This is in Leonard's flip "Apparently he was corrupted by the Mafia"

Well, that sucked but was also fantastic at the same time LOL. I was totally drinking the yog koolaid. I'm also making (and remaking) a few assumptions.

yog flipped jailer, as did leonard. I was wrong before when I stated I thought it insane that there could be as many as three jailer / blockers. I also am now on board with the idea of there being two scum teams and NOT a problem with yogs / leonards flips.

I'm making this assumption because it seems "too much" for there to be a mechanic in play that gives a bad flip WITH a role. I could be wrong.

That said:

Vote Trenton

That wagon split HARD yesterday when trenton was brought up and I'm inclined to believe yog was hunting scum - the OTHER scum. And the wagons split over those lines, with a few townies swept up in it. Trenton also said something a few days ago that really caught my attention:

Trenton makes a weak stretch of a "theory" that is highly improbably and ridiculous (that night kills can fail) THAT WE ACTUALLY ALREADY KNOW IS TRUE... only trenton didn't come up with his "theory" from what we all already knew - he reached that conclusion from his own information on his night killing. *drops mic* He also was always off leonard at the exact moments when we really could have pushed on leonard earlier. Scum.

Exactly where did I say anything about night kills failing? I missed the point in the OP that said prodded people are more killable, but it says nothing about night kills failing. As with yogs and his "trust no flips", before we had any reason to think that, you seem to have knowledge the rest of us don't, as in night kills can fail. This would support the two scum team theory you and yogs have if one team's night kill failed each night. Two scum teams also explains why there are two mafia jailers. Thanks for verifying that there are two scum teams and that only one team can kill each night.

You are also trying to make what yogs was doing seem as if he was hunting scum, no he was keeping Krypsyn happy by going after Leonard. Bonus for yogs in that Leonard was scum as it made yogs looks more town. I think you are grasping at straws now, trying to pin a weak theory on me because yogs and Krypsyn said they would go after me today.

Vote Ixamyakxim

End Day Wagon(s) Analysis:

Bolded portions indicate the person is dead.

Day 1:
P1na: (first vote) Krypsyn, trentonlf, yogsloth, drealmer7, Ixamyakxim, dedoporno, bler144, cristigale, adaliabooks (hammer)

Lynch flavor:
During the Day the discussion got more and more heated. First many suspected yogsloth, but then everyone turned on P1na. I know you're up to no good! someone called. Yes, look at him! He looks guilty! He was surely the one who killed Quad!
P1na protested to no avail. For a moment it looked as if no one wanted to be the one to string him up, but still his fate was sealed. Finally adaliabooks had had enough. "Let's finish this!" he said and threw a rope over a beam in the council hall. He had to do this twice, because he missed the beam on the first attempt. Then everything went quickly. Adalia put the noose around P1na's neck, while the others held him down. Then P1na was stood on a chair, the rope was fastened and adalia kicked the chair away. P1na struggled and choked - but after a while and lots of noise finally stopped moving and breathing. A quick investigation of his body and belongings turned out:

He was Jakob Torelli, Mafia Thug. He had no special powers, apart from dying for his team, apparently.

Note the apparently.
Conclusion: It is possible and likely someone tempered with the flip.

Day 2:
adalia : (first vote) drealmer, yogsloth, cristigale, Krypsyn, flubb, Ixamyakxim, HSL, trentonlf (hammer)

Lynch flavor:
The discussion finally comes to a close. Trentonlf, who had given adalia some more time to discuss, finally has had enough. While yogsloth is already frothing at the mouth out of frustration. With a firm voice trent says to adalia: "Adaliabooks, with the power of the majority of all assembled councilmen, I hereby condemn you to the death by hanging."
As before, a rope is thrown over the beam, a chair is placed under adalia, who stands on tiptoes on the chair to delay the inevitable. But then trent kicks the chair away and adaliabooks is swinging on the rope, the noose tightening inescapably. When he finally stops struggling and has no pulse, you take him down and investigate him. And the results are:

adaliabooks is dead - he was Robert Johnson, Town Vanilla - his only power was to die for his team.


Notes: The flip is entirely contradictory to adalia's claim. Furthermore, based on claimed blocks, adalia claimed to have received a PM stating that he was blocked. This is indication that he had a power role. Thus, vanilla is impossible.
Conclusion: Someone definitely tempered with the flip.

People on both wagons: yogsloth, drealmer, trentonlf, cristingale, Ixamyakxim, Krypsyn

Day 3:
Leonard: (first vote) Krypsyn, yogsloth, Ixamyakxim, dedoporno, cristigale, drealmer, HijacK (hammer)
Yogsloth: Bookwyrm, trentonlf, bler144, flubbucket, leonard

Lynch flavor:
After a long staring contest, HijacK has finally had enough. "Let's end this!" he shouts. "Leonard, I accuse you of being in the pockets of the Mob! Seize him!"
And the others grab Leonard while HijacK fastens the noose of the trusty lynching rope around his neck. Then Leonard is forced to stand upon a chair. "Any last words?" HijacK asks and kicks the chair away before Leonard can answer. "Aaarglgarglgll...!" screams Leonard while he is choked to death. "Thought so." HijacK says. "Let's see what we got here."
Leonards belongings are searched, and indeed, you find evidence incriminating him. Apparently he was corrupted by the Mafia and you have finally lynched one of those bastards killing you at night. Perhaps you can sleep more soundly tonight and come to a decision tomorrow.

Leonard is dead - he was Luca Bertossi, Mafia Jailer, his power was to lock someone in at night, protecting him but also preventing him from doing anything.

Note the apparently. It indicates that the flip may have been tampered with. However, right in the same sentence we have "you have finally lynched one of those bastards killing you at night."
If we only just lynched one of those bastards that kill us at night, why the hell did P1na flip scum? Why did adalia flip town when he obviously wasn't?

People on all 3 wagons: Krypsyn, yogsloth, drealmer, cristingale, Ixam.
Third wagons seems to indicate the flip was more genuine, however that is open for debate. One still has to question those people for one reason though. How come they are always on the lynch wagon? Always. Some of them may be excused by meta, but still, I'm sensing a pattern.

People not on this said third wagon:
Bookwyrm, trentonlf, bler144, flubbucket, leonard

Leonard is dead, so he's no longer under scrutiny.
Flubbucket has been on 2 loosely contradicting wagons, thus I have him lower on the suspicion list.
Bler has behaved fairly townish and has been on 2 loosely contradicting wagons, thus I deem it right he does not deserve scrutiny.
Booky has been on none of the wagons that have achieved a lynch, thus correlating him with the messed flips makes little sense unless we all dabble in bizarro world assumptions that he may impact flips if he's not on the wagon, but this implies also believing this theory. No information to indicate that, thus he is not under scrutiny. However, the failure to ever be on a lynch wagon has to be noted.
trent has been on 2 lynch flips that seem to be guaranteed folly, although I will admit purely based on analysis of the flavor. Both Leonard and Yogy flipped scum. Unlikely they were scumbuddies. Trent jumped on yog when yog insinuated if Leonard flips scum trent may be scum as well. I don't see the correlation much, but the possibility is there. trent deserves scrutiny. One more noteworthy thing is a lack of involvement in discussion when you compare him to previous games.

Overall, people whom I deem suspicious right now:
Krypsyn, drealmer, cristingale, Ixam. (due to general vote patterns)
trent (due to inconsistencies in lynches with flips and his presence on the wagons)

I want everyone to take a moment and read my analysis and give me your feedback. It is my first wagon analysis and I hope I did a good job. A vote shall come soon. I am eager to wait for your points. I want to re-evaluate some in-game interactions before I commit to a vote.

It implies that kills can fail, if you want to get technical. Here's a wild speculation. Someone gets prodded. He is conveniently protected or jailed. But whomever is doing the kill still goes for the prodded person. Due to the prod, the protection/jail fails. Basic critical thinking. I have serious doubts the majority of the players haven't thought of this scenario already, especially with the current information on the table of multiple jailers

Rather OMGUS. Similar vote pattern to when yog accused you of something.

There is nothing there to indicate a night kill can fail. If there is a mafia game where night kills can fail where the person doing the killing was not blocked or the person being targeted was not protected it would be an unfair game so I highly doubt any night kills would fail just because. As I said to Ix I would guess there are two scum teams and they alternate nights on killing. Maybe if one of the teams chooses to go after someone who was prodded they get priority. I have no idea, but Ix seems to have some clue to it.

And my whole point to Ix was I never said anything about night kills failing, he pulled that out of thin air. There is no OMGUS involved in my vote on him, it's as I said he seems to have knowledge others don't just like yogs did. Only people who have knowledge like that is scum.

LOL ;) I love how you're framing this.

If you truly don't think night kills can fail, do explain to me what "more killable" or "a bonus of some sort to kill" or "a higher chance to die" means to you.

And bler you too huh? I always thought it was Bookwyrm.

Ah, I see what you mean. No. I didn't mean to say most suspicious. I meant voting patterns were worth noting. Mistake on my part. I rushed my post.

Yeah, I get it. It is not a bad point, depending on a person's underlying assumptions.

While we are on assumptions, I made one too in my reply to you. It is related to why I am voting for trentonlf, actually.

Yes, that is true, but I wasn't talking about kill fails. However, I do wonder about something. It is not stated in the rules, and I doubt Lift would clarify, but what if a prodded person attempts an NK? Interesting thought.

Still acquiring notes.

Me too what? Thought what was Wyrm?

Not sure what your implication is here. I've had you as suspicious since D1. If you'll recall my top 3 on D1 was P1na/Leonard/you, and on D2 was adalia/Leonard/you.

I'll go back and actually compile it at some point soon here, hopefully tonight when I'm on the other computer.

In your post above I do find it a bit amusing that you, of all people, are going at Trent for switching from Leonard to adalia. You flopped over and as I recall you noted several times you didn't even find adalia suspicious. Am I misrepresenting that, or would you care to explain?

While I agree Trent is suspicious (fair to say he's my #2), you're way out in front in my opinion.

And yet you've bailed on all those (scum?) wagons except the Day One lynch of P1na.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say if we lynch trent and he's scum, you won't be on that one either.

You'll also remember trenton's vote on adalia came only AFTER HSL cast what would have been the "final" vote if dedo had unvoted. In other words, because the lynch was already sealed and it was better for him to be on board than off.

Overall I think it's a good analysis. Even in a 2-team scenario, which at this point still isn't really proven, it's really hard to see Krypsyn. He wasn't just _on_ those wagons, he was the first on both P1na and Leonard. He didn't do a lot to move Leonard's wagon, but it wouldn't have existed without him.

On P1na's flip (and Leonard's) I worry you're getting a bit deep in the weeds on what might just be flavor (which I know is probably amusing coming from me). On p1na's in particular, note that the "apparently" follows the sentence about his seeming lack of powers, not his alignment. I.e. there's a difference between "He's scum vanilla, apparently has no powers" and "He's apparently scum vanilla, and has no powers."

I suspect there's some value in the flavor, but I think that's chopping it down a bit too finely.

I don't get your second argument at all. He cast a vote that counted in place of one that didn't and ...what?

On the first point, on D2 I was only not on the wagon because I did the LAMIST unvote at HSL's request, went for dinner, and the hammer had already come before I came back(1001/1049). I don't see how you're spinning that as "bailing" at all.

Totally terrible argument.

In the case of D3, that one is a little fuzzier, I'll grant you that. At least based on what I said, I was on yogs at least until it was clear whether we could get another vote to press him to claim pre-hammer. There was no deadline, plus the holiday, so no rush. Since Hijack hammered, you'll never get to know if I would've or not.

In terms of Trent, I'll make you a deal - if we lynch you today, at least at this point he looks like the best choice for tomorrow. Or if you claim and there's reason to not vote you today, I may well vote him today.