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General discussionForum Mafia #32: Booze, Blood and Bullets: The Prohibition(1735 posts)(1735 posts)
(1735 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted December 01, 2015
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dedoporno: .....<snip>..........

I don't like flub's vote since it's basically HijacK's vote with HijacK's reason in one line. I have never been a fan of piggybacking.

.....<snip>..........
Would it be piggybacking if I had in fact mentioned it before in posts #1360 and 1364??

So what is it REALLY about my vote you don't like??
Posted December 01, 2015
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HijacK: So far assumptions have been taken that adalia was AT LEAST anti-town, but what if he was full blown scum and scumbuddy of trent? This scenario is just as likely as the one you have outlined, if not actually more likely.
You are correct it's a possibility, but I would argue it's so much more likely. I haven't considered that since I tend to believe adalia's claim. I don't see the benefit in sharing the multiple teams information with everyone. Also, why would Trent scramble his flip and effectively confirm Yog's warning about the bad flips instead of hammer and take credit for being on the wagon?
Posted December 02, 2015
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flubbucket: Would it be piggybacking if I had in fact mentioned it before in posts #1360 and 1364??

So what is it REALLY about my vote you don't like??
Not the actual vote but the reasoning:

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flubbucket: I think trentonlf changed adaliabooks flip. I have no idea of adaliabooks actual alignment, but I need to clear this.
HijacK already did the "I have a feeling and I can't sleep at night unless I check it right now". At least he backed his standing with decent analysis so I'm OK with it. You basically said "I think Trent is scum and have to lynch him because of the reason". Regardless of whether or not it's a good lynch the reasoning alone is not that good in itself.
Posted December 02, 2015
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dedoporno: You are correct it's a possibility, but I would argue it's so much more likely. I haven't considered that since I tend to believe adalia's claim. I don't see the benefit in sharing the multiple teams information with everyone. Also, why would Trent scramble his flip and effectively confirm Yog's warning about the bad flips instead of hammer and take credit for being on the wagon?
Those are questions that I do not know the answer for, but I can only speculate. It is a very common tactic for scum to bus their teammates if shit hits the fan. Much credit isn't really awarded for hitting scum, much less on the higher half of the vote positions. However, the benefit of fudging a flip when a claim is unverifiable is that it throws town into disarray. It makes us put questions to which we don't have an answer. And, just like you and I are debating right now on the possibilities of adalia's alignment, it screws up with town's perspective of the game. Do we know how many scum are there? We are pretty certain there are 2 teams. If so, how many on a team? Obviously since there are multiple scum factions the numbers won't resume to just 25% of 16. Was adalia one of the scum? How close are we to eliminating scum and winning if we don't even know we hit scum?
I can only assume that this is the same reason for which 2 of the flips were cleaned. What if either of HSL or JMich were scum? We don't know. We don't know at how many people we have to look at to win this. We don't know who else is scum, how many are remaining, what their agenda's are or anything of the sort. We are in disarray. For all we know we can have 2 or 3 scum left. Or maybe just one. Who knows? None of us. Not even scum. Because flips are fudged and interactions between players are hard to analyse in this case.
Tell me, have you analyzed adalia's interactions before his lynch? I don''t think so. And neither have I! You know why? Because unless we actually know his alignment and role we can't constitute anything from it. What if he was genuine and was just trying to complete his objective? What if he was a scumbuddy of trent and some of his interactions link him to more scum buddies?

If we're talking about possibilities and outcomes I am inherently against not lynching trent today. I feel extremely good about my analysis and whether Ix is scum or town, a fudged flip can lead us to even less info, more disarray, and we will be no closer to a resolution tot his game.
Posted December 02, 2015
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dedoporno: Not the actual vote but the reasoning:
So you read my posts and think they are non sequitur??
Posted December 02, 2015
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flubbucket: So you read my posts and think they are non sequitur??
I haven't said that. What I registered as piggybacking was the instantly verify your feeling about Trent by lynching him, which is pretty similar to the goal of HijacK's vote.
Posted December 02, 2015
By the way, does anyone (other than drealmer) think we are supposed and can potentially benefit from voting on the actual council vote? I discarded that initially as just flavor, but the way Lift insists that we have to do it sooner or later is starting to look like subtle guidance. I don't suggest to focus on that today but it's quite curious.



And I just remembered another thing.

@Ix, what happened to that warning you gave to Wyrm in case he backed of a wagon? I can't recall whose wagon was it, I just remember that kind of dissolved later on.

It seems I'm read again from the beginning on Thursday when the clients are gone. With the latest reveals something may become more visible.
Posted December 02, 2015
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bler144: Not sure what your implication is here. I've had you as suspicious since D1. If you'll recall my top 3 on D1 was P1na/Leonard/you, and on D2 was adalia/Leonard/you... ...

While I agree Trent is suspicious (fair to say he's my #2), you're way out in front in my opinion.
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Ixamyakxim: And yet you've bailed on all those (scum?) wagons except the Day One lynch of P1na.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say if we lynch trent and he's scum, you won't be on that one either.
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Lifthrasil: leonard 7: krypsyn, yogsloth, Ixamyakxim, dedoporno, cristigale, drealmer, HijacK
yogsloth 5: Bookwyrm, trentonlf, bler144, flubbucket, leonard
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Lifthrasil: trentonlf 4: Ixamyakxim, krypsyn, HijacK, flubbucket
Ixamyakxim 2: bler, trentonlf
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Bookwyrm627: Vote Ixam.
Dedo that's what I think right there. I'm a little thrown off because it seems like he and bler are playing at the same game and I'm still confused by it.

But as soon as yog went after trenton, that group has gone hard at first yog, now me. I'd wager there's multiple scum in there. We don't break that up now, we're in trouble. Because trenton was on adalia, I think we're best served taking him out first (flip ... er sorry - reveal influencer?). If he flips town vanilla come get me by all means because I'm way off.
Posted December 02, 2015
Not sure my brain is working right, but I'm going to try to contribute.

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cristigale: Does it seem unusual to anyone that this is this first time in this game (that I recall) that a mass claim has been mentioned? In past games, it seems like someone is calling for a mass claim early on. I’m generally against a mass claim, but I’m surprised no one has pushed for one yet.
Having been in that boat, I'll just say that the game I pushed for it,

a) we were in danger of falling behind early, and there were already two fully claimed roles on the table
b) I actually had info that I wasn't personally comfortable sharing without everyone coming to the table because my piece alone would do more harm than good.

Here it at least looks like we're ahead, or at least having success each day. Barring mod-kill or some day-kill action, we're limited to one per day. So as long as that keeps working, or there's something to indicate the game hangs in the balance, don't fix what ain't broken?

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Bookwyrm627: The night actions present a bit of a problem, however, especially Night 3. If Yog's team thinks Trent is lynchable (Yog mentioned a plan to go for Trent after Leonard was lynched), then I'd expect Yog to block Trent while Yog's buddies go kill someone else. Why waste a NK on scum you plan to lead town to lynch? I suppose Yog could have jailed someone else while one of his buddies tries to finish Trent, and Trent guns down Yog. How did Trent survive, then? Is there a chance that a NK just fails randomly? If Yog’s team truly believes Trent was scum, then I don’t see them completely ignoring him that night.
I'd been on the 10v3v3 scenario when I was first thinking about two teams, but I think your post actually might answer how 8v4v4 might fly. Particularly if teams are parallel beyond the jailer role (and yogs immediate jump on trent at least indicates that's possible) town doesn't have to be strong - they just have to stay out of the crossfire and let scum ID/push/NK each other because of the perceived greater existential threat.

Hard to say how balanced it would be overall since this game started with a scum flip, and we don't know why there's only 1 NK.


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Krypsyn: Yogsloth made a point about this, which, ironically, carries more weight for me because he was revealed as scum. If scum have the ability to mess with alignment and/or role reveals, they may not have all been on the same page on Day 1.
P1na has been a problem for me - not for his flip but where he fits. I had him aligned with Leonard-Trent in my first theorying about 10v3v3.

Don't forget in that same stretch of arguments (at least where I remember him saying the above), in 861 he noted that "Scum would not bus their own team." Which was an...unusual...argument from him.

Worth at least considering that they didn't flip P1na because they were on his wagon and could take the town cred from his flip. Bussing a teammate late game? Meh. Bussing a teammate D1? Looks quite a bit better.

I noted early D2 that P1na's flip made yogs look good. Maybe that was the point and the whole "disorganized" thing was B.S.

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Bookwyrm627: Lets put my money where my mouth is.

Vote Ixam.
Heh. I was about to unvote. Ah well. Since nothing's moving I'll let inertia be my guide.

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HijacK: a fudged flip
We keep calling them fudged flips, but the evidence so far suggests they're vanilla'ed.
Posted December 02, 2015
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Ixamyakxim: Dedo that's what I think right there. I'm a little thrown off because it seems like he and bler are playing at the same game and I'm still confused by it.

But as soon as yog went after trenton, that group has gone hard at first yog, now me. I'd wager there's multiple scum in there. We don't break that up now, we're in trouble. Because trenton was on adalia, I think we're best served taking him out first (flip ... er sorry - reveal influencer?). If he flips town vanilla come get me by all means because I'm way off.
Are you are proposing that Trent, Bler, and I are a scum team together? Multiple scum, so I guess one of us is town; which one? Presumably not Trent, since you are actively voting him, so either Bler or me. I can see why you are confused, since trying to fit the 3 of us on one team leaves me confused too.

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Bookwyrm627: <snip>
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bler144: I'd been on the 10v3v3 scenario when I was first thinking about two teams, but I think your post actually might answer how 8v4v4 might fly. Particularly if teams are parallel beyond the jailer role (and yogs immediate jump on trent at least indicates that's possible) town doesn't have to be strong - they just have to stay out of the crossfire and let scum ID/push/NK each other because of the perceived greater existential threat.
I actually considered suggesting a No Lynch today to make scum sort it out at night, but every time I considered mentioning it, I got this shivery feeling up and down my spine and my neck started feeling a bit tight. This is also when I noticed that "No Lynch" hadn't been suggested yet this game either (probably the lack of first timers), and I plan to leave it that way. *whistles tunelessly*
Posted December 02, 2015
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Bookwyrm627: Are you are proposing that Trent, Bler, and I are a scum team together? Multiple scum, so I guess one of us is town; which one? Presumably not Trent, since you are actively voting him, so either Bler or me. I can see why you are confused, since trying to fit the 3 of us on one team leaves me confused too.

I actually considered suggesting a No Lynch today to make scum sort it out at night, but every time I considered mentioning it, ...
Well, his post did give me some pause since I remember the last time you seemed to agree with me on things. But thinking it through, I think I just don't agree with him. Ix is focused on the fact that we were both on yogs (who flipped scum) and on Ix (whom we both had as leaning-scummy to scummy long before the yogs/Leonard divide he points at as seminal).

That's a pretty thin record. Beyond that, have we agreed on much? I think Ix sees us agreeing on Ix. So i tend to think it's 1 part OMGUS, and a 2nd part his obsession with yogs v. Leonard, whether because he's yogs' teammate or because he's town and thinks it actually holds the key to unlocking the game. IDK which.

If you try convincing me not to vote for the bulletproof berserker, however, perhaps I shall draw the line there.

It's not even worth analyzing why Trent is on him. Maybe Trent recognizes him as opposing scum, maybe Trent is town who thinks Ix is scummy, or maybe Trent just recognizes it's the only other possible wagon vs. his own. Even if Trent flips scum, I'm not sure we get much clarity there.

On the 'no lynch' I think it hasn't come up to this point because it's been a "target rich" environment. If anything when we've had problems it's deciding which of 2 good looking targets to hit first with only a few people not having strong interest in one and/or the other. I have two kneejerk reactions for using it today:
1) It still feels target rich, and both Ix and Trent look like good targets, at least to me.
2) Say Ix did actually slip when he mentioned 3 jailers. Whether he did or not, IDK, but what if it were 7 or (6/1) v3v3v3? That gives me some pause that we should coast.

If we were debating cristi vs. flub, then sure, I could see the no lynch/let scum work it out amongst themselves argument because the case for those two is relatively thin and mostly (if not entirely) lurk-based. Worth keeping in mind for another day, perhaps.

For me it's still Ix then Trent or Trent then Ix. I feel less strongly about the particular order now, however.

As a side note, IIRC it was HSL who noted that this has been a clever, engaging game. Have to agree with that. Other than the holidays, not really a lot of dead air, and still really hard to tell who's winning or how it will end.
Posted December 02, 2015
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bler144: It's not even worth analyzing why Trent is on him. Maybe Trent recognizes him as opposing scum, maybe Trent is town who thinks Ix is scummy, or maybe Trent just recognizes it's the only other possible wagon vs. his own. Even if Trent flips scum, I'm not sure we get much clarity there.
Finally able to post again.
Wanted to say first that I'm glad you are ok, and I hope this issue is one that does not ever bother you again.

I've already stated why I'm on Ix, I think he is scum. He slipped up trying to frame me and is pushing for me because he thinks I'm the easiest target.
Posted December 02, 2015
I was wondering what trent might have to say after all of the day's happenings. Ya know what my initial thought-response was to that last post he just made?

it was "heh" !

hah!

I'm conflicted, but, I'm more comfortable with trent than with Ix currently, ever so slightly. I also think if trent is who he says he is, krypsyn becomes more suspicious and possibly scum-buddy of Ix? Am I the only one reading it that way? Definitely worth re-evaluating that relationship depending on what happens with trent, if he gets lynched.

Vote trentonlf
Posted December 02, 2015
I see that puts me at L-1 and I don't see anyway I survive this day. Whoever the scum are they are playing a good game. I still say Ix is scum. I'm not sure what to think about cristi this game as she's been lurking more than usual, but if there are more than one scum left she would be my next suspect.

I'm tired and going to bed. I will save y'all he hassle and hammer myself.

Good luck to town

Unvote Ixamyakxim
Vote trentonlf
Posted December 02, 2015
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trentonlf: I will save y'all he hassle and hammer myself.
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionForum Mafia #32: Booze, Blood and Bullets: The Prohibition(1735 posts)(1735 posts)
(1735 posts)