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General discussionForum Mafia #46: Henchmen Hijinks(800 posts)(800 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted March 24, 2017
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adaliabooks: [...] Quite frankly I don't know why they didn't kill you last night, I sure as hell would have if I had been scum, so I'm obviously not on the same wavelength as them.
As scum, especially in a setup with no PR, when you kill the decent/stronger town-reads early, you risk running out of people to hide yourself and/or your buddy/buddies, too soon. And you do want to keep around some of the decent town-reads that don't raise (much) concern, lest you risk running out of people to sway when every vote counts.

I do think the latter played a role in why gogtrial34987 was not the NK choice. I also think I gave scum little to no reason for concern during and up to the end of D1, and didn't give them much concern for the most part of D2 either.

Put it all together, and you have another reason why I still think that JMich replacing GammaEmerald played a role in the N1 NK choice.



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trentonlf: [...] You keep making arguments to clear yourself based on double standards.
Lifthrasil, who you still have as adaliabooks most likely partner, made a double standards argument to practically clear you, but I don't see you getting upset about that.


@gogtrial34987

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trentonlf: You can twist it how you want as you've done most things to fit your story, I think you've improved your scum game but in the end I don't think it will be enough.
[emphasis added]

Are you taking note? Apparently trentonlf learned his lesson from last time, and is playing for you instead of against his rival lynch-candidate. Or does it come more naturally to do so when scum? Hmm...



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Lifthrasil: [...] And I also don't think trent would actually do that, if he was dayvig.[...]
I'm pretty sure he would, as would he use his night-vig on N1; said so himself.


I'm very tired, and seeing that RWarehall popped in earlier, I'd like to hear what he's got to say before anything else.
Posted March 24, 2017
End of day, March 23

Votecount
adaliabooks (3): drealmer7, trentonlf, Lifthrasil
trent (2): adaliabooks, HypersomiacLive
drealmer7 (1): RWarehall

Not Voting: gogtrial34987

adaliabooks is closest to lynch at L-1

There are 5 days (+ several hours) left until the deadline: Wednesday, March 29 at 4:00 PM EST, 8:00 PM GMT
Posted March 24, 2017
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HypersomniacLive: .



Lifthrasil, who you still have as adaliabooks most likely partner, made a double standards argument to practically clear you, but I don't see you getting upset about that.


I'm pretty sure he would, as would he use his night-vig on N1; said so himself.


I'm very tired, and seeing that RWarehall popped in earlier, I'd like to hear what he's got to say before anything else.
There was no overplaying my surprise, I really was surprised when Hunter did not flip scum. The way he reacted to pressure being put on him felt like scum cornered and lashing out.

I can not disagree with you about the day vig or night vig on N1 on drealmer, he really pushes my buttons most of the time.
Posted March 24, 2017
Frankly, I'm not sure what to believe about that kerfuffle. Something seems really off there. It almost seems to me as if one of the participants between Adalia, Trent and Lift are exaggerating for effect because the reasoning behind a lot of it seems rather weak. But I'm also worried that appearances may be staged as well, because without investigative roles, I firmly expected the scum team to figure out extreme distancing. So my word of caution for any town right now, don't necessarily exonerate the person who started a push or was greatly influential in a dispute that revealed scum. They might be doing so to get a free pass to the win. It's what I would do in a game like this (but I would have started it earlier). So unless the matrix excludes them, be mindful of it.

My gut says Lift is trying to play scum controller, guiding all conversation toward lynching townies through selective observations and "agreeing" with one side in every conflict between people he knows are townies. I realize this idea is at odds with what I just said about "playacting" unless it's Lift + Trent, but I'm having a hard time figuring out who is talking trash and who is honestly getting upset and not thinking so straight.

I really don't see why Lift is so hellbent on getting me lynched and keeping me in the scum equation except as a distraction.

Seriously, does anyone thinking straight really think I'm going to town read my scum buddy if I'm scum in a game without investigators? (re: Adalia). Yet, that is the narrative Lift is trying to push. I think he even tried to use the fact I hammered (after failing my "Use Phone" check to be L-1). I just get the feeling he's pushing the story too much. Others have given their misgivings and it just seems very odd for a player of Lift's quality to push the idea that scum are "trying to save one another" when the correct move in a game like this is to distance. I get the feeling he isn't really trying to figure the game out, but rather putting enough ideas (doubt) out there to mislead town.

So, I really think he's the best lynch today
Unvote Drealmer
Vote Lift

And I get it, we learn next to nothing definitive about his partner if he is scum as he pairs with everyone left in the game. But, there is one very important thing we get if he is scum...one extra day and thus, two lynches to find his partner.

While I don't see him as town, should I be wrong, the fact he has pairings with everyone left means 5 of the 11 combinations are off the table leaving just 6.

No order whatsoever except the order of my personal chart:
1) Gogtrial + Trent
2) Gogtrial + Drealmer
3) Gogtrial + Adalia
4) Hyper + Adalia
5) Trent + Drealmer
6) Drealmer + Adalia

And while we'd be at LyLo, I think I could deal with that list...

As to the Trent wagon, I don't particularly find him that scummy, but it hasn't escaped me that he has been a bit too "agreeable" with people. Maybe he's trying to blend in. Maybe.

In short, I really don't prefer his lynch, but if we are approaching deadline and are one short, I'm not going to be a roadblock. (For the record, I probably wouldn't roadblock Adalia either.) At least one of Gogtrial, Trent, Lift and Adalia are definitely scum. Two if both Drealmer and Hyper are both town. And really for a newer player, I think I'd see more issues from Gogtrial if scum despite a say chat. So, one or two of Trent, Lift and Adalia seems more likely to me.
Posted March 24, 2017
I'm good with either adalia or Lift today, I think we hit scum either way. My votes on adalia right now, but if Lift is who a combination of Hyper, drealmer, or gogtrial want I have no issue switching over.
Posted March 24, 2017
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RWarehall: I really don't see why Lift is so hellbent on getting me lynched and keeping me in the scum equation except as a distraction.
... have you checked your participation lately? Perhaps that is a misjudgement on my side, but I always see a lack of participation as scummy. Plus the way adalia defended you to prevent your lynch. Yea, I know, scum wouldn't do that, yada yada WIFOM.

Well, looks like adalia has skillfully placed me in the position he was complaining about earlier. Damned if I do, damned if I don't. Even if I switch now to trent and hammer him, adalia and HSL will accuse me of bussing, if trent is scum, and will accuse me of securing a mis-lynch, if he flips town.

@HSL: what double standard are you referring to? The way I see overacting in adalia's first post but don't see the overacting as strongly in trent's? Have you even read the posts I referred to?

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adaliabooks: Ok... What the hell?

I'm somewhat surprised, but not too much, that Hunter was town... but why the hell did scum kill JMich?
Gamma was a prime target day 1 and JMich a complete unknown... seems a VERY odd choice for the NK.
...
I call that overacted. Complete with expletives like 'what the hell' and a caps VERY. adalia then goes on to tell that he totally doubted Hunter's scumminess - but was too late to do anything and didn't want to look bad. I called that scummy and I still do.

Let's look at trent's post, to compare:
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trentonlf: @adalia, if you are not really surprised Hunter flipped town why were you saying yesterday he was the right lynch and you had him leaning scum? I was really surprised Hunter flipped town with how he was reacting to pressure on him. He apologized later for his reactions and said would post more later and then nothing. It all screamed scum being caught, and the fact that he flipped town was a big surprise I would say.
Trent questions adalia about his 'not really being surprised' and states, that he believed Hunter to be scum. And explains why. And don't forget: plenty of us thought Hunter scum, otherwise he wouldn't have been lynched. The only emphasis he uses is the word 'big' surprise. Which adalia tries to spin as 'overacting' - while himself having overacted more at daystart.

Do you really think, I'm the one with double-standards here? I am really starting to wonder if it isn't adalia+HSL after all. In this case, sorry RW for lobbing you in a theoretical scum-pair with adalia for most of the Day. It just looked that way. But the way adalia and HSL cooperated effectively in turning the situation around either means that HSL has been thoroughly mislead by adalia - or that they are a team.

But the main point: going back over adalia's posts (please do that yourself. His script helps) I still see all the little scum pings that, put together, form a picture for me. I don't know anymore who his scum-partner is. But I think my vote is in the right place for now. If the deadline threatens, I'll hammer trent, but I think we will lose then. Since I don't see his big scumminess that adalia and HSL have worked out between them.

@trent: so, you assume that I could be scum who is out to bus his scumbuddy? And has been on and off for quite a part of the Day? Or why the sudden suspicion of me?

@HSL: do you REALLY not see the scumminess in the Daystart of adalia? And in the way he defended RW, for whatever reason? And the way he self-voted for show? And yes, I call that for show. As I explained previously, there was not good reason for town to do that and risk an unnecessary town death, and, predictably, he unvoted himself again after having made his LAMIST point. And yes, I hate town-self-votes and they seem very scummy to me and usually are. Especially when they are done for drama, as in this case, without the pressure of a deadline. I've seen it once that a towny self-voted under pressure - and even then it was a bad idea. But more often it's just for show. Probably I shouldn't have jumped off adalia. But I thought it can't hurt to not risk a too quick hammer and talk more since there is no deadline - and look where that got us.
So, HSL, do you really not see all that? Or why are you suddenly so sure that adalia is town? In the beginning of the Day I had the impression you suspected him. What made you change your mind in spite of all these little tells?
Posted March 24, 2017
I could vote Lift, but I'm less sure of his scuminess the I am of trents.

@Lift
I won't hold it against you if you hammer / vote trent, if he does flip scum there is a chance you bussed him but there's also a chance it's gogtrial (or drealmer) who is his buddy.
Posted March 24, 2017
My weekend looks likely to be filling up with a computer upgrade which is turning out to be more involved than expected. I'll probably be re-reading and analyzing on a laptop in between of things, but my posting might be scarcer than I'd like. So, HSL, I'll indeed hold any hammering until after the weekend.

@Drealmer What are your current thoughts on trent and Lift?

@all If trent is scum, then lynching him would confirm three townies (four at the start of the game). So, I can conclude nothing else then that preventing his lynch should be a priority for his scum-partner. But - based on your own scum-experience - would you expect such a scum-partner to read him as town (which... I don't recall anyone at all doing all game long?), or null, or explicitly scum (but then presumably just never as much scum as someone else)?
Posted March 24, 2017
@adalia: that's nice to know.

@gogtrial: depends on who the partner is. All three are possible. RW has shown in the last game how skillful he is at distancing and bussing. So he might scum-read a scum-partner ... or go for the opposite, using WIFOM, and say 'come on, do you really expect ME to buddy up openly to a scum partner?' HSL would probably stay non-commital. Collecting both scum and town points about his partner, without ever explicitly placing him as scum or town. After all he is known as Mr. Reluctant Voter and is frequently holding back his own thoughts while questioning everyone else. Both can't be trent's partner, but this behaviour might also apply generally to scum-buddies. drealmer ... I don't know. But with his 'I suspect everyone' stance, he is on the safe side anyhow. Me, that's for others to analyse, since I, of course, would try to treat a scum-buddy like I treat anyone else. I think everyone would try that and succeed to varying degrees. trent himself would probably stay distant at first, but wouldn't hesitate to bus a scum-buddy, if necessary. adalia, I don't remember how he played with scum-buddies in the past. I have the feeling that he might be protective of scum-buddies, slightly town-reading them. But that's just a feeling, which might also originate from this very game and how I percieved him to be protective of RW. And which is moot if it isn't RW who is adalia's scum-buddy (if adalia is scum).
Posted March 24, 2017
*sharpens knife*
Attachments:
here_i_come_agai.jpg (5 Kb)
Posted March 24, 2017
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gogtrial34987: @all If trent is scum, then lynching him would confirm three townies (four at the start of the game). So, I can conclude nothing else then that preventing his lynch should be a priority for his scum-partner. But - based on your own scum-experience - would you expect such a scum-partner to read him as town (which... I don't recall anyone at all doing all game long?), or null, or explicitly scum (but then presumably just never as much scum as someone else)?
It really depends on the game and the situation. In this game I think it's even more imperative to retain distance with a buddy because once we get a scum flip (in most cases) it narrows the pool of possible targets.
So if trent is scum then his partner will really want to avoid his lynch as it does remove a few large unknowns from the pool (me and RWarehall) while also not being seen as being too actively doing so (because then it might be obvious after the flip they are buddies, assuming they are not successful in preventing a lynch).

I did think you were displaying that tendency at the end of Day 1 with Hunter and would have pursued you if he had flipped scum. It looked like you were trying to stop his lynch and lynch Gamma instead, but without shouting from the rooftops that you thought he was town.
I also feel that's what Lift is doing, and why he is currently my top pick for trent's partner.

But Lift is also right, we all have different approaches to buddies and how to deal with them. He's right that I tend to be over protective (though wrong that this applies to RW) as I see the game in a very statistical way and feel that scum can't really afford to lose any of their number till the closing days of the game if they really hope to win. So if it looks like a buddy is going down day 1 I tend to fight overly hard to stop it because I feel the game is pretty much over if I don't (which isn't strictly true and causes me more harm than good in the long run).
You could indeed apply that logic to RW in this game, but the fact that RW's scum flip would seriously incriminates me (and mine his) makes defending him a little less of a good move (plus trading one scum for another in a game with only two scum is basically a pointless move anyway, so if we are buddies it does me no good whatsoever to save his life at the expense of my own)
Posted March 24, 2017
I just get the feeling Lift is mostly passing shade. His attacks are very one-dimensional. They don't seem to display any real greater attempt at looking at the bigger picture. There is no doubt in his statements, yet his vote keeps swinging around. Comes off as scum try to prime some mislynches.

For example, post 531, "I always see a lack of participation as scummy". Funny statement after we just had two low participation players be confirmed town this game. And also funny considering Drealmer's lack of participation, but it's absolutely scummy coming from me...

Or that he has accused both Trent and Adalia of being my scum buddy. And the justification is just that they see me as more likely town than scum. In short, because they are participating and giving reads...how dare people give an opinion that isn't calling someone scummy...they must be scum...as if that makes sense.

I really didn't see Adalia do anything day 1 that looked that scummy to me. Seemed the same old town Adalia, sometimes posting things which aren't necessarily very thought out, but nothing all too malicious. I didn't see any outward manipulation in the day 1 posts. He didn't seem to be "guiding" town the way Lift is seemingly doing day 2. Instead, the whole thing turned into how both of us are scum because we see each other as town. Still makes me wonder what people supposedly saw as scummy in the first place...which was the point I was trying to get at when people instead piled on...

I think the biggest scum tell about Lift is how, in all his attacks, he doesn't really seem to display any real doubt about his reads. Seriously, as Town, I still worry I have this wrong. But post after post, Lift is just so certain about everything. It just doesn't feel right. It feels like sham-town play. He's looking at who he can exploit, what arguments he can use to pass shade, and it doesn't give me the impression he's worrying about "solving the game", that he's really considering the ramifications of his "reads" especially if they are wrong.

That's pretty much it from me. I'll go back to my cubby hole. I've said my piece. You either see what I'm seeing or not. Saying any more would be just repeating the same thing.

But I do suggest, go back and re-read Lift twice. Once looking at him as scum. Once looking at him as town. Draw your own conclusions. It's your vote...
Posted March 24, 2017
Still very tired and busy, so properly going through everything will have to wait until later (my) tonight. For now:


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RWarehall: [...] At least one of Gogtrial, Trent, Lift and Adalia are definitely scum. Two if both Drealmer and Hyper are both town. And really for a newer player, I think I'd see more issues from Gogtrial if scum despite a say chat. So, one or two of Trent, Lift and Adalia seems more likely to me.
Not sure I follow, what issues do you see from gogtrial34987 if scum?



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adaliabooks: [...] (plus trading one scum for another in a game with only two scum is basically a pointless move anyway, so if we are buddies it does me no good whatsoever to save his life at the expense of my own)
I have to disagree regarding your case - if your scum-buddy is a stronger scum-player than yourself, saving their life at the expense of your own makes good sense if (it looks like) one of you is going down anyway. It may not do you any personal good, but it does plenty good to the scum pair as it gives scum a better chance of winning.
Posted March 24, 2017
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Lifthrasil: @trent: so, you assume that I could be scum who is out to bus his scumbuddy? And has been on and off for quite a part of the Day? Or why the sudden suspicion of me?
I do not put it past you at all to be busing a scum buddy, and distancing yourself from him is exactly what you would do as scum. He has been under pressure today and you don't want to defend him too much because when he flips scum you look bad. adalia even admitted he is overprotective of his scum buddies, just like he has been with you most of the day. I'm not fooled by his sudden reversal about you. And this was not all of a sudden suspicion, I pointed it out in post 443 my suspicions of you and him, and it has not changed.



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gogtrial34987: @all If trent is scum, then lynching him would confirm three townies (four at the start of the game). So, I can conclude nothing else then that preventing his lynch should be a priority for his scum-partner. But - based on your own scum-experience - would you expect such a scum-partner to read him as town (which... I don't recall anyone at all doing all game long?), or null, or explicitly scum (but then presumably just never as much scum as someone else)?
That is a very subjective question. Everyone plays different and has different comfort levels in what they can or can't do. It would also depend on the situation in the game. Busing your buddy for no reason is a bad play, but saving your buddy when it's pretty obvious they are scum is just as bad a play. You have to evaluate every situation in a game and see what conclusions you can draw from it, maybe you are right or maybe you are wrong but don't let others decide for you because that's what scum will try to do, make up your mind for you. It's always good to get opinions, just make sure whatever conclusion you come to is yours and not an influenced one.
Posted March 24, 2017
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RWarehall: [...] At least one of Gogtrial, Trent, Lift and Adalia are definitely scum. Two if both Drealmer and Hyper are both town. And really for a newer player, I think I'd see more issues from Gogtrial if scum despite a say chat. So, one or two of Trent, Lift and Adalia seems more likely to me.
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HypersomniacLive: Not sure I follow, what issues do you see from gogtrial34987 if scum?
First, that should say "day chat".

Let's be blunt, I see issues with everyone and am trying to weigh them. For example, it still bothers me that you were not the N1 kill. You seemed like the most obvious choice to me. But I can also see how Lift (for example should I be right and he's scum) may have thought he had you where he wanted you.

So what I'm saying is that I see fewer concerning issues with GoGTrial than the rest.

If you want examples of specific issues...

I still worry a bit about the end of day 1 and the reluctance to hammer Hunter on the grounds that maybe he was instructed in day chat not to be the hammer. That might explain the awkward shift to Gamma. At the same time that is weighed by his explanation that Gamma was his first choice and he thought he had two hours to discuss it. It's an issue, just not one that concerns me that much.

I also didn't like his push against me in post 437. His explanation and vote came so suddenly, made me wonder again if someone had asked him to make a push in day chat. The fact he talks of warming a lot to Lift with his recent posts and already having him leaning town in that post does also worry me a bit given my suspicion of Lift.

It's certainly something I'm looking for in my read of him, whether he feels like he is being instructed or not. Right now, I don't see enough to be able to decide if he is or isn't.

But again, if those are the greatest of my worries about him, he's mostly off my radar. I don't plan to re-evaluate him until we successfully lynch the first scum when I'll have a definitive association to analyze in terms of interactions.
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General discussionForum Mafia #46: Henchmen Hijinks(800 posts)(800 posts)
(800 posts)