That the game were over? Amen to that...

I'm kind of hoping I do just get lynched at this point as it seems the far easier option than having to go over all this again tomorrow...

Then let me ask you...what are your thoughts on Lift?

Because frankly, I'm not sure what to make of you v Trent. I'm actually glad your pairing is excluded and I'm not sure that I'm not seeing two townies going at it. I think Lift is more a sure thing. I think he's been flaming the fires and when he was called out on it, I noticed he didn't try to explain why he's right to lynch you, but how he's prone to tunneling...

Let me ask Trent the same question...

How many viable pairings don't involve Lift? How many do?

I worry because a mislynch here means we have to be right twice and I'm not sure I have the magic scum pair pinned down. But if we are right this time, we get two chances to get Lift's partner correct.

I would happily vote Lift today if I thought he would get enough votes to lynch him. Nothing he has done since voting me has instilled me with confidence and whatever town reading I was doing of him is long gone. He does seem the strongest candidate to be buddy to a scum trent, though I feel trent is almost certain scum.

@all

Too many walls of text. I did steal some hours and played around with Excel. Really want to look at wagon progression.
There's "only" 12 possible scum pairs. Hurrah?

By the way, because I sure as heck did not and will not go check the other game this one is based on, let me make my assumption clear in case I'm being super stupid. The pair picks happened before rolling for scum and were all determinative (regardless of whether they came from a later town or a scum) by which I mean, none of those pairs can be both scum together, as per the setup of how scum was rolled.

Some, maybe? It's a bit WIFOMy if scum would lie about their picks.
But I said pairs in general and looked at that, not just picks of pairs.

Speaking of which, how cheeky were you feeling when you posted the below @Trent:
(emphasis mine and manual quote tags - crossing fingers)

Because it doesn't take much squinting to see scum hyper with a malicious grin and twinkling eyes.
So is scum hyper a naughty boy that likes to rub his [censored] all over his victims' faces?

You are a cool cucumber.
Even another scum clean sweep D2 and N2 leaves us 3:2 on D3. So what exactly do you mean that the game would be over already?

I do agree I'm still woefully behind on the vendettas that certainly have been at least partially planted and fed with delicious manure to spread FUD. Hence why I think wagon analysis might be more important than actually trying to read every detail of why A thinks B is scum, or B thinks the same of C, ad eternum in minutiae...

I mean, the walls of text in this game are sure something of wonder. The 7th wonder fo GOG almost... the great wall of [censored]. :D

Taking the opportunity, can we talk a bit of statistics? How many random runs did you base your early observations on likely number of repeats?

Quick check in between service calls.

The only person Lift can not be a pair with is you, Hunter was also one.

As I said before, I have no issue lynching Lift. I was At the start of my thoughts on him that Hyper asked for, but it got late and I plan on finishing it tonight along with addressing adalia's and Hyper's questions (hopefully I have time to get to all of that tonight, there's a lot to go through)

welcome, brasas

how wonderful of you to take over

seriously, they all caught wall-contagion, right? it's not just me?

so my current surface level thinking here is that gogtrial didn't know what to do as scum, maybe even got into mlehness in scumchat at how to navigate it, refused to hammer scum-bud adalia because they figured it'd implicate him either way when adalia flips scum

I'm not saying that is why he replaced out, I'm more thinking that came from an overwhelmed-ness of the giant dead horse beatings

I get the feeling adalia is def. scum and they're just doing everything they can to hold on to both scumslots because 2 scum in this setup makes winning soooo much easier than when 1 goes down

I'll give you a clue; it's me.

There are 48 hours left in D2. Deadline: Thursday, March 30 at 4:00 PM EST, 8:00 PM GMT

Votecount
adaliabooks (3): drealmer7, trentonlf, Lifthrasil
trent (2): adaliabooks, HypersomiacLive
Lifthrasil (1): RWarehall

Not Voting: brasas

adaliabooks is closest to lynch at L-1

*kills mook, polishes new rifle*

Don't think I follow, could you elaborate on what you mean?

I do agree that Lifthrasil hasn't done anything to address the issues raised against him. Regarding adaliabooks and trentonlf, I see quite a bit of confirmation bias on both sides, and their back and forth is starting to give me a headache as a good chunk of it comes more across as town on town bickering.



I assume that you excluded yourself as town (heh). Given that from an outsider's PoV, the possible unique scum-pairs are currently 15, and you can be paired with 5 other players, how did you arrive at the number 12?


Yes, we were asked to PM cristigale two pairs we didn't want to be the scum-pair before alignments were assigned, and were excluded from being together in the scum team (see her post #3).


I didn't say you were going to look only at picks. It was unclear to me from your wording if the only exclusions you were considering as reliable are those from the two dead players, so I wanted clarification whether you considered the players' picks as unreliable to take into account

As for the fist part I quoted, we went over this early in the game, but since you just stepped in, scum would lie in what way? Or is the next part of your post an answer to my question?


I couldn't help but laugh reading this. And I suspect that you're going to take this the wrong way, as you seem to operate under your misguided D1 impression that RWarehall and I are the scum-pair.

I may or may not, otherwise, be a naughty boy (Santa should know best), but no feeling cheeky whatsoever, I have no reason for that. I'm town and I told the truth about my picks. You are free to doubt them, if you feel so inclined, just keep in mind that, if you are town, you are only setting up yourself to reach false conclusions by doing so, and help scum beat us. If you are scum, on the other hand, I'm not sure it's the best way to pass shade on me at this point in the game, but you have to start somewhere, right?


Here are screenshots of wagons progression; strike-through indicates an unvote -sorry, too lazy to type it out here. Do share your thoughts.

Regarding the bickering about the amount of text to read, could someone explain to me how we are supposed to solve the game in a setup with no PRs and no Night-results other than the factional NK, if we didn't interact with each other, and everyone stays quiet? Cast votes around because... reasons?

Damn you're organised Hyper... I used to keep notes like that when I first started playing, but it became far too time consuming and boring.
Now I just write massive walls of text! (actually, I always did that)

Funny how no one is used to walls of text since I stopped playing... XD

Anyway, I'll shut up. I've said my piece, both for and against the various possibilities.

If anyone really wants me to address something I will, but otherwise I think I should take a step back so there isn't so much for everyone else to read.

Stop being a tease!



In my very first game, I was so insecure, I kept track of a ton of things, and had a spreadsheet for each player with notes aout their posts that stood out to me - that was flubbucket's milk game with a gazillion players, if you remember. I stopped doing that a game or two later, as it was too time consuming. Now, I only keep track of the lynches and the NKs, the votes/ vote counts, and wagon progression, all in a single spreadsheet. Of course, this game, I also fiddle around with the grid that Brasas hated so much.



I'm not playing the "guess the question" game, or any other games, with you. I always quote you when I want to address something specifically to you, so you can easily see it, even if you don't get a forum notification. But since this was not you going back to D1, the last time I asked this question was a week ago, and it wasn't even addressed to you, but to drealmer7 (who incidentally didn't answer it, and most likely won't).

So, here's the issue. I've said a good deal about why and what I find scummy about you, and even said my working theory for the scum-pair is you with trentonlf, and why, yet you keep dancing around all that, and go and answer a week's old question of mine that wasn't even addressed to you,while pressed for time.
I'd expect somebody under fire who has limited time for the game, to devote it to address the issues raised about him, and try to change the view of those that find them lynch-worthy. But all you've been doing is asking me to take your word you're not scum, mixed with some LyLo fear-mongering, while pushing the lynch of someone you put at L-1 in a very suspect way, and giving me zero arguments to work with, so that you could reasonably expect, or at least hope, that I'd reconsider.

So, here, since you had enough of my shit-load of other stuff, and my walls of text, and I read that as not to expect anything more from you as things stand, I'll make things simple, and perhaps give you also a bit of motivation.


Unvote trentonlf
Vote Lifthrasil


And with this, I'll focus on reading.

dude, HSL, just vote adalia, ffs

You know what, drealmer7? I think I might. That last argument of yours, on top of all your previous ones you were kind enough to lay out responding to my question to you, was compelling, to say the least; that "ffs" at the end really sealed it for me.

/S