Yes you read correctly what I was saying, but I was not understanding what you were wanting. Yes the way he has gone after drealmer is what I would expect a town RW to do, I feel that if he was scum RW trying to get a mislynch from a town drealmer he would be pushing drealmer more to get drealmer frustrated and out of sorts.

You want the short story...

I'm trying to lay back and solve the game without interfering with my own reads.

The plan was to reveal ideas as they coalesced (like when I read through and spotted one player - Hunter - whose posts seemed very "meh" as opposed to everyone else's)

But given how by stating I was reading Adalia as town seems to be some reason to lynch the both of us, I'm not sure sharing anything more makes a lot of sense. All my reads are taken and then twisted as an excuse to do the exact opposite (somehow on the basis I'm scummy so ignoring my reads is ok). Why should I reveal anything when someone I suspect as scum will become an excuse to not lynch them and saying I see someone as town seems to be an excuse to lynch them.

At this point, I feel all I have left is my vote. If you want more than that, you'll have to lynch me. You'll then get my opinions, but you'll be at LyLo and there are far too many combinations, I doubt we would win. But that seems to be the only scenario where anyone would take what I have to say seriously without using it as an excuse to do the opposite. Unfortunately, it both involves my death and puts town in a precarious position.

Of course, maybe I'll figure it out. Then I'll share, but I seem to have two different scum team variants that I'm having difficulty resolving. I'm not happy with either of them entirely fitting events as they stand.

As to Drealmer, I think its closer to the truth, my vote is planted there because I'd rather lose to someone clever than someone whose only retort seems to be about other's "horrible logic" without really any explanation whatsoever. I have no great insight into Drealmer's scumminess. I'd hardly call it laser focus. The fullest extent is I'm parking my vote there if/until I see something decidedly better.

Amazing. For once I have to agree with drealmer. Self voting under these conditions is scummy. I can see ONE situation, where a self-vote from a townie makes sense. That is under pressure from a deadline to avoid a no-lynch, if there is something to be gained from the flip. And yes, I think it was adalia who once pulled such a stunt under pressure in the past, so I see where HSL's town-adalia assessment comes from. But we don't have time pressure yet, a no-lynch is out of the question anyhow and we are one step short of LyLo. Mislynch, while not immediately fatal, would be bad. So what town reason would be there to risk a self-mislynch? None that I see. What scum reason would be there? LAMIST. 'Hey, I'm even voting myself to help! I'm willing to sacrifice myself' (except I'm not, I'll withdraw my vote in time)

You know who can risk self-voting, because he knows that scum won't pile on? ... Scum! Town will hesitate to make a quick lynch out of a self-vote. So scum can bank on having time to 'make his point' and then withdrawing the self-vote again.

You know who CAN'T risk self voting in a situation like ours? Town. It needs only one towny who reacts to the self vote with another vote, then scum can pile on and force a mis-lynch. With a good excuse too.

I'm sorry, adalia. If you are scum, I can't let you get through with this. If you are town, this was a very bad move, IMO. Also I don't understand why, if this was supposed to be a trap and you even posted a 'got-cha' post when drealmer hopped on, you didn't vote drealmer. "Look at scum piling on!" ... but you're not voting scum because... ? Was this perhaps a day-chat coordinated stunt between the two of you for distancing? Is it drealmer and you, after all, instead of RW and you? In any case, a while it seemed to me that you were acting towny after all - but with this stunt you just hopped past RW again. Therefore:

vote adaliabooks

and if drealmer is actually adalia's scumbuddy who did his vote for show, he will probably hop off again. ... Or, now after I have said this, be forced to stay on and bus his buddy. In any case, I think adalia is scum, for the reasons detailed above, and tomorrow we can find out who is his buddy.


That being said, I still don't like RW's hold back attitude. That's not very towny either. Nor is it play-friendly. "Oh noes! Scum could twist my words to be seen as scummy! So I'm not going to say anything." You know what? Yes, scum will always twist your words and so will town, occasionally, to find scum. The art is to find who is doing it intentionally and who is doing it out of an honest mistake or miscommunication. With staying mostly silent this isn't possible. So your attitude doesn't help town and if everyone would play like that, there would be no game at all. So I'm asking you, RW, change it! Participate more!

It wasn't a trap, I would rather lynch me than RWarehall. I removed my vote over night to make sure I didn't get quick lynched by scum (and there was no danger of that last night because I was watching and waiting to unvote in case there was a pile up)
But I will happily replace it if necessary.

I will vote drealmer when I'm good and ready to, there is no rush, he's not going anywhere.

So your reading of RWarehall changed drastically from one of your suspects to so much town that you're even willing to sacrifice yourself for him? And why? He hardly posted anything. If you're town, I really don't understand your reasoning.

But I agree with you and RW that drealmer is scummy and I agree with RW that it would suck to lose to drealmer, whose survival is based solely on the fact, that he is always scummy. So I actually would be willing to lynch drealmer. If it wasn't for the fact that his two main 'opponents' are also my two other main suspects. I know that out of you three maximally two can be scum and all three combinations are possible. Of course it's also possible that one of you three is partnered with someone else. drealmer+trent, for example. Or RW+gogtrial? Or adalia+anyone but trent. But I am quite certain that at least one of (adalia, drealmer, RW) is scum. Possibly even two.

gogtrial feels town, but I don't know him, so I can't be certain. But while one should never exclude anyone completely, I am still quite sure that HSL is town. If he isn't, he really has been playing us masterfully!

Not quite, I briefly suspected him at day break but I have largely town read him all game.
I'm not willing to sacrifice myself for him per se, I'm willing to be lynched first because I can see exactly what will happen. RWarehall will flip town (if he doesn't then I really don't care about being lynched tomorrow, you still have a chance of winning) and I will be twisted to look like I was scum trying to profit from his flip and be lynched, and then we lose.
In that case I would rather be dead first so I don't have to bother tomorrow, or so that me flipping town might give you all pause on the whole situation and consider another option.
I just think his lynch is going to be a really bad one for town, as it doesn't really narrow the suspect pool at all if he flips town (which I expect him to)

Anyway, here's a big post I've been writing that wouldn't go through as one so I'm splitting it up, a bump would be appreciated:

trent and drealmer; A love story

I've already covered the whole anti revealing picks argument earlier in the game, so I won't bother doing so again. Here is a list of everything else I believe makes them (both) scum.

Trent agrees with drealmer over the revealing of picks, and makes a big deal of the fact he does so. These two have pretty much never got on ingame in my memory so this feels a little like making a show as to why they are not going to clash later in the game.

drealmer again goes a bit over board in agreeing with trent. It feels forced to me, as if it's an act.

trent starts buddying up to Hyper
while drealmer does the reverse and starts calling him out as scum (there's a lot of that, basically pick any drealmer post)
He also starts making the case for RWarehall as scum.

This is the first sign I've seen of the usual back and forth between these two, but again it feels slightly like an out of game comment and not as genuine as it could be. I wouldn't be surprised if this was meant as distancing.

trent mentions how he's trying not to jump all over drealmer

trent's aversion to scum lists, this is only a minor ping, I know a lot of people aren't overly keen on scum lists and they have various pros and cons, but I do feel explicitly stating it sounds like an argument not to state town reads (because scum don't like to do that, though more on that later)

trent's question to get the game going. This is what threw me off the scent originally, thinking that it was too risky to place your buddy as top scum pick like that when he already had a reasonable amount of heat. In hindsight the more unusual thing is that trent doesn't follow this with a vote. He explicitly stated to Hyper later that he was asking who people would vote for, so why not place a vote with it?

trent responds to my original accusation. Cool as a cucumber under pressure, I started to doubt my read as this is the response I would have expected more from a town player (except the end bit about go ahead and lynch me, I'm sure trent has said that on a number of occasions as scum or neutral, though possibly also as town. I know he gets frustrated with the game as I do sometimes)

drealmer returns to the game, makes no big deal out of disappearing and having to be prodded and attacks anyone who questions him in anyway over it. This is my biggest single scum ping for him. There are many genuine RL reasons why someone might not be able to post for a few days but apparently drealmer says it was nothing like that and he wasn't even away for long...
Claims trent is townie, and waffles on about some ridiculous theory he has on how he reads him.

trent has a go at drealmer over his absence and explanation, but softly
drealmer's response is much more measured than his response to Lift on the same subject.

More from trent about drealmer's absence and some subtle buddying to Hyper. Possibly an element of genuine annoyance here if they are buddies and drealmer disappeared.

Still trent making excuses about not pursuing drealmer, despite him still (apparently, couldn't see anything to the contrary) being his top scum pick.
Town reading RWarehall too.

trent responds about his lack of voting drealmer and instead votes Hunter and starts his wagon. This feels a lot like an excuse to stop calling drealmer is top pick and vote someone else.

trent responds to my list of day 1 candidates. Subtle buddying to me (which worked) to downplay my suspicions of him.
Another go at drealmer, but calls Gamma more likely to be scum out of the two of them. Sticks with his Hunter vote

drealmer claims he is willing to vote trent, still voting me though.

After my prodding, drealmer moves his vote to RWarehall, doesn't explictly town read either Gamma or Hunter but they are about the only players who didn't make it on to his scum lists. Setting himself for when he knows they will flip town.

Then we have the lynch. One scum on, one scum off. Pretty much the best option for scum in a lynch situation I think. trent got on the Hunter wagon early, didn't have to be the hammer, didn't even have to push it beyond a few initial thoughts about Hunter's response to RWarehall.
drealmer resolutely ignored the wagon completely, barely mentioned it at all and never entertaining the idea of joining it.

bump

Thanking you.

Continued from above:

This post from drealmer strikes me as the kind of thing scum often do at daybreak "Oops, sorry we lynched who ever was town!" kind of thing.

trent is very surprised at Hunters flip and really expected him to be scum. Again, feels like a forced scum response.

drealmer says he would kill any of us

and thinks killing JMich would be a logical NK option (I wouldn't put it past drealmer to openly support his own NK pick in thread)

drealmer puts trent at the top of his scum list with RW (despite them being an immpossible scum pairing)

drealmer votes RWarehall

trent responds to my matrix post, thinks Hyper is town but would put everyone else as possible scum. More buddying to Hyper.

drealmer suggests and [url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_46_henchmen_hijinks/post412]RW are the scum team but prefers RW (setting up a push for RW, him on the wagon this time and trent off)

trent says he would dayvig drealmer but says he is not the only one playing scummy.

drealmer gives a list of why we should lynch everyone (but him). Outlines a pretty good argument for trent being scum, but doesn't really follow it up and still places me and RW as top for being illogical.

trent town reads RW despite earlier claims that everyone but Hyper was scummy. This is a safe read for trent, even if he were to be lynched it gives nothing away as trent flipping scum clears RW anyway.
More town reading RW from trent
And more, with a side note of drealmer still being on the table, but not really.
Claims me and Lift are a possible team, despite town reading me at the end of Day 1 (and not mentioning Lift much at all that I could see)

drealmer back paddles a little on trent's scuminess

trent can't see me and RW as scum (seriously? at this point even I have a hard time believing we're not scum)

trent doesn't like my self vote

drealmer thinks I have to be lynched now and moves his vote to me.

trent calls me out for making him look bad however he votes (though no one had any problem when Lift did the same to me earlier)


So basically the two of them have both frequently called the other scummy but never placed a vote on each other. drealmer is surprisingly shy with his vote this game having only ever voted me or RWarehall. trent equally only placed one vote on Hunter, which doesn't seem quite how I remember his usualy behaviour (though I'm not 100% sure that is the case as it's been a while). Other than me now they both seem to TR opposing players so they can stay on seperate wagons to reduce suspicion and maintain distance, as if they were coordinating carefully in day chat.

Looking at it altogether it may not be much, a lot of subtle signs, gut reads and the process of elimination. But I'm pretty convinced they are scum, they are the only pair in the game that really make sense to me (though I could maybe see a side order of Lift + trent if Lift is really fooling me, kudos to him if he is).

As for voting... I think trent is actually the better option, for one if he flips scum he clears me, RWarehall and Hyper whereas drealmer only clears Hyper properly and I can see trent in a pair with gogtrial (or maybe even Lift) more readily than I can drealmer.

So vote trentonlf

And I think that's me pretty much done. That's my case. I will hammer me, or RWarehall, if it comes to that to avoid no lynch (either of our lynches are better than that) but otherwise trent or drealmer is my vote unless someone comes up with a very convincing argument otherwise.

Hm. Extensive analysis and you make a compelling case. Either you are town and are on to something, or you are scum and have just written a quite elaborate misleading piece. In any case well done. Well enough to offset that self-vote slip (I still see that as scummy). At least for the moment.

unvote adalia

But that doesn't mean, that you suddenly are cleared for me. Especially since I do disagree with your choice of target. Yes, you have made a good case that trent+drealmer is a possible scum pair. But even if they are, I would go for drealmer first.. I think it's better to lynch one of my three main suspects than to go for a second tier 'might be scum as well' suspect. After all, drealmer could very well be your scum-buddy too and all this piece about trent might be an elaborate scheme to distract from yourself and drealmer. Like: "Yes, sure, drealmer is totally scummy. But I'm surely not his buddy, look, trent would totally fit too!" So lynching trent first, based on a theory from you, would feel very risky to me.

So, how about that: we lynch drealmer first. If he flips scum (good chance that he will), you might be on to something and we lynch trent next. We can afford one mislynch then and if trent flips town, then I think my theory that it was drealmer and you after all is probably correct. And should drealmer flip town, we'll have to come back to RW and you.

I want to hear what trent (and HSL and gogtrial) have to say. Then I'll probably put my vote on drealmer. Unless someone points out something big I missed.

nice story you and your scumbud wrote there, holymoly

lifthrasil, really, does any of that actually sound like me?/how I'd handle anything? probably only the defending of the JMich scumkill (interesting how he's right-on about how I'd do that, almost like it was planned that way)

I'm almost always reserved with my vote, and expressing where I'm willing to put it is VERY towny

there's 0% chance I flip scum, btw

Unless it is trent and Lift after all... I still have trouble seeing Lift as scum, particularly as he has unvoted me when my lynch should still be relatively achievable. But I do seem to be the only one of that opinion.

I'd still happily go drealmer first, as I strongly believe he is scum.

Unless you're willing to put it anywhere. Which you are. Which isn't towny at all.

Unless you're scum.


I'm sorry, but you understood that wrong. This isn't at all about you and my first priority isn't "Who would be cleared, if the target flips scum." but "Who is most likely scum." ! Because if the target isn't scum, all this 'who would be cleared' is a moot point. So that should only become a deciding factor between targets of equal scumminess. Clearing you is no high priority, true, but I think we have a higher chance of hitting scum with drealmer than with trent. As I explained before. Lynching trent is better than lynching no one and I will put my vote on him to avoid a no-lynch, if it comes to that. But I would feel more comfortable with lynching one of my three main suspects and then taking it from there tomorrow.
Or in other words: I would rather be in the situation 'One scum down, who's next?' tomorrow than in the situation 'Oh, we fell for a wordy, elaborate scum story and now we're at LyLo.'

What about you? Do you think adalia is scum? Or is he town and has it all figured out? Are you sure, trent is scum? Then vote! You are big at questioning others and criticizing their errors, and yes, that has its use. But you are not so big on commiting yourself and that is not good.

(haven't read the last three posts yet; dinner first now)

I wouldn't clear him. But I'd have the reads of one more guaranteed townie to take into consideration (next to Hunter and Gamma both seeing RW as scum), and the knowledge that my own read was once again totally and utterly wrong, so I'd strongly weigh that along with everything else while making up my mind on how to proceed. (So, given the state of the game right now, if we end up lynching you, and you flip town, I'd give you better than even odds that I'd vote either drealmer or trent instead of RW the next day.)

Just in case: If you were utterly convinced that I was town, and we'd be at lylo, would you still go for trent above drealmer?

Voice-of-the-newbie: Does a tactic like that ever actually work? I can't imagine townies buying such an explanation (it'd sure get real consideration, but even at lylo the odds would be way too good for it to be a scum move to do other than lynch in response). But Lift, too, seems to consider scum obviously hammering to be a real risk to watch out for at points other than when that's game winning, so I guess this has actually happened in games here?

I might be blinded by my strong scum-read of adalia, but this makes me think there's something to trent's theory after all, as it's exactly what scum-you would prefer to win the game. (Mislynch drealmer, NK trent, bus adalia, NK the less gullible between me and HSL, and convince the other one that RW is scummier than you.)

I vastly prefer lynching adalia first. If adalia is town, that removes a big part of my suspicion of RW (and now of you), bringing trent and drealmer into strong focus. But if adalia is indeed scum, then we have two chances to find the partner (which for me atm would mean RW first, then you).

I guess this all does mean that voting RW first is no longer my preferred scenario.
unvote RWarehall

HSL: speaking of playing things close to the chest, I for one am looking forward to getting some clear reads from your PoV.

I did? Perhaps I did. Perhaps it's that just 24hrs ago or so, drealmer7 was only your fall-back suspect for Today's lynch, and that you seemed to be watchful of trentonlf. We do have another week till deadline, plenty of time for everyone to chime in, and discuss things.


My goal is for town to be in the "one scum down, who's next?" situation Tomorrow, but, while we could still find ourselves in LyLo, I don't base my view on things and the game on adaliabooks wordy story.


All in good time. Still scum-hunting.