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@bler144 , please take care of yourself.
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bler144: Holy shit - fucked up night for me.

@drealmer - I didn't kill yogs. FWIW.

I'm exhausted and not feeling good,ato the point I'm vibrating, and yet my only rest tonight came when I went into the b-room to get some TP for kleenex, passed out and woke up 5-10 min later in a sizable pool of blood. Not even sure how many places I'm bleeding from.

So...I may be staying in all day and checking on the game, or I may be sleeping all day, or I may end up in the E.r. Whatever y'all are going to do, don't wait around for me. May be here or may not.
I would go see a doctor if I was you. Whatever is going doesn't sound good. Passing out and waking up in a sizable amount of blood would scare the crap out of me. Whatever your decision I hope you get better soon.

My time in today will be spotty as I'll be on the road.
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bler144:
Here's hoping just a bit of hypertension and you whanged something on the way done or maybe a rupture of some sort from flying with an ear issue?

If you have a moment, do check in yes? Not for game reasons, just to let us know you're doing okay. And go see a doctor - better to be safe and in the very least make sure you didn't end up with a concussion.
Some days, I guess you just have to stop staring, pick a vial, and drink.

If flips can be completely altered to be anything, then we're screwed.
Therefore, I'm going to run under the assumption that the non-vanilla style flips are legit, the mafia "vanilla" flip is likely legit (but in question), and town vanilla flips are suspect (sucks to be Trent). Cleaned kills provide no information (obviously).

So two corpses, two dead mafia, one dead likely mafia, and one dead not town.

Unless a redirector wants to claim, 10v3v3 seems the most likely course in this case. 8v4v4, with flip changes and NK cleaners and jailers, seems just a tad bit overwhelming for town. Therefore, JMich and HSL are likely town.

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bler144: However, I still really think we should make Ix claim today as well even if Trent is the lynch.
I think, on the whole, that I'm in agreement with this statement.


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drealmer7: I would like to hear more from bookwyrm on Ix, you and he were pretty contentious earlier in the game, do you find him more or less scummy at this point? Have aspects of it changed?
I don’t trust Ix; I still remember how he tried to paint me as scummy over my analysis of Yog’s claim back on Day 1.

Speaking of which: Yog, you should re-read this post. Primarily the part about how I wasn’t going to go back and look again for more scum false claims. I do hope you’ll forgive my having not remembered your vanilla claim from the previous game; I wasn’t being nearly as careful as I should have that game.

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cristigale: We’ve had one NK per night, something has to account for it.
Several things could account for it at this point, whether independently or in tandem: alternating kills, multi-targeting one victim, jailer blocks, holding kills, or something else.

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bler144: I'm exhausted and not feeling good,ato the point I'm vibrating, and yet my only rest tonight came when I went into the b-room to get some TP for kleenex, passed out and woke up 5-10 min later in a sizable pool of blood. Not even sure how many places I'm bleeding from.
If you can afford it, hit the ER, or whatever local care center will be faster than the ER (urgent care?). I hope you get well soon.

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bler144: 5 possibilities of adalia’s flip

2) Trent made the swap … <cut>

If Trent is scum and thinks there are two teams , why raise the flag to both town and other team? That particularly doesn't seem to make sense at all. Now he's made himself a lynch & NK target. The only way it makes sense is that he made a desperate gamble, which I suppose is possible if the team was him/Leonard/P1na, though in that scenario I still think the 2nd team is Yogs/Ix and some 3rd I haven't figured out.
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cristigale: (emphasis added)

As I was thinking through this, the emphasized portion caught my attention. Is there a scenario where trent is scum and doesn’t think there are two teams? Do you think the scum teams knew about each other from the start?
You just quoted such a scenario. Trent/Leonard/Pina. Pina gets lynched Day 1, Trent NK's JMich while Leonard jails Hijack for town cred. Adalia gets lynched Day 2 for the hammer reasoning + claim. No suspicion about a second scum team because Trent’s kill went through, and Trent could have tried to muddy the waters by messing with the lynch flip. Yog now has names for the opposing scum because his team is mirrored, but Leonard is easier to lynch than Trent after the way Day 2 progressed.

The night actions present a bit of a problem, however, especially Night 3. If Yog's team thinks Trent is lynchable (Yog mentioned a plan to go for Trent after Leonard was lynched), then I'd expect Yog to block Trent while Yog's buddies go kill someone else. Why waste a NK on scum you plan to lead town to lynch? I suppose Yog could have jailed someone else while one of his buddies tries to finish Trent, and Trent guns down Yog. How did Trent survive, then? Is there a chance that a NK just fails randomly? If Yog’s team truly believes Trent was scum, then I don’t see them completely ignoring him that night. Similar issue for Night 2, why didn't Yog's team go ahead and hit Trent's team, if they knew who was on it? I suppose they could have turtled for a night if Adalia was actually on Yog's team, hoping to keep them in the dark about a second scum team.

Another issue for this scenario: how was JMich's kill cleaned? I suppose it makes a certain amount of sense that both flip changing abilities could be done by the same role, and a complete cleaning during the day would be much more difficult. Having different kinds of flips for different alignments AND a flip changing ability in the same game feels bastard-moddy to me. This could also explain why Trent wasn't blocked: Yog was going to jail someone else while his flip-changing buddy turns Trent into another unknown. With the last opposing mafioso dead, Yog is free to scum hunt townies for the rest of the game, secure in his reputation of having already killed 3 scum fo sho.

...and damn if I didn't nearly talk myself into voting Trent.
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drealmer7: Kryps, I always want to hear more of what you have to say, about anything. I'd love to hear what you think about the any of flips or non-flips (was P1na scum do you still think?
P1na flipped as Mafia Goon, which is essentially a vanilla Mafia. All the other vanilla reveals were Town. This implies that, if there is funny business going on with flips, P1na was not one of them.

Yogsloth made a point about this, which, ironically, carries more weight for me because he was revealed as scum. If scum have the ability to mess with alignment and/or role reveals, they may not have all been on the same page on Day 1.

So, to answer your question more directly: yes, I still think P1na was scum.

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drealmer7: what do you think about the non-flips of JMich+HSL being town power roles that got eliminated early?
I think it is quite possible one or both of JMich and HypersomniacLive may have had roles. I can't speak to how likely this may or may not be. Heck, I can't even be sure whether or not they were even Town at all.

This all hinges on adaliabooks' alignment/role reveal. He claimed a neutral role that wasn't especially pro-town. Yet, he was revealed as Town Vanilla. It makes zero sense for a Town Vanilla to fake-claim, thus he must have been something else. Thus, I am fairly certain that this revelation was monkeyed with in some way.

Now, both JMich and HypersomniacLive were both revealed as nothing, but yogsloth actually had a role/alignment revelation. This implies that JMich and HypersomsiacLive had their alignment/role revelations prevented in some way. This doesn't necessarily mean they also were scummy and/or had roles, but I do have to allow for that possibility.

So, to answer your question more directly: maybe.

((anyone notice how I hate using the word 'flip' and try to avoid it completely? :P))

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cristigale: I think both Godfather roles in flubb’s game could vote each night. 2-3 times, they both picked the same target.
Or only one chose to kill on any given Night. The main mechanic of the two Godfather's in flubbucket's game is that had Bulletproof on alternating Nights (to avoid them both dying on the same Night).
EBWOP

Oops. P1na actually was revealed as "Mafia Thug" not "Mafia Goon". I double-checked after posting to make sure I wasn't just concatenating "Mafia with no special abilties" with an actual possible role revelation. This makes it even more probable to me that nobody messed with P1na's death information, and 'Mafia Thug' was actually the name of his role.
Lastly, after read further on:

@bler144 I would reiterate what others have said and see some sort of medical professional. I hope it is nothing, and you feel better.
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Krypsyn: ((anyone notice how I hate using the word 'flip' and try to avoid it completely? :P))
I did. I like the word reveal. It has some panache.


It also reminds me of my flasher days not so long ago....
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flubbucket: [...]

It also reminds me of my flasher days not so long ago....
I knew you looked familiar!


Sorry LIfthrasil, couldn't resist.
Attachments:
flasher.jpg (144 Kb)
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flubbucket: [...]

It also reminds me of my flasher days not so long ago....
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HypersomniacLive: I knew you looked familiar!

Sorry LIfthrasil, couldn't resist.
Silence! I kill you! ... Wait. You are already dead. Please stay in your grave.
Back from the E.R. and off to conference so I can at least pretend I'm working. But I did have something really important to share.

Three little old ladies were sitting on a park bench, when a man in a trench coat approached them. He walked right up to the first little old lady and exposed himself.

That little old lady had a stroke!

Then he exposed himself to the second little old lady - she also had a stroke!

Finally he exposed himself to the third little old lady - but her arms were too short to reach.
Today the entire council seems to be paralysed by fear. If yogsloth was Mafia, why was he killed? Does that mean that there are competing gangs who have each undermined the council? Or is there a crazy vigilante among you? And what does that mean for the chances for a peaceful, democratic end? Will anyone survive this? ... Some people have already voiced their opinion on who seems off. Trentonlf and, to a lesser degree, Ixamyakxim are accused of being corrupt by some. But all others keep back and don't dare to vote. Everyone seems to be afraid to talk. Afraid to voice an opinion and no one dares to really interrogate someone out of fear to become the next one to die. So nothing moves and everyone just stares at each other over the less and less crowded conference table.

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No new votes since yesterday. So the vote count stays the same:

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trentonlf 4: Ixamyakxim, krypsyn, HijacK, flubbucket
Ixamyakxim 2: bler, trentonlf

not voting: drealmer, cristi, dedo, Bookwyrm.
With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch and trentonlf is at L-2

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Political decisions:
Option 3 (call in the national guard): 1 vote by drealmer.
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Post edited December 01, 2015 by Lifthrasil
Lets put my money where my mouth is.

Vote Ixam.
Clients are here for 3 days and I'm in 10 hours long meetings every day, so I'm not able to partake too much. I apologize for this, should get back to normal on Thursday.



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Ixamyakxim: So basically if someone is prodded and protected, that protection won't count? I hadn't considered that honestly. I had images in my head of Lifthy rolling a D6 at his desk every night.
Yes, the dice or any kind of RNGenerator would work just fine, but you were discussing possibilities so I threw my 2 cents as well.



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HijacK: I don't follow. Can you explain that?
I can try (these are mostly me thinking out loud). Yog had details about mechanics that I strongly doubt came from his own role. He most likely got them from his buddy (there was no public information that was even close to reaching such a conclusion on his own back then). IF there is a single team the role scrambler is Yog's buddy. If there are 2 teams and we assume Yog was targeting rival scum statistically there should be more people left on Yog's team. Bler or someone else talked about the little sense in Trent messing with the role which I kind of agree with. There may be some deeper agenda but at least on the surface I can't see meaningful reason to do it (that doesn't exclude the option of him being scum anyway). If all that is true it's more likely that the flip was changed by Yog's buddy.



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drealmer7: OH! another theory I had had was maybe that scum isn't a team, there are just some in existence trying to find each other? That seems to go against the idea of the game (informed majority) but maybe it is something weird like that and there are 10 town and 6 scum and none of the scum know who each other are? Nah that just seems crazy too.
They should be at least in 2 person teams if not more, because Yog knew stuff that are highly unlikely to come with his role.




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bler144: Huh. Your play seems...odd for vanilla townie. Voting for yogs D1/D3 can be explained in a number of ways, but D2 voting in particular I'd really like to hear an explanation for.
Oh! I missed that post and another one yesterday.

@Trent, how would you rate your Town Vanilla contribution so far?



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drealmer7: With that, I'd like to hear input from dedo and cristi as to who they think on trent's wagon is most likely to be scum. I guess if I'm asking that I should pose someone too. My guess would have to be Ix. Hmmhmmmmm. Curiouser and curiouser the circles wind. Definitely leaning more to Ix now. Watch, in 2 hours after reading around in circles more I'll be off of that. GAH! HELP! *deep breaths*
Like I said, I have the feeling that Ix and Trent are both likely to be scum on opposite teams. So yes, Ix. Quite possibly someone else as well, but can't really tell who. I don't like flub's vote since it's basically HijacK's vote with HijacK's reason in one line. I have never been a fan of piggybacking. And there was a distinct one-sided pushing in Yog's direction at the beginning that may or may not have been a way to distance themselves from one another and make it look consistent with prior games.



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cristigale: That’s only possible if some sort of redirection is going on.
If that is actually the case I will laugh so hard! I mean what are the odds of Yog making his play and then dying by friendly fire because of a redirection? LOL! But no, I don't really buy that. Too much things make way more sense with multiple scum teams to go for the wilder theory.



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bler144: ~ needs medical attention fast ~
Dude, forget everything else if you have to and go get taken looked at, this seems too serious to just shake it off. Screw the game if you have to, but take care of yourself. All the best!
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dedoporno: I can try (these are mostly me thinking out loud). Yog had details about mechanics that I strongly doubt came from his own role. He most likely got them from his buddy (there was no public information that was even close to reaching such a conclusion on his own back then). IF there is a single team the role scrambler is Yog's buddy. If there are 2 teams and we assume Yog was targeting rival scum statistically there should be more people left on Yog's team. Bler or someone else talked about the little sense in Trent messing with the role which I kind of agree with. There may be some deeper agenda but at least on the surface I can't see meaningful reason to do it (that doesn't exclude the option of him being scum anyway). If all that is true it's more likely that the flip was changed by Yog's buddy.
That is a valid possibility, though in my mind A and B don't really connect. So far assumptions have been taken that adalia was AT LEAST anti-town, but what if he was full blown scum and scumbuddy of trent? This scenario is just as likely as the one you have outlined, if not actually more likely.

Since adalia's flip was obviously fudged, we should under no circumstance take what he said for granted.

@bler: Hope you will feel better soon and it's nothing serious. Health problems are terrible.