I don’t see Hyper’s comments to Hunter about the flavor as serious.

I don’t agree with Lift’s third point (the all-men stuff). But I don’t discount the other reasons Lift has provided for his vote. The first two reasons don’t make me overly suspicious of Hunter but they are valid reasons.

From what I can see, you are the only one who is drawing attention to the “hunting serial killers instead of Mafia”. Lift is using Hunter’s comments about all-men as part of his vote, but I don’t see how that translates to a focus on serial killers or even why that would be so bad. We need to eliminate ALL threats to town. Serial killers are definitely a threat to town. As long as serial killers are not working together, they are not as big of a collective threat as mafia (due to numbers in a normal game) but they are still a threat. Given the setup, I doubt there is more than one Serial Killer, but we don’t know that for certain. If there are several serial killers, our focus should be on them, that would likely mean very few mafia. (For the record, I've been assuming we have a fairly normal game with 2-3 mafia and a lone serial killer).

Your reply to my initial suspicion made a lot of sense. Your play since then (posts #306 and on) feels like you are trying too hard to make a case against players.

Krypsyn was a neutral serial killer. If you believe Hyper is scum, unless you think there are multiple serial killers working together, how would Hyper know that Krypsyn is a serial killer? And if we have multiple serial killers, why wouldn’t we want to focus on them?

Again, it just feels like your trying too hard. Perhaps that is overzealous town, but it feels like scum.

Vote Dessimu

Do you how multiple serial killers working together are called? Mafia!

Just curious, what do you think is the distribution of town, mafia and neutral in this game? If there was more than 1 SK and 2/3 mafia don't you think there would be more kills N1? (Than just a puddle of blood and 1 dead SK)

Looks like I can get connectivity in some places on the way so I will be checking in from time to time.

Me personally I think it's a standard game of Mafia. I think we have 2 or 3 scum and 1 or 2 neutral. If this is some sort of crazy game with multiple serial killers then it would not be more than 2 and one of them killed the other one last night, but I find that a stretch. Unless something is presented to change things I think continual talk of multiple serial killers is a distraction and we need to be focusing on finding scum.

Something still feels off about Leonard to me, he stays in the background not attracting much attention like he's hiding in plain sight. Either he's adopted CSPVG's playstyle of lurking or he's hoping to not be noticed.

My next top suspect was agent, but Bler has alleviated much of the concern I had about him and I have him leaning as town now.

The second wagon that formed yesterday on flub I think is where at least one or more scum had their vote. The wagon on flub was based more on role playing more than anything and a weak reason of "he's doing more scum hunting than normal".

Dessimu and Lift are at odds with each other and I don't see both of them being scum, but I think one of them probably is. The part I find most suspect is Lift leaving his vote on flub all day when it was an RVS vote and flub's wagon started moving with a chance for flub to be lynched.

Unvote Leonard03
Vote Lifthrasil

Can we get a vote count please

You may

Leonard03 has 1 vote, Hunter65536
Hunter65536 has 2 votes, Lifthrasil, flubbucket
Lifthrasil has 3 votes, bler144, Dessimu, trentonlf
Dessimu has 1 vote cristigale

As always, blame any mistakes to my current dead state.

So you don't think there were any other scum on drealmer's wagon? Or that some were not voting? Or is that either (3 mafia, 1 neutral) or (2 mafia, 2 neutral), i.e. four "scum".

Doin' a little re-read.

What exactly do you mean by "non-vote". Just that she wasn't voting at all at the end of the day?

Interesting. It seems Hunter was not the first to talk about the possibilities of guys in the school. From looking at post 155 it seems the idea comes to him out of the blue. This is what I found suspicious.
However, later on HSL comments on it. And Hunter explains it was from a different post of drealmer's (of which there are many :P
Searching back post 113 fits the bill.
Everybody else probably knew this already, so hey, time for me to get with the times!

Fair enough. Question though, if it came down to deadline, would you hammer Lift rather than let it go to 'no lynch'? It's not a gotcha question as I'm quite openly a blasphemer on the no lynch issue, I'm just looking for clarity on your position.


You're at L-5, and worried that, 43 hours from deadline, there's going to be a sudden surge of votes to lynch you within a span of 13 hours? I don't know whether to read your concern as towny paranoia, or just adorable naivete.

Agreed. I don't have any quibble with dedo's arguments for Dess > Lift either as they are for the most part sound, whether or not I share them.

Just woke up and rolled into work trying to catch up (responses posted in reverse order to how I wrote them as I worked backwards up the list), but yes, that was the core point. She was on the wagon in that she stated a commitment to voting drealmer over going to no lynch, but never actually voted. If I recall she didn't vote for anyone after RVS (where's politifact when you need them?). In #188 she makes a very circumspect note on drealmer doing one thing she finds scummy, and makes a commitment to voting him if it comes to it to avoid a no lynch.

A perfectly fine town play, though also a very savvy D1 scum play. You don't show up in wagon analysis (often people analyze just the wagon, not the not-wagon) yet still make sure the townie gets lynched while looking ambivalent about the target. Look at Lift's first D2 action, for example - he examined those who actually voted Drealmer, not those who said they would but didn't, and he focused on who pushed hardest, not on those who sashayed in.

It leaves one with the desired result and very clean hands. Voila. It was really the post she got ZAAAPPeed for that caught my attention, however (she protesteth a bit too much?).

Now, bear in mind, part of why this draws my attention is my theory that there was only 1 mafia at most on the wagon, so I was looking pretty carefully at those off the wagon. If my theory is BS, then I'm likely grasping at straws. Though as HSL noted pre-game, one of my flaws is that I talk myself out of my own reads, so while I'm not pushing this one, I'm not letting go of it entirely either. She has my attention, though she's dropped down a bit with her recent posts.

There was at least one scum on drealmer's wagon (Krypsyn) and possibly other scum were not voting, but with 13 players I would think 4 scum at the most for balance reasons (5 would be stretching it) and the possibility of all the scum being on one wagon, especially day one, is not very likely.

"Balance" can be managed through a number of factors: numbers/roles/info/NK#/etc. However the numbers problem always remains because with relatively few exceptions the number of bodies on each side of the ledger is the predominant factor.

But yes, an SK flipping N1 was quite valuable for town. While we don't know why there was only 1 kill on N1, we can at least presume (Lift's game serving as a caution) that it likely wasn't designed to have only 1 NK per night over the course of the game. One doesn't need to know how gravity works to assume certain things about its behavior. Even with a reduced win% expectation (from ~50% to 30-40%) to offset that, not only does town need numbers, but it needs some combination of protection and info.

If town is weak, that would point to something like an 9-2-1-1 or 10-2-1 setup, but I find that quite unlikely. For me the money is on 9-3-1, or maaaybe an 8-3-1-(1) where the last is neutral non-scum.

I'll ramble on more about what I think the implication of that is before the day is out (I'm sure everyone is pumped for that) but for now I still want a bit more clarity on who likes/dislikes whom in terms of actual voting before I do anything too crazy.

There was one moment (his vote, I believe) where agent had me curious if he was scum just cleverly piggybacking on his performance from the prior-prior game, where he was equally distracted but played essentially the same as town vig. Seeing his PM confirmed (for me, not you obviously) that no, in fact he was quite legitimately playing the exact same town game.

Look back at his questions about yogs' vote template. Agent is a math guy, and the template is pretty damn self-explanatory. One can either assume it was all a big bluff to look like he was not paying attention (on an issue fairly irrelevant to who is/isn't scum), or that he was quite legitimately skimming at best.

[spoiler alert - he was skimming]

None of that absolutely rules out him having drawn a scum PM, but I wouldn't look to his play for clarity.

“Ooooooh, my head,” moaned the Dean and she regained consciousness. Struggling to stand back up, she steadied herself against the boardroom table. “What happened?”

“You had a major temper tantrum and passed out,” someone pointed out to her.

“Quite impossible. I never lose my cool.” She glared at her faculty. “Have you people made any progress? Any at all?”

Eleven arms all began pointing in wildly different directions.

“Fantastic,” nodded the Dean grimly. “By the way, Zappy here is lookin’ for a little action, and I’ll be putting him into play Today, as at least one of you is about to hit the “2 days ago” mark. I’ll give you twelve guesses who.”

__________________

VOTE COUNT

Lift (3) – bler, Dessimu, trent
Hunter (2) – Lift, flub
Leonard (1) – Hunter
Dessimu (1) - crist


Not voting: CSPVG, Leonard, HSL, dedo

Lift is closest to lynch at L-3

__________________

Deadline is in approximately 36 hours

But again, you know, you can vote earlier. Hell, it's 1936, you can vote early and often.

I gotta say, when he didn't figure out how the sheet worked I was... a little surprised.


Dang though. I'm trying to sit here and feel out who my spidy sense says is mafia, without getting anything. Rrrrrgh.

Somebody make a slip!

With the serial killers flip, I believe we have 2-3 scum, the dead serial killer and the rest are town. It's possible there is another third party, but I lean toward just the one. It's also possible we have something with a very different balance but I have not seen anything to support that yet.