Posted March 26, 2017
As said, I've been keeping a close eye on Lifthrasil from the very beginning;
As insignificant as it may seem, his very first post pinged me a tiny bit. Not so much for the RVS vote on drealmer7, as for the comment that accompanied it, and the surprise the game was already three pages in that prefaced it (I assume he's on the 20post/page setting, as his was post #46). It rang a tad fake, but it was only a tiny tingling feeling, so decided to say nothing and wait to see how things unfold with him.
The next thing that I noticed was a pattern of arguing both sides for just about everything and in pretty much every post he made. Seriously, just go reread him and see for yourselves if it isn't so. Now, town is uncertain due to being uninformed, so normally tries to consider every aspect they can think of and read things both ways to see what makes more sense, but there's a limit to it due to being uninformed, if for no other reason. With Lifthrasil it soon looked excessive, like he was trying to conceal the fact that he wasn't all that uninformed after all, especially since I don't remember him going to such lengths in games he was town. As days passed, I kept rereading him to see if I'd read this differently, but it still looked like he was trying harder than necessary, to support his towniness - "look, I don't know a thing and am always caught between "it could be A but it could well be B, with B the opposite of A", so I can't be anything but so town; everybody got it?" And he's worked this into his voting posts so smoothly, as to not be faulted for any mislynch - "I did my best, but turns out I was misguided; oh well".
I thought the awareness-degree of his tunnelling issue, and the constant, related self-checking/self-correcting odd; from following his previous games, while not always closely, I don't recall him making such a serious effort prior to this game, so the sudden change, and more importantly the degree of success from one game to the next, is impressive, to say the least.
And after it's been pointed out, after he's argued about it (post #232), after all the flip-flopping that went hand to hand with arguing both sides of things to death, in his last reply to RWarehall (post #548), he's arguing the exact opposite to justify what he's been called out for.
He's allegedly scum-hunting, always doing his "could be A, but then it could also be B, where B the opposite of A" routine, and somehow always making a decision in the end that is what town would expect of him. A tad too conveniently coincidental, imo.
adaliabooks thinks that LIfthrasil has seriously been trying to get drealmer7 lynched, but going over his posts, he hasn't really, imo; drealmer7 has been his safe, fall-back suspect all game long, and he's careful, if drealmer7's town, not to argue in a manner that could get others to think that he's prepping him for a mis-lynch (while injecting the idea that others may be doing exactly that), or connect him to drealmer7 should he be his scum-buddy - a few examples, post #85, #98, #122, #146, #194. And just to make sure nobody will take a second look at this, in his post #285, after some more flip-flopping, he emphases how insecure drealmer7 makes him.
But when he argued [emphasis added] "looks like scum hiding behind RL problems, because he just doesn't know what to write" (post #157), I found it odd as I expect Lifthrasil to know from his own experience with drealmer7 that he's not this sort of scum-player, and told him back then as much (post #158), he replied [emphasis added] "You might have a point there" (post #169); on the face of it, it looks like a bit of town-reservation, but then goes on and adds "Which is why I unvoted [...]", which looks like he's using a later argument to support an earlier action of his (he unvoted him in post #146).
One last thing about this. In his post #319 he argued a theory about Hunter65536 possibly being scum, and scum-buddies with drealmer7, but when I questioned him about the latter (post #322), he didn't address it, even though he replied to my post in his post #336.
All in all, I don't see town-Lifthrasil agonising over drealmer7's actual alignment, it looks more like scum-Lifthraisl falling back to drealmer7, if for no other reason than to keep the distraction alive, thus prevent town from working together in an organised way to nail scum.
On to more telling things.
Up until his post #410, he kept null-reading trentonlf, and made no effort to push him, or at least get him more engaged to get a better read on him (unlike he did/does with RWarehall, or even adaliabooks), even though he said trentonlf is worth watching as a dangerous scum-player. And while he said "if Hunter flips town, RWarehall, trent and adalia deserve a thorough look" (post #314), he never looked at trentonlf, thoroughly or otherwise. In fact, these two have engaged each other like once during D1, and once during D2 before Lifthrasil got into the spotlight. Lifthrasil has an almost identical record with gogtrial34987. And while he finds trentonlf's town-read of RWarehall strange, he quickly discards it because they can't be scum together (post #445), as if it'd be the very first time a scum town-reads a townie.
He didn't even blink when trentonlf said he finds Lifthrasil suspicious, very mildly at first (post #434), then more clearly (posts #438 and #443), while he's been pretty feisty with everyone else making the slightest of accusations, as if he's not even reading trentonlf's posts.
Here's a timeline of events I ponder if they're connected:
- Post #418: I ask adaliabooks to lay out what makes Lifthrasil one of the "towniest" players; phrasing and tone suggests that I don't share this view.
- Post #429: I ask trentonlf (and gogtrial34987) what they think of Lifthrasil; placed him with adaliabooks and RWarehall as to not make it too obvious.
- Post #434: trentonlf expresses his first mild suspicion of Lifthrasil; thought it possible that my asking adaliabooks about Lifthrasil alarmed him a bit, and was treating carefully.
- Post #445: Lifthrasil asks me who I'd vote as my top-scum; struck me as getting alarmed I'm looking into him in a non-positive light, and wanted to know for sure.
But the most telling thing, imo, are the latest developments, after adaliabooks voted and unvoted himself, and which I covered already in previous posts.
Then comes RWarehall, puts Lifthrasil in the spotlight, votes him and makes a case as to why we should lynch him first. Lifthrasil seems to flip out completely, seeing enemies where none were before (while not neglecting to argue the other side as well), and seems to mostly fight to get adaliabooks lynched a.s.a.p.This, again, feels like he's playing for gogtrial34987 and not so much against those that see him as scummy. And all of a sudden, Lifthrasil is aware of trentonlf pointing a FoS at him. When practically, one didn't exist for the other all game long.
Which brings me to the subject of distancing and bussing - trentonlf is a cold-blooded killer as scum, and would bus his buddy in the blink of an eye if the situation called for it. If they're scum-buddies, it feels like Lifthrasil was trying to keep a distance and not commit to a read on trentonlf for as long as he could, but my vote on the latter caught him off guard and panicky mode set in. Only when he himself got into the spotlight, he had no other choice, perhaps with the aid of RWarehall's own arguments, but to exhibit some active distancing by appearing to be at odds with trentonlf.
So, my current working theory since some days now is that trentonlf and Lifthrasil are our scum pair. RWarehall gave me some pause at first, because of the way he argued about Lifthrasil's scumminess; it felt a bit too much like his last game. But not enough to change my view on Lifthrasil, who himself has also failed to influence my view into a more positive direction; quite the opposite.
I still prefer the trentonlf lynch for now, as that would put to rest the adaliabooks and RWarehall issues once and for all, if he flips scum. It's possible that I'm wrong about trentonlf, more so about the scum-pair, of course, even though I don't quite see it right now, and having to sort through 8-9 possible scum-pairs Tomorrow, while at LyLo, is not something I'd like us to face. But it's a real possibility, unfortunately.
It's late, I'm tired, and may have messed up something in all that I wrote. Opinions and views are welcome.
On a side note, I really don't know what to make of drealmer7's latest post. If he's town and really can't get involved, he's dead weight for us and I wish he'd just subbed out at the first signs, and if he's scum, he's adopted a pretty shitty and cowardly play to win. And right after writing this, I now wonder if drealmer7 isn't Lifthrasil's scum-buddy after all, acting this way to give Lifthrasil credibility...
Could I borrow this for a bit? Only have a couple of issues to address, won't take long.
As insignificant as it may seem, his very first post pinged me a tiny bit. Not so much for the RVS vote on drealmer7, as for the comment that accompanied it, and the surprise the game was already three pages in that prefaced it (I assume he's on the 20post/page setting, as his was post #46). It rang a tad fake, but it was only a tiny tingling feeling, so decided to say nothing and wait to see how things unfold with him.
The next thing that I noticed was a pattern of arguing both sides for just about everything and in pretty much every post he made. Seriously, just go reread him and see for yourselves if it isn't so. Now, town is uncertain due to being uninformed, so normally tries to consider every aspect they can think of and read things both ways to see what makes more sense, but there's a limit to it due to being uninformed, if for no other reason. With Lifthrasil it soon looked excessive, like he was trying to conceal the fact that he wasn't all that uninformed after all, especially since I don't remember him going to such lengths in games he was town. As days passed, I kept rereading him to see if I'd read this differently, but it still looked like he was trying harder than necessary, to support his towniness - "look, I don't know a thing and am always caught between "it could be A but it could well be B, with B the opposite of A", so I can't be anything but so town; everybody got it?" And he's worked this into his voting posts so smoothly, as to not be faulted for any mislynch - "I did my best, but turns out I was misguided; oh well".
I thought the awareness-degree of his tunnelling issue, and the constant, related self-checking/self-correcting odd; from following his previous games, while not always closely, I don't recall him making such a serious effort prior to this game, so the sudden change, and more importantly the degree of success from one game to the next, is impressive, to say the least.
And after it's been pointed out, after he's argued about it (post #232), after all the flip-flopping that went hand to hand with arguing both sides of things to death, in his last reply to RWarehall (post #548), he's arguing the exact opposite to justify what he's been called out for.
He's allegedly scum-hunting, always doing his "could be A, but then it could also be B, where B the opposite of A" routine, and somehow always making a decision in the end that is what town would expect of him. A tad too conveniently coincidental, imo.
adaliabooks thinks that LIfthrasil has seriously been trying to get drealmer7 lynched, but going over his posts, he hasn't really, imo; drealmer7 has been his safe, fall-back suspect all game long, and he's careful, if drealmer7's town, not to argue in a manner that could get others to think that he's prepping him for a mis-lynch (while injecting the idea that others may be doing exactly that), or connect him to drealmer7 should he be his scum-buddy - a few examples, post #85, #98, #122, #146, #194. And just to make sure nobody will take a second look at this, in his post #285, after some more flip-flopping, he emphases how insecure drealmer7 makes him.
But when he argued [emphasis added] "looks like scum hiding behind RL problems, because he just doesn't know what to write" (post #157), I found it odd as I expect Lifthrasil to know from his own experience with drealmer7 that he's not this sort of scum-player, and told him back then as much (post #158), he replied [emphasis added] "You might have a point there" (post #169); on the face of it, it looks like a bit of town-reservation, but then goes on and adds "Which is why I unvoted [...]", which looks like he's using a later argument to support an earlier action of his (he unvoted him in post #146).
One last thing about this. In his post #319 he argued a theory about Hunter65536 possibly being scum, and scum-buddies with drealmer7, but when I questioned him about the latter (post #322), he didn't address it, even though he replied to my post in his post #336.
All in all, I don't see town-Lifthrasil agonising over drealmer7's actual alignment, it looks more like scum-Lifthraisl falling back to drealmer7, if for no other reason than to keep the distraction alive, thus prevent town from working together in an organised way to nail scum.
On to more telling things.
Up until his post #410, he kept null-reading trentonlf, and made no effort to push him, or at least get him more engaged to get a better read on him (unlike he did/does with RWarehall, or even adaliabooks), even though he said trentonlf is worth watching as a dangerous scum-player. And while he said "if Hunter flips town, RWarehall, trent and adalia deserve a thorough look" (post #314), he never looked at trentonlf, thoroughly or otherwise. In fact, these two have engaged each other like once during D1, and once during D2 before Lifthrasil got into the spotlight. Lifthrasil has an almost identical record with gogtrial34987. And while he finds trentonlf's town-read of RWarehall strange, he quickly discards it because they can't be scum together (post #445), as if it'd be the very first time a scum town-reads a townie.
He didn't even blink when trentonlf said he finds Lifthrasil suspicious, very mildly at first (post #434), then more clearly (posts #438 and #443), while he's been pretty feisty with everyone else making the slightest of accusations, as if he's not even reading trentonlf's posts.
Here's a timeline of events I ponder if they're connected:
- Post #418: I ask adaliabooks to lay out what makes Lifthrasil one of the "towniest" players; phrasing and tone suggests that I don't share this view.
- Post #429: I ask trentonlf (and gogtrial34987) what they think of Lifthrasil; placed him with adaliabooks and RWarehall as to not make it too obvious.
- Post #434: trentonlf expresses his first mild suspicion of Lifthrasil; thought it possible that my asking adaliabooks about Lifthrasil alarmed him a bit, and was treating carefully.
- Post #445: Lifthrasil asks me who I'd vote as my top-scum; struck me as getting alarmed I'm looking into him in a non-positive light, and wanted to know for sure.
But the most telling thing, imo, are the latest developments, after adaliabooks voted and unvoted himself, and which I covered already in previous posts.
Then comes RWarehall, puts Lifthrasil in the spotlight, votes him and makes a case as to why we should lynch him first. Lifthrasil seems to flip out completely, seeing enemies where none were before (while not neglecting to argue the other side as well), and seems to mostly fight to get adaliabooks lynched a.s.a.p.This, again, feels like he's playing for gogtrial34987 and not so much against those that see him as scummy. And all of a sudden, Lifthrasil is aware of trentonlf pointing a FoS at him. When practically, one didn't exist for the other all game long.
Which brings me to the subject of distancing and bussing - trentonlf is a cold-blooded killer as scum, and would bus his buddy in the blink of an eye if the situation called for it. If they're scum-buddies, it feels like Lifthrasil was trying to keep a distance and not commit to a read on trentonlf for as long as he could, but my vote on the latter caught him off guard and panicky mode set in. Only when he himself got into the spotlight, he had no other choice, perhaps with the aid of RWarehall's own arguments, but to exhibit some active distancing by appearing to be at odds with trentonlf.
So, my current working theory since some days now is that trentonlf and Lifthrasil are our scum pair. RWarehall gave me some pause at first, because of the way he argued about Lifthrasil's scumminess; it felt a bit too much like his last game. But not enough to change my view on Lifthrasil, who himself has also failed to influence my view into a more positive direction; quite the opposite.
I still prefer the trentonlf lynch for now, as that would put to rest the adaliabooks and RWarehall issues once and for all, if he flips scum. It's possible that I'm wrong about trentonlf, more so about the scum-pair, of course, even though I don't quite see it right now, and having to sort through 8-9 possible scum-pairs Tomorrow, while at LyLo, is not something I'd like us to face. But it's a real possibility, unfortunately.
It's late, I'm tired, and may have messed up something in all that I wrote. Opinions and views are welcome.
On a side note, I really don't know what to make of drealmer7's latest post. If he's town and really can't get involved, he's dead weight for us and I wish he'd just subbed out at the first signs, and if he's scum, he's adopted a pretty shitty and cowardly play to win. And right after writing this, I now wonder if drealmer7 isn't Lifthrasil's scum-buddy after all, acting this way to give Lifthrasil credibility...
Could I borrow this for a bit? Only have a couple of issues to address, won't take long.
