I can kind of see where you're coming from, but including trent (who revealed first and couldn't have claimed a duplicate) and Hunter who revealed second kind of makes that pointless.
And if me and Gamma are two scum why would we choose to make things easier (even if only a little) when it was obvious we could get away with claiming duplicates since everyone else already had.

I doubt it can be worked out as a purely mathematical consideration as there is a considerable amount of bias involved (three people choosing you and Hunter should show that).

I ran a quick simulator and the average duplicates from random chance is about 4 (slightly less). This doesn't take into account that there was a strong tendency for people to take the same players they are suspicious of. 6 duplicates came up often enough, so 6 "might" be reasonable. But it is far enough over the average of 4 that I'm not sure my idea that scum might lie to avoid dups seems a reasonable hypothesis.

What sort of test did you run? Just curious given how I took an advanced stats class last term and I feel that data here is too little in volume for any tests I've learned to give good results.

Does this explanation ring true to any native English speakers? I find it a stretch, based on my understanding of the meaning of "slippery slope", but as the thinking in the rest of the response seems genuine to me, that puts it into an odd juxtaposition, and I'm willing to accept that this really could be what was meant...

As Gamma also pointed out, not revealing until D2 would've lost us the knowledge of up to four pairs.
Did you not consider that, or do you really feel D2 reveals would've been more beneficial despite that? (If so, I'd really like to understand your reasoning for that, so please do say a bit more on this subject.)

This part I fully believe.
But y'know, drealmer, no one has claimed anything else. I'd accuse you of putting up a strawman, except I think that you genuinely seem to be under the impression that there's people around who're trying to go the puzzle-solving route, and that they need to be convinced otherwise. Pretty much everyone here has been expressing that of course we still have to scum hunt. Actually... *checks* Yeah, 7 out of 9 players have said to relatively explicitly. (The two exceptions - on a quick scan - were adalia and Lift.)

What is it this game with people not responding to direct questions?
RW: I'd also like you to respond to this (specifically why it would be a "waste"), as I remember being pinged by this, too.

Is this an actual ping? Something about adalia is bothering me a bit (feels kinda... floaty, maybe?) - but I haven't been able to put my finger on anything definite, and the one time I've seen adalia play in 1 night wasn't really a good comparison.


Since I looked at the matrix, and at risk of being seen as puzzle-solving: Anyone mathy in the audience? Based on picks, adalia has the highest chance of having been assigned scum, while trent has the lowest. In a base game, each one of us would have a chance of 22.2% (or is that 23.6%??) of being assigned scum. What's the range with picks added to the mix? I have the feeling it'll be pretty insignificant, like -2% for trent to +2% for adalia, but would be interested in what the actual percentages work out to.

I ran a random simulator. Shortcutted the mechanics a bit. There are 36 combinations. So I did 18 rand (36)'s, loaded them into individual arrays and counted the number of array entries over 1. Ran the simulation 10,000 times.

Sometimes running a simulator is the best course for statistics. The sports modeling sites take a similar approach since as the equations become more complex, a precise answer may turn out to be impossible to calculate.

@gogtrial I've already answered this. At the time I thought it would be a waste because I expected Drealmer to gather suspicion and get lynched early, probably as town. I felt the real value of the picks would come toward endgame and picking someone more likely to get lynched day 1 out of habit seemed to be a wasted pick to me.

It's nothing more than that.

As to percentages, there are 36 combinations 8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1 = 36. Each person has 8 combinations before picks, meaning 8 out of 36 or 22.2222222222% chance of being scum.

After picks, there are 24 combinations left:
Adalia (with 7 combinations) = 29.166666666667%
Drealmer, Gamma, Lift (with 6) = 25%
GoGTrial, RWarehall, Hyper (with 5) = 20.8333333333%
Trent and Hunter (with 4) = 16.666666666667%

But, all that said, as pointed out elsewhere, finding scum with fewer pairings, means fewer confirmed town as well (only 1 in Adalia's case). So, I wouldn't worry about percentages much, as proper scum-hunting.

You first gave your safety/precaution warning in post #10, that now reads "2 days ago". I tried to engage you to get the discussion on your point of view going, but you came back a few hours later with post #20, where all you said was how tiresome this is and blah blah blah, and that you'd address more specifically later.
You next came back the next day with post #49 with a "whatevers", again not explaining why you'd prefer a different course, spending most of it talking about Bond films and your favourite henchman, and devoting a single line to letting us know that content would come later. Probably. Maybe.
When that "later" finally came, I see you act like the old wise man that the foolish. inexperienced kids never listen to, and going on about how the cat's out of the bag, and how what's done can't be undone.

I frankly don't get it. I'm not even going to ask you why, if you thought it so important, you didn't engage others sooner to show them your point of view. But I wonder if you expected people to sit around all that time waiting for you to give your reasons and arguments for a different course when you felt like doing it. Especially when your posts until then didn't convey that you felt strongly about this.

People spoke their minds. Majority was in favour of revealing early and in full. And the game continued, of course.


I'm confused, Your earlier statements sounded like you wanted to wait because that could/would serve town better/best. Now it sounds like you wanted to wait because it'd be fun to play a bit first.


Business as usual then, eh?


No drealmer7, I don't want to deduce or assume what you don't illuminate by what you do, I want you on record stating what you mean. I have absolutely no desire to leave room for any "but this is not what I meant, you misunderstand/misrepresent/mis-whatever me".


Why do you assume that I missed them? My post clearly shows that I, not only had considered them, but also how I think is the (only?) way to deal with them. Should I say that it feels like you were looking for an opportunity to say I made a "faked forced post"?


It's something I wouldn't put past RWarehall, if he's scum and you are town. Reason I made that comment is to see his reaction.

And putting everything else RWarehall aside, though you didn't address this to me: that would be true if there were no sharing of picks and everyone of us were privy only of their own. So long as somebody picked you (the more the better, of course), that info, and by extension the pool of your potential scumpartners, is at the disposal of all of us.


I understand. You may, however, want to consider that not all of us keep detailed records of what we did in previous games.


Nice taking things out of context.

I am talking to adaliabooks in that post, and that last line you chose to quote is still addressed to him; I didn't quote Lifthrasil, nor did I put a "@Lifthrasil" there, did I now?
The first line you quoted is in continuation of what I was saying to adaliabooks right above that line, but you (conveniently?) chose to leave that out, namely: as I saw hie RVS vote on you while I was typing that bit.

You seem to desperately want me to be scum; I'm sorry to tell you that, if you're town, you're once again misguided.
If, however, you are scum, keep trying, and you might get me mislynched.

Ah, true, you did. I only checked forward from Drealmer's question, not backward. (The bit I wanted to know was in post #50; which drealmer actually responded to as well, in the same "catchup" post, but I guess he didn't go back to edit his earlier responses.)

FWIW, on first read I didn't see that line as a continuation of what you were saying to adalia either. Makes perfect sense, now, with your explanation. It wasn't exactly pinging me, as I wrote it off as probable shared history I wasn't aware of, but I'm at least rather glad you did clarify that.

Nah, not too likely. To me at least drealmer looks scummier than you. But here's the problem: drealmer always looks scummy. gogtrial and you made a nice summary of all the scummy things drealmer did. Being against stating ones picks. Misinterpreting and misattributing posts. Focusing on *making* one or two players scum rather than actually *finding* scum.

...all true and in every other player these would be quite solid scum reads. But here's my problem: in the last game drealmer was playing quite as scummy - and he was town. He actually managed, over the course of several games, to consistently play SO scummy as town, that scum-reads don't mean much in his case. Does this help town? No. But it could help him tremendously if he actually is scum.

Sorry. Rant. Short version: while I do agree that drealmer behaves scummy and not very helpful, I also see the possibility that one scum tries to prep him as the first mis-lynch. And who better to prep than the one player that always looks scummy? So it means that either you or gogtrial might be scum just as well.

Oh and RWare: I wouldn't put too much faith into these percentages either. The difference between 16,7% and 29,1% just isn't big enough to bet any game on. As I said before: the parinigs will get their use once we get the first scum.

I knew Hyper was referring to me with that line, and to be honest it should have been fairly obvious.
1) I'd already referred to the point he was making earlier, so anyone actually following the game and reading the posts should have been able to make the connection to me saying I was unlikely to be picked because I suck as scum.
2) Less relevant for you as you're relatively new, but everyone knows I suck as scum. In fact I think it's safe to say my scum record is the worst in Gog mafia history.

So drealmer does look like he's trying to hard really...

But as Lift says... drealmer always does that. So while I would say he is my top scum pick, I don't really trust that read.

Bah. We've almost reached 100 posts and no one has even placed a proper vote yet (in fact I'm fairly sure Lift's vote is the only vote all game)

This just won't do...

My gut says drealmer is genuinely scum this time.

Vote drealmer7

I'm a person that doesn't get angry easily, and a forum game is not something that can, or that I'd allow to, get me angry. The use of sarcasm is something I occasionally do, but it has nothing to do with releasing anger; stick around and you'll see it.

Regarding the subject of questions, gogtrial34987 expressed my own point of view in their post #86 very well. You come across like you're avoiding to respond, and the reasons you give for skipping questions are not exactly helping put you in the town-camp.

Having everyone on record on why they say and do things is something I go for, as town can make use of in the course of the game. So in a sense, it is a safety net for town.

You seem more interested in game theory than playing the game at hand. Or so you want us to believe. Even if you have a strong interest in game theory, if you're town, playing with town's best interest in mind should not come second.



Did you just openly admit that you'd at least try to pull off something like this as scum? Brings me back to what I said earlier - what if this is the game where you pull off your best scum-game, having lulled us all with your previous not so stellar scum-plays.


I know I'm town, and without a game mechanic in place that can change one's alignment, I'm going to remain town until the very end. You, of course, can't be sure right now, so please do. Just don't forget to watch everyone else as well. Just like we all should do at this point in the game.



When I was typing that part of my post #47, I had initially written something along the lines of *looks around, wonders if LIfthrasil will grace us with his presence before the weekend's out" (as he hadn't posted at all till that point), but after a refresh of the thread, I saw he had just posted, and had put an RVS vote on drealmer7, so changed it to what I posted.

My post #47 to adaliabooks was in reply to his post #44, which was a reply to my post #42 in reply to his post #41, around his "not exactly stellar scum-game", something that led to people not including him in their picks. Hence my last line in post #47.

I can accept that it might not had been as clear to others as to me, but drealmer7 didn't ask for clarification; he's too busy collecting "ecvidence" of my scumminess.

*refreshes thread*

Or what adaliabooks said.



This is a recurring issue with drealmer7. He tunnels hard on one or two players he feels are scummy, then goes and reads what said players post to fit his view of them. From what I recall, he has never ever town-read me or something I said, not a single time. I'm also inclined to think that he's not very aware of doing this, hence the difficulty to change it. I was pleasantly surprised when he first decided to let go of trentonlf, and hoped that this game things would be different between us than in previous games, but apparently he's not there yet with me.


I can only speak for myself. While true, I'm not prepping him for anything. All I want him is to see that, if he's town, he's once again doing scum's work. I say if he's town, because of what you said here:


[emphasis added]

That's what concerns me the most.

Yeah... cause that's really filling me with confidence in your townieness.

Do you know who often makes excuses for not reading the thread and says they're playing games instead?
Scum.

Krypsyn used to do it quite a bit. I'm fairly sure I've done it at least once. Vitek comes to mind too, though I can't actually recall playing a game where he was scum so I may have that wrong.

I think we should just kill you now to get it out of the way, right now there's a fairly high chance you are actually scum, and if not at least we all won't spend the next three (in game) days wondering whether to lynch you or not.

So, who else is interested in a drealmer lynch?

actually the chance I'm scum is 0%

and yes, I'm playing PS:T and I just came back to make a post in the subforum

thanks for calling me liar so graciously though

I didn't say you weren't playing games, just that it's a fairly common excuse for scum.

Where's dedo when you need him... ;)

I'm not sure I've done anything particularly scummy though? Other than pointing out that I'm statistically the most likely to be scum I suppose... but that was before I even knew that was actually the case and I don't think it's particularly scummy.
In fact I couldn't really argue against lynching me on that basis as it makes sound logical sense.

Are you trying to suggest I've purposely thrown every game I've played as scum so far to make it all the more surprising when I do finally play well? :P
(that's a rhetorical question, I know you're not really suggesting that)