Crazy plan

No lynch today
Hopefully town has a watcher or a doctor. Flub investigates who he feels is scummiest. If we have a watcher (don't speak up if you are) they can watch flub or a doctor (again don't speak up) can protect flub (score if we have both).

This plan only works if we have a doctor or a watcher, but if it works flub can clear another townie or nail a scum and we don't take a chance of losing anyone else today.

Now if flub is scum pulling a fast one on us by clearing his buddies we are screwed, but I believe flub is telling the truth as it would be a very odd move to claim cop this early if you were not one.

I guess we need to wait on Dess and dedo to see if they have any more info too.

Thoughts?

I agree that we should wait until everyone has checked in. I revisited flubb's posts. When everyone has checked in, I will share my thoughts on it. The reread doesn't take long - give it a go.

Nice to see I have been cleared. Interesting to know that I made enough noise to be checked. Overall, this claim regarding me is right and also explains, why flubbucket was inclined to believe me to be town Yesterday. And it explains why flubbucket was so quite Day 2. I am inclined to believe flubbucket is indeed a good guy.


Regarding Lifthrasil's flip, it was a shame he turned out to be town. It seems that his real life intervened with his ability to play the game. And since many of us suspected or had doubts about Lifthrasil for a long time already, he could have indeed helped himself if he informed us about RL sooner. Hard to change one's mind at the last minute.

And don't get me wrong, but the flavor regarding potatoes was hilarious.


Sad that bler was night killed. He is indeed smart and I was often looking at his insights for valuable opinion. Hoping he was town. And if he plays same way as a mafia goon, then God, help us. Also, since he flipped town, we should re-read his posts. He thought cristigale to be scum I think. Or at least suspicious.


I have nothing, only opinion.


Sounds like a good plan to ponder. Overall we have 9 players now. No one else besides bler died tonight, so we can assume only scum are left. How many scum? With 13 players, 1 being SK, I think 3-2. Lets assume worse case scenario - 3 scum. That leaves 6 Townies for now.

- First idea - for this plan to work better, we all should ponder for ourselves and then each share our three highest suspects. Not one, but three. So that flubbucket would have a better idea of who to check. Mine would be CSPVG, cristigale and dedoporno. But I should re-read something HSL pondered and maybe I will change one of my suspects.

- Another idea - many of you are better in knowing how forum Mafia setup works. How possible is it that Mafia has a roleblocker? Because if they do, they can block flub and we will learn nothing.

- Third idea - as we statistically pondered in game #35 or #36, no lynch would give us a higher chance to lynch scum tomorrow. What about a mislynch?

Ok, (assuming) 6 town, 3 scum. We mislynch a townie today, that leaves us with 4 town and 3 scum Day 4. A mislynch would then mean town loses game. Another no-lynch would mean town loses game.

If we vote no-lynch Today, then we have 5 town and 3 scum on Day 4. A mislynch then - town loses. Another no-lynch would mean we can see Day 5. On Day 5 we would have 4 Town and 3 scum. Maybe with flub alive would have a confirmed scum. Chance to lynch scum then is at the peak. As in, highest.

My third idea would be in favor of no-lynch. But only after a discussion of who might be scum.

We're back. I need to go out but will be back in couple of hours and some contribution.

@bler, good job taking the bullet if that was what you were intending to do. I was almost certain you were a power-role, I guess I wasn't the only one.


No. Not anymore.


This should be correct.


We should have one more mislynch before My-Lo.


The single NK on N1 could mean 4 reasonable things (maybe more but I can think of only 4 immediately):

1. We have a Doctor who protected Krypsyn's target.
2. Krypsyn was unable to NK on N1.
3. There is a Town role-blocker who blocked him.
4. There is a scum role-blocker who blocked him.

These aren't exclusive to each other, we may have more than one of them in place but let's assume it's just one for the sake of simplicity.

This would mean that we have 50% chance of losing the Cop tonight. There is some chance a Town role-blocker prevents the kill but I'm looking at the worst case in which they don't.

Initially I thought that the Doctor might clear one more Townie so it's a good idea to come out now but then I realized that they blocked a SK NK which may have very well been a scum flip so a claim right now is out of the question.


I think I have to go back and revisit some stuff but I may be in favor of no-lynching. Or if we lynch I'd go for CSPVG, cristi and then Leonard/HSL/Trent. I didn't like CSPVG's quick-hammer. I want to re-read his and cristi's stuff.



On an unrelated note is GOG unusually slow for someone else as well today?

If scum has a role blocker why would they block Krypsyn and NK him?

@Dessimu A role blocker for scum is possible, but no one has said anything yet about being blocked. It's possible someone would not know if they were blocked (depends on the mod). So far we've had 4 deaths, 3 vanilla townies and a SK. With a SK on hand and mafia being able to kill at night there's probably going to be at least a doctor or bodyguard for town to go with the cop. I would also not be surprised if there was a watcher or a tracker too. If we have 3 scum left they probably have 1 to 2 roles and it's a good chance one is a role blocker as that would fit the setup. I wouldn't discount a strongman for the mafia either (probably with limited shots).

This is pure speculation on my part, just basing it off of a known SK and possible Cop revealed so far.

Oh... Trent just went up a few notches on the list for indirect role-fishing. I totally neglected the encouraging of the sharing failed attacks. CSPVG, cristi or trent and then others.


I believe Dessimu and Flub should have first-hand information regarding that.

How was I role fishing? I keep telling people not to claim, there's no reason to give scum targets. Why would flub or Dessimu have first-hand information regarding Krypsyn? If flub is a cop he has investigated Hunter and Dessimu for his night actions. Dessimu has not said anything or hinted at knowing anything about Krypsyn. Is there something I'm missing?

Dedoporno probably had in mind game #35, where me, flub and Bookwyrm were mafia. We tried to kill Krypsyn N1. He was protected. Then we tried to kill Krypsyn again, N2. Bookwyrm was a roleblocker and somehow we decided to both kill Krypsyn and to roleblock him (as in, if he had a role, he couldn't use and would be less of a threat to us if he survived).

Understood?

Good. No more talk about previous games.

@dedoporno - trentonlf is role-speculating like I did and like you did. Not fishing.

What concerns the role-talking, I think it is more confusing than helpful. Long story short - seems like no one else has any info like flubbucket has, so everyone can keep silent about their roles if they have one. For any possible town role - try to make the best out of it.

Important general questions are two:
1. Who is in favor of no-lynch? Whether in favor or not - why?
2. Who are your three highest scum suspects? Would be nice to see at least a sentence of explanation on why.

I should also mention (on my behalf) that if I see someone too suspicious, I will vote him/her instead of no-lynch.

You asked people to share failed attempts on their life when a Doctor presence was assumed. I believe scum would have been quite interested why there wasn't another NK so someone sharing that they were attacked but survived would basically confirm there is a Doctor or something of the sorts and such a role is a high priority target.


They did exactly that 2 games ago.

I never asked anyone to share a failed attempt on their life. I asked anyone to share pertinent information, like flub did.

You might want to reconsider that statement.

If someone claimed to have survived an attack, it would only confirm that Town has another protective role. While in reality, we have a dead SK and we already assume we have some protective role. Combined with what setup would make sense. So... Claim or no claim, the important question is only who is who. And we agree to keep that a secret.

I was answering HypersomniacLive's question, what do I need to reconsider?