The best lies are mostly true. The question is: which part is the lie?

I have no idea where it ends, though I hope someone will eventually enlighten us. All things considered, I also hope it isn't JMich or HSL doing the enlightening.

I wish I could take credit, but someone beat me to it. Leonard was simply too good a lynch for most people, so I fell 2 votes short of what I needed. Turns out Leonard was also a good lynch, but I'm going to stand by the sentiment that lynching Yog would have been better.

That's fine. I made a point of poking you directly while I was asking, in case you were on the forums but hadn't noticed the game was live again. While I was thinking about it, I figured I'd publicly ping the mod about Day Begin prods, BEFORE anyone was actually subject to one; as was pointed out, you weren't subject to such a prod when I asked the question.

I'll go back and check it out again tomorrow.

Those two lines are actually separate. The one about jailing is a serious question, while the other was a reference to a recently departed player who also offered to give his information after a lynch occurred.

And I'm glad I generally try to proof read my posts, because auto correct would have made this post nonsensical otherwise.

Between re-reading parts (just parts so far) of the previous days and catching up on today, finally (geebus), I think I'm more frustrated than I was confused before. I'm not sure if that is better or not. I just don't know how to make a read at this point on what is going on, much less feel confident enough anywhere to vote. There are several variances that I see as possibilities and I have no inclinations as to which is more likely than the others right now.

I do think there have to be multiple scum teams, but I see several possible variances of how that could break down, especially considering how people have been behaving towards each other and the votes/reasons given for votes etc. There are contradicting factors all around and it leaves me in a whirlwind. I think some people are staging some of these arguments, but, I can't really tell?

I would think two scum teams seems most likely? There have been 2 scum jailers (I do at least believe those 2 flips, not sure about the others anymore, it's just all odd at this point/don't know what to make of it.) It seems most likely to me each team had 1 jailer and they each spotted the other's and they removed them from the game pretty readily. That seems pretty good to me, at least.

So, I think it is possibly 10v3v3? Why? A few reasons. The 12 or 16 number Lifthrasil called for at signup. It could have been 8v2v2 if it were 12. But not anything good with 14 or odd numbers because of needing even scum teams. It makes sense. However the numbers 8v4v4 and 6v3v3 also work in the 16 and 12 player game balance, but...

those #s seem fairly imblanced for town. If it were that in this game I would think more town-power role players would exist because 8v4v4 just seems unfair otherewise, and at this point in the game they would be advancing some better information...

Though of course that does bring in to question (has been mentioned) the thought that perhaps JMich and/or HSL had power roles that scum got lucky on eliminating? That would really suck. It's impossible to say of course. Is it possible that the reason they didn't reveal anything in their flips be due to the roles they had? So it wasn't told that certain roles had been eliminated? That seems to hurt town quite a bit more so and so, yeah, 10v3v3 for fairness I think is more likely.

Then I try to think of who would be on the 2 scum teams, and that becomes really hurting of the brain. So many people seem against each other in different ways. Is it just town at each-other's throats and scum is sitting back hoping not to lose any more of their number, with slight pushes here and there making it get worse? And then my brain goes here because of all the contention going on between different people:

MAYYYYBE there are THREE scum teams and the numbers are 10v2v2v2, or FOUR scum teams and the numbers are 8v2v2v2v2? Would that mean 3 or 4 jailers out there? These are just crazy/paranoid thoughst right? I doubt there are that many scum teams, but, I don't know, the brain went there and I don't know what to think for sure! Regardless, it seems there is some mechanic in place that only lets there be 1 kill a night? But again that is just a theory and maybe it's just happened to go that way.

Ugh, so many rambling theories of multiple variances. That's why I say, I really don't know what to think at this point, much less who to vote for! I feel like I have to pick a theory and move forward with it to try and figure things out, but last I did that I was following yogsloth to wherever he was leading and, so now I'm just hesitant to judge anything.

What to go with to try and figure things out? If I run with one theory and...

Go with thinking 10v3v3 with 2 scum-jailers removed from the game then to me at the moment it looks to like it could at best be 8v1v1, but more likely it is 7v2v1 and P1na was possibly town?

That leaves 3 scum left? Maybe? Is that too good to be true at this point in the game? If so, who could they be? Are they sitting quietly now trying to get town to tear each other down? Or are they the people causing the most noise trying to advance theories and push others to vote or somesuch?

OH! another theory I had had was maybe that scum isn't a team, there are just some in existence trying to find each other? That seems to go against the idea of the game (informed majority) but maybe it is something weird like that and there are 10 town and 6 scum and none of the scum know who each other are? Nah that just seems crazy too.

Is any of this even helpful? Am I just stoned rambling(!)? Part of me wants to delete this whole thing out of paranoia with how you all jump on each other for formulating theories, but, I don't like just sitting and lurking either and not contributing thoughts. It's bothered me I haven't been able to contribute more time to the pontifications (I'm sure you're all missing my abundant posts!)

Another post to come somepoint later with thoughts on individuals, but, I'm not sure how helpful that will be either.

This is not deep analysis, this is more general reads, feelings. and thoughts towards individuals. Ya know, more ramblings.

Trent certainly doesn't seem the scummiest and I'm not really comfortable voting him at this point, but he certainly isn't in the clear either and pings scummy to me at various points kind of strong. My main hesitance with him right now is how ready everyone else seems to lynch him and wasn't yogs after him? It makes me pause is all. Do people then think that was a ruse between them? Perhaps they are opposite scum? It's really hard for me to get a read around trent at this point and so, yeah, not very comfy.

Ix I'm having the same dilemma as last game with him. It seems to me a lot of what he could be doing is just "thinking out loud" and not being too good at articulating his thoughts and differentiating one potential theory from another and others are just using that to crucify him and make him an easy target for getting people to vote for him so they can get him eliminated. He just kind of rambles from the brain and it looks bad and then doesn't do the best at explaining, and, YEAH it looks bad and I do find it suspicious, really, but, I had the same issues with him last game (though certainly not as bad as this game, but then, he didn't live as long/the last game didn't go on as long, sooo...*shrug*) and I made a bad choice with him last game and so now feel completely conflicted there because I recognize he can just get himself into a jam and scum can use that against him and that may be what he's done here. That doesn't mean he doesn't seem scummy to me either (he certainly does at points and his actions are certainly questionable), it, just doesn't leave me feeling comfortable with him, but at this point I would say that I'd be more comfortable voting him now than I was last game, but there's not the same sort of pressure+delay or overall circumstances as there were last game, so he still doesn't garner a vote at this point from me. I think this could change depending how things go and how he reads on a more thorough re-read.

Bler at times seems super-scummy to me, and then in the same posts he seems completely reasonable and like I agree with him and it feels like I should look to him for guidance and that he's totally looking out for town, especially now with how it went at yogsloth. But, then, I am getting paranoid when it comes to him. MAYBE that was all a ruse between he and yogsloth? Seems like something they could/would do if they were scum together? He could have been on the yogsloth wagon/doing all that to play a game with us all and then jumped off the wagon if yogsloth got another vote and gone to leonard, saved yogsloth and not been suspicious for it. He seemed happy to play fence-sitting between the two, afterall and I kind of was suspecting him to jump off at any time, and wasn't finding it fishy at the time, and now I kind of do.) OR maybe, another thing that then piques my scumdar quite a bit too because, it also seems like that possibly happened between because he is being manipulative of the entire situation as well and is on the opposite scum team from yogsloth and WAS trying to get him killed (and did get him) before he himself was gotten. The more I re-read bler too, the more scummy he seems, but, in certain lights I can see me being totally wrong. So, definitely not comfortable here one way or the other. *hugs bler* I love you even if you're scum, I want to believe you're town!

HijacK seemed like my best choice heading in to today, and, he's still got some validity in my eyes, but, much much much less so than yesterday and some of what he is saying is making a lot of sense whereas before he wasn't seeming to make much sense. This seems odd to me in itself too, but, I'm beginning to trust him more and so certainly not comfortable voting him like I was before.

On re-reading and going by feeling of the flow of how it has all gone, I'd say bookwyrm seems the most scummy to me, but, it's not like I have any solid theories as to why and not like I'm comfortable thinking he's scum either. He read scummy to me a bit last game and was not.

Dedo seems least scummy/most likely town to me. Someone who is just trying to figure the shits out and seemingly frustrated at the inconsistancies and oddnesses.

So, bookwyrm, then I guess bler, then I guess trentonlf, then Ix, then....I don't know. But none of which are convincing me as scum enough to get my vote. Then I think, well, most of us are probably town and if there are only 2 or 3 scum left, they could be flubbucket and cristigale and 1 other, being mostly quiet and letting us all go at each other, like I said before, but, fuck I don't know!

YEAHHH, I'm sure that was all super-helpful! More likely helpful in getting people pissed at me and aiming to kill me more than it did anything else!

Hence my vote being on calling in the national guard to sort this out! Too much confusion and uncertainty! HELP!

Erp have to ebwop because I meant ---- informed MINORITY before. obviously

At the hotel, finally. Getting caught up.

Hmmm...I hadn't considered that. Best argument you've made. Though at least from here there seem to be several assumptions underlying your argument that I'm not sure I would personally buy, but since I don't actually know either way I'm not inclined to argue.

Personally I think the best argument for Trent was always that if he flips scum he pretty much confirms two teams, since it's near impossible (for me, anyway) to conceive of Trent/yogs as teammates.

Unless one is inclined to doubt flips other than adalia's, but I'm just not willing to go there without evidence, and I'm not re-reading the whole game on a cracked screen just on the possibility.

Please, don't just insinuate, be specific. Your saving grace at this point is that Trent doesn't look great either, and for whatever reason people seem content to write off your bad arguments as "weirdness."

We had two wagons, and the subject of both wagons flipped scum.

If I read you literally, you seem to be saying that you're on board with finding scum voting for yogs because voting for the guy who flipped scum is suspicious, and if yogs had other teammates of his on Leonard's wagon, hey, NBD, worry about that later. Which is awwwwfully convenient if you just happen to be one of those on yogs' team. Isn't it?

But please, enlighten us. Start with something simple. Of the 5 people on yogs' wagon, how many were scum? All of them? 2 of them? Should we just vote through all 5 til we get them all however many there may be? (and then, y'know, stop and do the math).

If Ix is actually town at the end of all this, I am so eating my hat.

Meh. Ix seems perfectly capable of coming up with nonsense arguments on his own. I tend to think if yogs had fed him an argument it would have, y'know, made sense and possibly even been convincing.

Huh. Your play seems...odd for vanilla townie. Voting for yogs D1/D3 can be explained in a number of ways, but D2 voting in particular I'd really like to hear an explanation for.

I also don't think it's a fair assessment that yogs is the only reason, and possibly not even the main reason, you're under the gun. If there are two teams (seems likely at this point), and those teams are mirrored it's quite possible you did something he actually recognized. Also possible he was just trying to run you, but again, what he said isn't the only reason.


Gonna sleep on it, and am curious to hear if he has an explanation for D2, but I think I'm sold. I'm inclined to vote Trent today, though I don't see a huge rush for us to bring the day to a close given that a few people have barely spoken.

However, I still really think we should make Ix claim today as well even if Trent is the lynch.

Eh, you're on Hijack in part b/c he's on you. Despite my dust-up with him this morning, I really only tend to think he fits as scum at all if there are 3 squads. And at this point the only evidence for that is the rambling of Ix, which apparently I take too literally.

Though I will say, i read Ix last game, and while he was a bit ...brusque at times, I don't recall his arguments looking the way they do in this game. I thought the best argument for lynching him last game was that he would have made a great wagon for analysis. I think people are giving him way too much leeway in this game. We give Flub/Krypsyn some leeway to be lurky and vague, but if they were actually saying scummy things, people would be on them, much the way adalia pushed Flub for his SK comments early in the game but backed off when Flub could actually explain it.

As for me and yogs distancing, you're way overthinking that. It's somewhat amusing I'm suspect despite the fact that of the 3 candidates I've made arguments for their scumminess that have gone out, 2 flipped scum, and adalia was...whatever, but at best anti-town neutral.

But the angle Krypsyn/Hijack are pushing at least actually can make a sense. Ignore that I helped push Leonard D1/D2 when his wagon was going nowhere, and focus on that I was on adalia/yogs over Leonard when it came to actual votes for that day, and ignore that those alternative votes actually appear to have been on good targets as well.

The oddest thing wasn't that Krypsyn might suspect the possibility of a link between Trent/me, that part doesn't surprise me at all - what's surprising is that he actually said it.

Think about that for a bit. Especially if you happen to be sitting on a plane with not much else to do. It seems to point to one of two things (or possibly both).

But tying me to yogs? That's just nuts. No offense.

If you agree with my analysis and find the possibility of the trent to have fudged the flip likely you can't really say I'm making "several" assumptions, or any dangerous ones at this point.


Maybe. Maybe not. I see that as a catalyst to my flip messing analysis, not really the core reason. Like, I don't know about @y'all, but yogs and Leonard's feud with both of them flipping mafia jailers kind of ironed the idea of 2 scum teams in my mind. How would voting patterns make any grain of sense otherwise? Like, let's look at all the days in retrospect. If anyone has the balls to do that with me (sorry cristi) , let's do it! I just glanced at day 3 and I can tell you, if they were scumbuddies or cooperating it would have been relatively easy to detract attention from one another and try to focus on something else, like I don't know. Anybody for that matter. Either that or go into a game of attrition and stagnation.

Trent's flip actually won't confirm 2 scum teams argument. It will only reinforce it further. The argument is already there pretty obvious.

Finally! Sheesh...
Alas, let us continue discussion.

Yeah, paranoia is all that is, I'm pretty sure. I find it more likely you are (were?) on opposite scum teams going at each other and you got to him first overnight because you felt him as a threat figuring he was scum jailer not town jailer. But at this point it's hard for me to see straight and I think that could just be paranoia too and I should be trusting you more after he flipped scum. I don't know, I'm just remaining cautions, being aware that anyone could be scum at this point and just because I can feel good about some of the things you say, doesn't mean I should fully trust you, that's all really, and that of course makes sense.

Sometimes in your posts it seems like you're trying really hard to get people to think certain ways rather than presenting potential options about people, or that you're a bit quick to condemn them. Sometimes it seems like you have an agenda you're trying to push and are a bit too confident in your votes/assertions, but then, I feel like I do that at times too and can't really fault you I suppose. And it is only at a few points here and there that seem really bad to me from you. Other times you seem uncertain enough and to just be presenting the options reasonably and trying to figure it all out, but then, I suppose scum would be trying to do that too! ARGH! Yeah, paranoia I think more than anything the more I think it out.

And don't mistake me, I'm not comfortable calling you scum, I'm just being cautious to keep all options on the table at this point. As I said, the reads on everything bounce all around depending, it's hard for me, sooo, BRING IN THE NATIONAL GUARD. Everyone up against the wall and let them search all the rooms and see what we can find out!

That is to say, more than anything, I am at such a loss I don't know what to do.

Ultimately, no deadline, no rush to decide/place a vote.

I would like to hear more from bookwyrm on Ix, you and he were pretty contentious earlier in the game, do you find him more or less scummy at this point? Have aspects of it changed? Reversely, Ix, are you cool with book at this point or still keeping your eye on him? More re-reads after the past couple hours and book is seeming less scummy and Ix a bit more scummy. I think more I'm just finding book to be cutting with his criticism, I am liking him more on re-reads now definitely.

Kryps, I always want to hear more of what you have to say, about anything. I'd love to hear what you think about the any of flips or non-flips (was P1na scum do you still think? what do you think about the non-flips of JMich+HSL being town power roles that got eliminated early? again, any thoughts would be good!)

I have taken some time to go back and read yogsloth more completely. Geebus! Hindsight is a mofo. It's very very interesting to re-read him. I bet he is super-pissed he is dead. Ouch.

Trent, how do you feel about kryps? Do you think he and yogs are possible scum-buddies? They had seemed a little too openly okay with supporting each other to be, but, do you think they were trying to be super-clever and pull the "there's no way we are working together this openly" schtick? With being on the chopping block, is there someone you feel is leading the charge against you? Who? I must say your wagon might make the best analysis at this point, and with that, I don't even feel like you need to be lynched to do the analysis. I want to figure out who on your wagon is most likely scum because, even if you're scum, there's an opposite scum on there somewhere I think, if not more than 1, who is it is what I think we should be trying to figure out first and foremost at this point.

With that, I'd like to hear input from dedo and cristi as to who they think on trent's wagon is most likely to be scum. I guess if I'm asking that I should pose someone too. My guess would have to be Ix. Hmmhmmmmm. Curiouser and curiouser the circles wind. Definitely leaning more to Ix now. Watch, in 2 hours after reading around in circles more I'll be off of that. GAH! HELP! *deep breaths*

1) I didn't say they were dangerous assumptions, did I?
2) Are we saying more or less the same thing? Right now it looks likely there are two teams. If Trent flips scum it looks rock solid and we can perhaps do some meaningful analysis on that basis.

As for more talking, I haven't done a post count, but my perception is that it's been 50% you and me talking back and forth. Considering there are 10 players left, that's probably not a healthy balance.

Anyway, I really need to get to bed. Not sure what my participation will look like tomorrow.

You don't seem to be taking a stance on whether we should make Ix claim today, which seems to indicate you either don't think he should or don't think it's important. Which of those would you say, and why?

I'm good with whatever, honestly. Dedo made a good point about claims in general. Unless Ix claims something ridiculous, I don't see myself jumping on him today. Like, at all. I am hyped about my analysis and the chances of a claim budging me from it are low.
And if he doesn't want to claim... well, there's always tomorrow to interrogate him. The reason why I am not particularly interested in his claim is because it is of little relevance to my case on trent right now. Now, don't get me wrong. I'm curious, but I'm not going to split push unless I got people applying pressure on bot lane (League of Legends reference).

I think both Godfather roles in flubb’s game could vote each night. 2-3 times, they both picked the same target. On one night, Sage chose not to take the kill. But I agree that two mafia jailers on a single team does not make sense, especially since yogs was a NK. That’s only possible if some sort of redirection is going on. Without other evidence to support that, I simply can’t go there right now. That just muddies the waters further.

When I first read the OP about prodded players being more killable, I assumed it meant a night kill could fail. I read it as: there are differnent likelihoods of dying. If a player is more likely to die at times, they are less likely to die at other times (ergo, a player may not die). That may not be what was intended, other explanations are possible. Assuming we have two teams, the NK could be alternating between teams. We’ve had one NK per night, something has to account for it.

Holy shit - fucked up night for me.

@drealmer - I didn't kill yogs. FWIW.

I'm exhausted and not feeling good,ato the point I'm vibrating, and yet my only rest tonight came when I went into the b-room to get some TP for kleenex, passed out and woke up 5-10 min later in a sizable pool of blood. Not even sure how many places I'm bleeding from.

So...I may be staying in all day and checking on the game, or I may be sleeping all day, or I may end up in the E.r. Whatever y'all are going to do, don't wait around for me. May be here or may not.

In order to move forward, I’m going with the scenario that seems the most likely at this point: we have two scum teams. I’m also going to assume that the scum flips we’ve seen so far are legit. The waters get murky too quickly when I try to consider that pina, leonard and/or yog’s flip may be false. I’d expect the 2 jailors to be on separate teams. I’d also expect the teams to be roughly similar in power. JMich and Hyper no-flipped. I expect they are town, but no proof of that. Adalia is the flip that is clearly false.

(emphasis added)

As I was thinking through this, the emphasized portion caught my attention. Is there a scenario where trent is scum and doesn’t think there are two teams? Do you think the scum teams knew about each other from the start?

@bler - please take care of yourself, from what you described medical attention sounds wise

I'm having trouble posting, I apologize if this double posts