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RWarehall (1): drealmer7
drealmer7 (1): RWarehall

Not Voting: adaliabooks, gogtrial34987, HypersomiacLive, Lifthrasil, trentonlf

At L-3, RWarehal and drealmer7 are closest to lynch.

Did I say it'd have taken "just a bit of effort"? Town would have no choice but to give him a chance, so it'd have taken him as much effort as it'd have taken for scum to mislynch him.


You mean like how RWarehall remained a question-mark in game #40 after replacing that newbie (sorry, don't remember their name) that looked and acted far worse than GammaEmerald? Or like how RWarehall remained one in game #45 after replacing HijacK who was about to get lynched?

Your and RWarehall's certainty that JMich wouldn't manage to turn things around is quite amazing. Not so much for what it says about JMich and him replacing GammaEmerald, as for what it may be saying as context when projected to players still in the game.


I guess the scum chat post game will tell us for certain, won't it?

As for the fear - there was at least one game where scum NK-ed a replacement the moment they were put into the game with the argument of "removing the unnecessary confusion/uncertainty they introduced" or something along this line. I don't remember which game that was, but it might be interesting to find it.


You said: and I asked: Key here being "that gives us the least info (for scum to prefer them over JMich on N1)" - that's not exactly the same question, is it?

It was more of a question I wanted to put out there for everyone to try and give an answer to themselves, so no, I didn't expect you to state who the towniestt is. But it is interesting that you managed to be fairly certain of 2-4 players after D1 that made it to that status. As is that while you refused to name them, in later posts you did exactly that. Not as straightforward as "so and so are town", but still. Hmm... who of those is in no actual danger from the next NK?


Putting aside that it wasn't GammaEmerald that got NK-ed, the flaw in your argument is that you present thins as if gogtrial34987, if scum, is the only one in the game. They are not, and the benefit for scum doesn't necessarily have to reflect positively on gogtrial34987 individually. They have a partner, a more experienced one with whom they can communicate 24/7; they may have decided that it was worth doing it if the upside for them was greater than the downside, like making it harder to pair their partner with gogtrial34987, possibly even making gogtrial34987's partner look good/better. even if any damage to gogtrial34987's image wouldn't be easy to manage.


And I did say how that looks to me now.


And a smart or/and experienced enough scum would know better than that, eh?


Inconsistent in what way? Be specific.

Well, I'm back. Let's see what you wrote so far.

Let's go through it:

I would have expected gogtrial to bite it. (He is so towny that I doubt, a mislynch on him would be possible to arrange for scum) So, while I do agree with adalia that the choice of JMich as NK is surprising, his surprise felt a bit exaggerated to me. Like a LAMIST post. Again. "such a VERY odd choice" (i.e. 'I would never have taken such a choice so I must be town!' ) Feels a bit like adalia's assertation Yesterday, that he would be such a bad scum player. Also, while it is a very impolite choice to kill the replacement, it's not the first time that something like this happens. In one of the games I ran, P1na was killed in a similar fashion without ever getting the chance to enter the game.

HSL calls adalia out on whether it is really all that surprising and gives several good reasons to eliminate JMich. Perhaps too good reasons? Also possible. But out of these two, adalia still feels scummier. Especially since JMich actually is a dangerous replacement and everyone here (apart from gogtrial, perhaps) knows it, so HSL's arguments make sense, even if he isn't scum and doesn't actually know their reasoning. Another drop is, that adalia says that he doubted Hunter's scumminess - but didn't act on those doubts. On the contrary, he was part of the lynch wagon.

But I do agree that RWare deserves quite some serious scrutiny. Even if he accuses adalia of shade throwing. Especially the way how he pushed Hunter while staying clear of his wagon until the last moment. Until the moment where he could cite time pressure as the deciding factor.

drealmer is unhelpful, as always. And agressive, as always. So nothing new here. Might be aggressive scum hiding behind 'being drealmer': Might be aggressive town who isn't interested in team-play and wants to solo the game. Not decidable at the moment.

back to adalia:
So, you thought Hunter town, but didn't say anything just to save your own hide? You didn't want to seem scummy and therefore decided not to try to prevent a mis-lynch? That seems very scummy, wouldn't you agree?

Only that RWare could actually be scum with you, which from how things look at the moment doesn't seem all too unlikely. So you certifying his chances of being scum small doesn't mean all that much to others and using the matrix to 'clear' another player rather feels off.

trent ... I can't really read. He plays weaker than I am used of him. I would expect a town trent to be more active - but also a scum trent. A scum trent 'should' attempt to steer others more. So I am putting him as my null line for now.

So, likeliest scum team would be adalia+RW at the moment. But on an individual scale I suspect adalia the most, at the moment (could also be coupled to others that RW). But I want to read more from RW too. And drealmer, as always, seems scummy to me. trent, as I said, is neutral for now and, barring some big reveals or slips, I don't see myself voting gogtrial or HSL today.

Well, you did switch to Hunter65536 in a similar fashion [emphasis added] so there's that.


I don't quite see what in particular about the reasons I gave makes me scum. You are the only one trying, ever so subtly, to make something out of this...

But since you tried to go that route, the only virgin among us is gogtrial34987; having played as scum allows one to use that experience as town to try and look at things from their perspective. And vice versa, of course. To insinuate that town can't possibly do, or try to do, this, so there could/must be something fishy about it, is a bit hypocritical, imo, and trying a tad too hard to appear townie.


Exactly what about RWarehall's posts Today makes you think that he'll be back any time soon to post more?

If you think that either of adaliabooks and RWarehall are good candidates to flip scum, there are a couple of advantages in going for the latter over the former.


Putting the aggressiveness aside for a moment - if I read something he posted correctly, he's not really all that unhelpful.

always? really? ugh, no! seriously wtf, man? I get aggro at times, sure, but, I'm often just stating reads with analysis and making pushes if I feel the urge to, and generally playing mafia.

I don't mean to be aggressive, if I get aggro I think it should be understandable as to why I think it happens (misunderstood/misrepped, etc.) and no one tends to listen to me/follow my guide on my reads, like, ever (even when I'm being completely calm and making sense, imo), and I tend to have some pretty good reads, pretty often actually.

anyway, I am more inclined to RW than adalia simply because I think it is possible that adalia is completely lost/wrong(happens pretty often), whereas RW's play is more suspiciously bad (meaning it is more scumdicative to me for RW's play to be not adding up than adalia's)

I didn't have any references, so had to go back. Found a whole lot of posts where he was defending Gamma (#115, #141, #150, #159, #186, #188, #195), followed by a bunch where people were pointing out the combination (#194, #198, #211, #232), followed by no more defense of gamma by adalia.

However, whatever it was that originally left the "obv-scum-hunting" impression in my mind has eluded me on this reread. The closest I could find would be #313 - but other than that, most of adalia's posts were responding to things directly addressed to him. Maybe I read the various thoughts on Trent as scum-hunting the first time?

@all Anyone else willing to come out saying that this NK was the expected one?

I waited, because I was fully expecting him to show up, and didn't want to give my thoughts away for him to latch on to. (I'd also had an extremely full evening the day before, which didn't help.)

My strong town read (with asterisk) happened earlier in the day, well before the episode with RW. His subsequent lack of showing catapulted him to the top of the scum read. But that was unanalyzed; operating on emotion, conflicting with that earlier read the more I thought about it.

Was that really not clear from what I wrote the first time?

FWIW, a lot of my asking is to establish baselines for later on in the game, assuming I'll be there for it. That's one lesson I learned from Smurfia. (Darko was reading Trent as town, but I never asked why, and then the next day had to decide for myself if I read him the same - and chose wrongly.)

If I reach conclusions, I'll certainly share them, and argue for who we have to lynch. But for the moment, I just don't know yet. (I actually had a strong suspicion for a large part of my reread, but that dwindled too much by the end of the day, so now I'm back to watching it. If it doesn't change one way or the other, I'll definitely lay it out as a thought to ponder - at least 48 hours before day's end.)

I accidentally edited out the following bit from my post above when merging responses. *twiddles thumbs for 10 minutes*
Noted.
Do, however, also note that I was reacting to things happening right then (lift switching wagons). Up to that point hunter and gamma seemed to have equal chances of being lynched, and I was kinda expecting that I would have to be the deciding factor. (But yes, I should've made up my mind much earlier, instead of fruitlessly waiting for hunter and/or gamma to still show up to make their case.)

I guess I got the wrong impression about you? I mean with the various comments you made about trentonlf, and briefly about JMich, not saying much, and playing too close to the chest, or your comments about how others only react when directly addressed (like adaliabooks, Hunter65536 or RWarehall), you sounded like you don't yourself play in a similar fashion. But from what I've seen, your questioning aside, you also mostly just react when others address you directly.

As for the arguments part - what you are talking about is making a case for a lynch, and that is not what I'm referring to. Interacting and arguing with others is not necessarily tied to having decided who to lynch; quite the opposite, it's utilising the interactions and arguments to get there. Or do you think that all the rest of us arguing among us are already at that point?
Asking questions to establish baselines and watching it is fine, but, as I said, you gave me the impression I could/should expect more from you.

So, I'm a bit conflicted if you are indeed one of the "few words" players until it's lynch time, or if you are insecure/afraid of saying something that you might have to defend or take back if/when questioned by others. And if the latter, is it as town or as scum?

Of course we can use it to clear people. It's the balance of probabilities.
Take a normal game. We get claims, someone claims Cop, someone else claims Doctor. We can judge from the timing of those claims (and various other factors) whether we believe they are genuine or not.
And you can usually tell that the person claiming Coroner (ahem) or PGO (heh) is lying and is really scum.
You don't know for sure the cop is a cop, and can't really know until you lynch them or they are NK'd, but you can say whether it is likely they are what they say they are and analyse their interactions from that point.

In the same vein, I don't know you are town. I don't know Lift is town, but I am comfortable assuming that based on the evidence (not least because the pool of possible buddies for you both is quite small, you more so than Lift).

So if I knock me, you and Lift off the Matrix it leaves a very obvious pool of candidates, who can all be paired together (barring RWarehall who could only be scum with gogtrial in that case).
And it's not the least bit curious that two of them also happen to be the two players who claim to have absolutely no town reads (ok, trent town reads you, but you said yourself that even scum town read town players) and think the matrix is a waste of time.
Ok, it may not be trent and drealmer, it could be gogtrial and one of them or even gogtrial and RWarehall. But if we lynch drealmer today I'm fairly sure we'll hit scum. If not then the pool is narrowed considerably and it will be almost impossible not to hit scum tomorrow.


I'm not even going to attempt to reply in line to your other post so I'll just put my answers in order here:

Probably not. But on weighing the options killing JMich and removing the question mark over him seems a fairly poor choice in comparison to removing someone fairly townie.

No, I mean because of that. We (actually, not me as I was all over RWarehall as scum in #45 if I remember rightly, and wasn't in the other game) have been fooled by that too many times to not at least pressure JMich for it today causing enough distraction that we might mislynch him or someone else.

I seem to remember that too, I might even have been scum in that game. I definitely remember NKing a person seeking replacement to save the mod having to find one in one game (can't remember which, I believe flub was scum with me). But just because it's happened before doesn't mean it's a good move.

Yeah, I changed my mind once I saw the matrix. If you and Lift are town one of you is probably dead anyway, I don't think scum need me pointing out you're the towniest players to figure that out. But the benefit of being able to remove you both from the matrix is more than worth the risk.

Fair enough, there are two scum. So if that is the case, who benefits from JMich being killed? We all (bar drealmer) held Gamma (and yes, it was still Gamma then) in varying levels of suspicion day 1 so I don't see who it could benefit or incriminate overly much to have him end up dead and flipped town.

Just like a smart town player would too.

drealmer's general play always comes off as very defensive to me. He attacks anyone who attacks him, and anyone who aligns with his theories or supports him is instantly town (game #45 is a case in point). He frequently supports No Lynch or considers it a viable option if he doesn't have a target he firmly believes is scum.
So his 'You're all scummy, lets kill anyone' attitude just doesn't seem to fit. Unless he doesn't care who we kill because he's scum.


I'll come back to Lift's post in a minute, this one is long enough as it is.

I might have too... except for his last minutes posts. Which makes me wonder were they intentional to make him seem scummy enough not to get NK'd... it's a bit of a long shot but you yourself know it's not great for scum (or neutrals) to seem too townie as it gets suspicious when they don't die.

I did doubt Hunter's scuminess, but if you reread my post you'll release the point at which I doubted it was after RWarehall hammered. A bit too late to actually save him. I've already got enough of you misreading me without me turning around after the lynch was achieved and going "I think we were wrong!".

I do see that from the outside me and RWarehall would appear to be a viable scum team, I can only say that I am not a part of that team.
I will happily lynch RWarehall today, but I don't believe it's an optimum play. If he does flip scum (and I imagine I would probably be next if he does, I have no problem with that as we will still be in a good place to win) we have the game in the bag pretty much as gogtrial practically has to be his partner unless him and drealmer are really going for the distancing.
But if he flips town then tomorrow's lynch is going to be far harder as anyone of trent, drealmer, gogtrial (and me for the rest of you) could be scum.

I think you're making a big mistake with trent and he needs to be very carefully watched. Still pretty sure the scum team is him and drealmer.

What happened to the things that concerned you about me, and didn't want to tell me D1?

Could you lay out for me what it is about Lifthrasil that makes him one of the "towniest" players?


Let's look at each point of your argument:

1. He attacks anyone who attacks him - I'd have to say "check" for this game too; he had this.
2. Anyone who aligns with his theories or supports him is instantly town - also "check", we just didn't have anyone that fits.
3. He frequently supports No Lynch or considers it a viable option if he doesn't have a target he firmly believes is scum - and again "check"; he had at least 4 people he wanted to lynch D1, so had no reason to argue about No-Lynch, really.

So, combine 1, 2 and 3. Where do they lead you to? To "You're all scummy" perhaps? And if so, what's the next step from there? "Let's kill anyone of you" perhaps?

Agreed, it's impossible that he's the only townie in the game, and lynching people until we hit scum is not a viable way to solve the game. He could be scum, of course, yet I can understand his distrust, as frankly, right now I don't particularly trust any of you either.

Exactly what was a weak and double standard argument? I admit I am not having a stellar game and felt that no one else really was ether besides you, what is double standard about that? How else should I say that I know I'm town and I have a strong feeling you are town, but everyone else is possible scum at this point to me?

@ RW, I hope you continue to participate, if you are town being laser focused on one person is not going to help us. I agree that drealmer's attitude leaves a lot to be desired and he makes me wish I had a day vig ability to use on him, but he is not the only person playing who's acting scummy. What are your thoughts on gogtrial? adalia? me?

@ gogtrial, Who do you suspect is scum and why?

I let it go, it was actually the way you laid out how choosing scum worked. But having mulled over it I quickly realised it was indeed the most logical way for it to work and wasn't the result of you having inside info on how scum had been chosen. I hadn't really given it any thought but my initial impression would be that pairs would be chosen (minus the ones that weren't allowed) but thinking about it that would be very unwieldy to do and I think the chances of any pair appearing might be the same no matter which way you do it (though I'd have to check that to be sure).

Just general feel of his posts. He posted a lot and was engaged, I know he tunnelled a bit on drealmer and a lot of his content revolved around that, but he also recognised that. He's posted about and to most players (as far as I can see with a cursory reread anyway). He is rereading and appears invested in solving the game. All behaviour I expect from town. If he's scum he has me completely fooled.

I will have to agree to disagree with you there. Yes, there are elements of his normal play style, but he is far less engaged and far more.. loose (not sure that's quite the word I'm looking for but it will do) in his play.

Funnily enough this is exactly what happened to me when you asked me about Gamma earlier, upon reread I couldn't spot whatever it was that had stood out to me as a definite town tell.