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General discussionForum Mafia #32: Booze, Blood and Bullets: The Prohibition(1735 posts)(1735 posts)
(1735 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted November 29, 2015
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Ixamyakxim: And yet you've bailed on all those (scum?) wagons except the Day One lynch of P1na.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say if we lynch trent and he's scum, you won't be on that one either.

You'll also remember trenton's vote on adalia came only AFTER HSL cast what would have been the "final" vote if dedo had unvoted. In other words, because the lynch was already sealed and it was better for him to be on board than off.
You'll also note I knew dedo's vote was no good and he had went to bed. Before Hyper even placed the vote that would have been the hammer if dedo's vote counted I stated I would hammer after a few hours. Any other points you would like to make that make no sense?
Posted November 29, 2015
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bler144: On P1na's flip (and Leonard's) I worry you're getting a bit deep in the weeds on what might just be flavor (which I know is probably amusing coming from me). On p1na's in particular, note that the "apparently" follows the sentence about his seeming lack of powers, not his alignment. I.e. there's a difference between "He's scum vanilla, apparently has no powers" and "He's apparently scum vanilla, and has no powers."
Ah, but if you are to compare P1na's flip with adalia's, you will notice that for adalia it was clearly stated what his power was, while for P1na it was only an "apparent" power. It is fairly sound to presume adalia was a power role based on given data. His flip however entirely contradicts the claimed block. And when taken as a whole both the role and the alignment contradict everything he has said.
Now in P1na's case, besides the weird claims, his flip specifically states his powers are "apparently" those that the evidence indicates.

Now this begs another question: When I put everything in retrospect does whomever mess around with the flips have different effects on scum flips compared to non-scum flips?

I tend to believe P1na was scum. And Leonard even more so given the flavor. But adalia just baffles me. I am almost certain the key is somewhere in his wagon.
Posted November 29, 2015
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HijacK: 1) Now this begs another question: When I put everything in retrospect does whomever mess around with the flips have different effects on scum flips compared to non-scum flips?

2) I tend to believe P1na was scum. And Leonard even more so given the flavor. But adalia just baffles me. I am almost certain the key is somewhere in his wagon.
Probably. Though it's occurred to me perhaps adalia had the power to mess with his own flip, as something of a variant on a Stump. For now I'm trying not to let it fuzz me too much because I don't know.

Though i do think it's a nice benefit that my top two suspects just based on play were both on his wagon, so in the natural order of things maybe we find out in the next 2 days anyway.

I thought about #1 a bit last night. I'm...really inclined to doubt it. Why? Because both flipped the role they claimed, so the only monkeying would appear to be alignment. That's pretty subtle. Whatever happened with adalia is at least a huge big flashing sign, whether or not we know yet what it's saying.

For subtle fuck-ups town would have to have some sort of power to offset it. We've probably all speculated that maybe JMich was the coroner. But if that's the case, would Lift have balanced the game around someone who could just up and die N1 with no replacement? I suppose it's possible JMich/HSL were primary and backup, maybe, if unlikely.

We can be fairly certain yogs/Leonard/P1na were not coroner. If there is still one out there they're staying silent despite what could be gained from knowing the truth of adalia. Plus, if you read the tea leaves, at least the suggestion is that town at least appears to have quite a bit of vanilla in it. Which was one of the issues I had with yogs' "5-scum" theory as well.

Though maybe I'm wrong and there's a wave of investigative claims coming, in which case, would have to re-evaluate at that point.
Posted November 29, 2015
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bler144: I thought about #1 a bit last night. I'm...really inclined to doubt it. Why? Because both flipped the role they claimed, so the only monkeying would appear to be alignment. That's pretty subtle. Whatever happened with adalia is at least a huge big flashing sign, whether or not we know yet what it's saying.
False. The adalia did not claim vanilla. He himself said he had a night action. Now, you see, if you assume both P1na and Leonard were scum, it makes sense that probably only P1na's role was messed with. If you think adalia was scum the whole situation goes into bizarro world. If you think adalia was something else, some kind of third party, then it makes sense that maybe effects are different depending on alignment (i.e. scum maybe can't cover their alignment)
At the end of the day it's just a possibility, but it's the one I'm leading my investigation on.

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bler144: For subtle fuck-ups town would have to have some sort of power to offset it. We've probably all speculated that maybe JMich was the coroner. But if that's the case, would Lift have balanced the game around someone who could just up and die N1 with no replacement? I suppose it's possible JMich/HSL were primary and backup, maybe, if unlikely.
In flub's ranch game there was only one coroner and he died really quick.

As for claims, I'm not sure whether claim now is good. It might inspire others to do so too, at which point why don't we just trigger a mass claim and be done with it? It always seems it kind of ends that way towards the mid/latter mid game.
Posted November 29, 2015
If people do want to go down adalia avenue, there seem to be 5 possibilities:

1) adalia himself made the swap. As neutral, it would be useless, as scum it might have some actual value. Though if he was scum, WTH did he claim the role he claimed? Really hard to find sense in it unless his intent was completely to throw us off-track, perhaps to switch attention from Leonard to Trent, though at least on the first part of that he didn't succeed.

2) Trent made the swap, whether by being the hammer or some magic of getting on/off/on/off/on adalia's wagon or something entirely unrelated. Why? If scum Trent and adalia were teammates, why not let him flip scum and take credit via the bus. If scum Trent thinks adalia is neutral, again why attract attention vs. just taking credit for hammering anti-town neutral? Hopes of pinning it on yogs to draw steam off Leonard, perhaps? Though that seems pretty desperate to give himself up for Leonard on D2, esp. given that Leonard didn't seem particularly interested in saving himself.

If Trent is scum and thinks there are two teams, why raise the flag to both town and other team? That particularly doesn't seem to make sense at all. Now he's made himself a lynch & NK target. The only way it makes sense is that he made a desperate gamble, which I suppose is possible if the team was him/Leonard/P1na, though in that scenario I still think the 2nd team is Yogs/Ix and some 3rd I haven't figured out.

3) Someone else on the wagon made the swap to bring attention to Trent. Who/how IDK.

4) Someone not on the wagon made the swap. Who/how IDK. Seems bastard-moddy.

5) Something in the game setup itself, like even day lynches flip fucked-up. Seems very bastard-moddy.

I'm going to rule out 3-5 for the simple reason that , without investigation there's really nothing to be done with them. 1 or 2 look likely but both create some problems.

If Trent made the play, it would seem either miscalculation or desperation. So we have to assume he not only has the power, but would willingly pin a beacon on his head D2 for...something. With adalia one would only have to assume he had the power and decided to screw with us as he went out the door, but in theory that points to either 5 scum or two teams.

So was it adalia or Trent? Without more data IDK. I find it somewhat interesting people are quick to assume it's #2. Do they know something? Yogs was the first to hop on Trent (Krypsyn 2nd), so the question is, was that yogs recognizing a play by an opponent on a mirrored team, or was yogs (teammate of adalia) just finding a way to roll Trent?
Posted November 29, 2015
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bler144: I find it somewhat interesting people are quick to assume it's #2.
You resume to presume to assume. Where's my broom?
Posted November 29, 2015
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bler144: ............<words and numbers>............
I can't see #1 as viable. The reason why adaliabooks would do such a thing is where I trip. You make good points, but it doesn't ring true.

#4 & 5 are also not likely for obvious reasons. (Lifthrasil highly unlikely to bastard mod and how could someone know trentonlf would actually hammer.)

#2 & 3 have merit. However I still wonder how a player can direct focus/attention toward trentonlf....or anyone else for that matter.

I can see the "hammer...hammerer...blacksmith...w/e" being the most likely to direct change on reveal results. I don't see it as a beacon, at least I hadn't until the flips become suspicious.

Since adaliabooks hammered P1na and trentonlf hammered adaliabooks, would switching adaliabooks alignment make the P1na flip more credible??
Posted November 30, 2015
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bler144: ...Because both flipped the role they claimed, so the only monkeying would appear to be alignment. That's pretty subtle. Whatever happened with adalia is at least a huge big flashing sign, whether or not we know yet what it's saying.
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HijacK: False. The adalia did not claim vanilla. He himself said he had a night action. Now, you see, if you assume both P1na and Leonard were scum, it makes sense that probably only P1na's role was messed with. I...
Didn't refresh before I posted then left to run errands.

I was probably unclear, but 'both' indicates 2, not 3. The two I meant were P1na/Leonard. Still disagree with me?

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bler144: I find it somewhat interesting people are quick to assume it's #2.
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Krypsyn: You resume to presume to assume. Where's my broom?
You've been pretty tight-lipped most of the game. I've ignored it thus far since you've been on players I've had as scummy myself, but...eventually I think you're going to have to share a little bit. I won't go so far as to ask you to be touchy-feely, but...

what do you think is going on? Why specifically do you think is the case for voting Trent over everyone else? How would you feel about horse trading Ix/Trent or Trent/Ix as the next two days' agenda? Should toilet paper come off the top of the roll or the bottom of the roll?

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flubbucket: I can't see #1 as viable. The reason why adaliabooks would do such a thing is where I trip. You make good points, but it doesn't ring true.
If anything I thought the weak part wasn't why he would use it, but why he would have it. Of course I think the "why would he have it" and "why would he use it" questions apply to Trent as well. Ymmv.
Posted November 30, 2015
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bler144: You've been pretty tight-lipped most of the game. I've ignored it thus far since you've been on players I've had as scummy myself, but...eventually I think you're going to have to share a little bit. I won't go so far as to ask you to be touchy-feely, but...
Heh.
Posted November 30, 2015
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bler144: You've been pretty tight-lipped most of the game. I've ignored it thus far since you've been on players I've had as scummy myself, but...eventually I think you're going to have to share a little bit. I won't go so far as to ask you to be touchy-feely, but...
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Krypsyn: Heh.
Oh, ok. That makes more sense now.
Posted November 30, 2015
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bler144: ............<snip>...........

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flubbucket: I can't see #1 as viable. The reason why adaliabooks would do such a thing is where I trip. You make good points, but it doesn't ring true.
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bler144: If anything I thought the weak part wasn't why he would use it, but why he would have it. Of course I think the "why would he have it" and "why would he use it" questions apply to Trent as well. Ymmv.
Can you see trentonlf and adaliabooks as scum team members??

Or since we seem to have two jailers, perhaps they were on opposite teams both with the ability to jack with lynch reveals.
Posted November 30, 2015
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flubbucket: Can you see trentonlf and adaliabooks as scum team members??

Or since we seem to have two jailers, perhaps they were on opposite teams both with the ability to jack with lynch reveals.
Good question. I hadn't really considered that, though I go back and forth on what I think adalia's alignment even was. But I don't really have him linked in my mind to anyone else other than maybe Ix.

I do have a very hard time squaring Trent & yogs as teammates in my mind, however. So if we're moving to Trent, I think at that point we have to acknowledge we're really clearly in 2 squad territory. Which maybe we should be.

But I find it curious both Ix and Krypsyn voted on Trent without actually commenting on that issue. Do they really think yogs was just distancing from Trent/Leonard when he proposed running leonard/Trent in sequence on D3? Or are they all in on 2 teams?

If trent isn't scum, my alternative theory is neutral survivor - he's been on a lot of wagons very early, and not always with much reason as for why. I'll have to re-read, but IIRC he has pretty much been on every meaningful wagon this game at least once if not multiple times.

I tend to be skeptical that jailers are mussing with the flips, but then I don't really know what role would. Any chance someone is going to flip "Corrupt PR agent"? Eh, maybe.
Posted November 30, 2015
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bler144: But I find it curious both Ix and Krypsyn voted on Trent without actually commenting on that issue.
Well, I can't speak for Ixamyakxim, but for myself:

Heh.
Posted November 30, 2015
Checking in. On a quick read, it looks like we're at two candidates for today as well. Interesting.

While I'm sad that I can't take credit for nailing Scum Yog, I am glad to see I was right about him. Assuming his flip was correct. -.-
Yog, if someone did screw with your flip and you actually were town, then I'm sorry (a little bit).

What does Yog's flip mean? If there is one scum team, then either they have 5+ people (if Adalia was scum), Adalia wasn't scum (which allows for a 4 man team), or people are flipping as scum when they shouldn't. Also interesting that Yog wasn't janitored; not sure what THAT might mean, since we've only seen Mafia Jailers flip up since the most recently cleaned NK. Flub's idea abou a redirect may have some merit.
Posted November 30, 2015
After sleeping on it for a good number of hours I am going to go ahead and
vote trent
The reason for this is because bler brought up an interesting point about the wagons.
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bler144: Trent made the swap, whether by being the hammer or some magic of getting on/off/on/off/on adalia's wagon or something entirely unrelated. Why? If scum Trent and adalia were teammates, why not let him flip scum and take credit via the bus. If scum Trent thinks adalia is neutral, again why attract attention vs. just taking credit for hammering anti-town neutral?
Those are amazing questions that should be answered one way or another.
If I am to take all the people I have listed in my wagon analysis, out of all of them Krypsyn, drealmer, cristingale, and Ixam are cut some slack because they were on all the lynch wagons, including the one that seems to have been more genuine, thus scrutiny against them is low. The data is not there to indicate any of them. However, when I look at the lynch wagons for the first 2 days, both of the flips are unreliable and trent seems to have been the only one on both of them and not on the third day lynch wagon. Interestingly enough he has been hopping wagons without much reason, or at least without much reason in my book. Ix is a tempting candidate (though maybe only #3 or lower for me), but I am way more interested in uncovering who's messing with the flips than going on a whim, and a pretty weak gut feeling to lynch Ix. I have also changed my mind about drealmer. No drealmer for me today. Data does not indicate he is the one messing with wagons, or at least not the data we have. Just hoping it is genuine and not bogus.
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionForum Mafia #32: Booze, Blood and Bullets: The Prohibition(1735 posts)(1735 posts)
(1735 posts)