out things addressed to him hidden in a shitload of other stuff, yet managed just fine to notice my first comment to him in my post #598 (because that gave him another opportunity to proclaim his innocence while pushing for adaliabooks... nah!) but somehow completely missed my next comment to him, right under the one he replied to, about his hasty and suspicious vote on adaliabooks that put him at L-1.
Attachments:
gog_mafia46_vote.png (19 Kb)
gog_mafia46_d2-s.png (33 Kb)
Posted March 29, 2017
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HypersomniacLive: ...
That's the second time I've misread your posts, starting to think I can't read anymore. When I read that post yesterday I would have sworn it was addressed to me.
Posted March 29, 2017
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trentonlf: That's the second time I've misread your posts, starting to think I can't read anymore. When I read that post yesterday I would have sworn it was addressed to me.
Lifthrasil appears to suffer from a very similar malady... perhaps the two of you should cut down on close, private contact? *wink wink*


But since you are here, and claim that you're not Lifthrasil's scum-buddy, that you find him suspicious and likely to be adaliabooks' scum-buddy, what do you think of that vote of his that put adaliabooks at L-1, and why didn't you comment on it at the time?
Posted March 29, 2017
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Bookwyrm627: *kills mook, polishes new rifle*
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HypersomniacLive: Stop being a tease!
Fear not. Once you are proven as a good guy, we'll see about getting you some spare arms.
Attachments:
i_promise.jpg (15 Kb)
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionForum Mafia #46: Henchmen Hijinks(800 posts)(800 posts)
(800 posts)