Some days, I guess you just have to stop staring, pick a vial, and drink.
If flips can be completely altered to be anything, then we're screwed.
Therefore, I'm going to run under the assumption that the non-vanilla style flips are legit, the mafia "vanilla" flip is likely legit (but in question), and town vanilla flips are suspect (sucks to be Trent). Cleaned kills provide no information (obviously).
So two corpses, two dead mafia, one dead likely mafia, and one dead not town.
Unless a redirector wants to claim, 10v3v3 seems the most likely course in this case. 8v4v4, with flip changes and NK cleaners and jailers, seems just a tad bit overwhelming for town. Therefore, JMich and HSL are likely town.
bler144: However, I still
really think we should make Ix claim today as well even if Trent is the lynch.
I think, on the whole, that I'm in agreement with this statement.
drealmer7: I would like to hear more from bookwyrm on Ix, you and he were pretty contentious earlier in the game, do you find him more or less scummy at this point? Have aspects of it changed?
I don’t trust Ix; I still remember how he tried to paint me as scummy over my analysis of Yog’s claim back on Day 1.
Speaking of which: Yog, you should re-read
this post. Primarily the part about how I wasn’t going to go back and look again for more scum false claims. I do hope you’ll forgive my having not remembered your vanilla claim from the previous game; I wasn’t being nearly as careful as I should have that game.
cristigale: We’ve had one NK per night, something has to account for it.
Several things could account for it at this point, whether independently or in tandem: alternating kills, multi-targeting one victim, jailer blocks, holding kills, or something else.
bler144: I'm exhausted and not feeling good,ato the point I'm vibrating, and yet my only rest tonight came when I went into the b-room to get some TP for kleenex, passed out and woke up 5-10 min later in a sizable pool of blood. Not even sure how many places I'm bleeding from.
If you can afford it, hit the ER, or whatever local care center will be faster than the ER (urgent care?). I hope you get well soon.
bler144: 5 possibilities of adalia’s flip
2) Trent made the swap … <cut>
If Trent is scum and
thinks there are two teams , why raise the flag to both town and other team? That particularly doesn't seem to make sense at all. Now he's made himself a lynch & NK target. The only way it makes sense is that he made a desperate gamble, which I suppose is possible if the team was him/Leonard/P1na, though in that scenario I still think the 2nd team is Yogs/Ix and some 3rd I haven't figured out.
cristigale: (emphasis added)
As I was thinking through this, the emphasized portion caught my attention. Is there a scenario where trent is scum and doesn’t think there are two teams? Do you think the scum teams knew about each other from the start?
You just quoted such a scenario. Trent/Leonard/Pina. Pina gets lynched Day 1, Trent NK's JMich while Leonard jails Hijack for town cred. Adalia gets lynched Day 2 for the hammer reasoning + claim. No suspicion about a second scum team because Trent’s kill went through, and Trent could have tried to muddy the waters by messing with the lynch flip. Yog now has names for the opposing scum because his team is mirrored, but Leonard is easier to lynch than Trent after the way Day 2 progressed.
The night actions present a bit of a problem, however, especially Night 3. If Yog's team thinks Trent is lynchable (Yog mentioned a plan to go for Trent after Leonard was lynched), then I'd expect Yog to block Trent while Yog's buddies go kill someone else. Why waste a NK on scum you plan to lead town to lynch? I suppose Yog could have jailed someone else while one of his buddies tries to finish Trent, and Trent guns down Yog. How did Trent survive, then? Is there a chance that a NK just fails randomly? If Yog’s team truly believes Trent was scum, then I don’t see them completely ignoring him that night. Similar issue for Night 2, why didn't Yog's team go ahead and hit Trent's team, if they knew who was on it? I suppose they could have turtled for a night if Adalia was actually on Yog's team, hoping to keep them in the dark about a second scum team.
Another issue for this scenario: how was JMich's kill cleaned? I suppose it makes a certain amount of sense that both flip changing abilities could be done by the same role, and a complete cleaning during the day would be much more difficult. Having different kinds of flips for different alignments AND a flip changing ability in the same game feels bastard-moddy to me. This could also explain why Trent wasn't blocked: Yog was going to jail someone else while his flip-changing buddy turns Trent into another unknown. With the last opposing mafioso dead, Yog is free to scum hunt townies for the rest of the game, secure in his reputation of having already killed 3 scum fo sho.
...and damn if I didn't nearly talk myself into voting Trent.