(Note: I'm not ruling out the possibility that these jails are actually role blocks. I'm just going to say jailers for brevity, and because that is the claim on the table.)

That's an interesting statement; I don't see how a counter claim could have made Leonard out to be a liar. Is there any reason that two jailers can't target the same (third) person? Is there any reason to conclude that a jailed target knows how many jailers targeted them?

As I recall, Hijack claimed being blocked before Leonard claimed. That was one of the reasons against Leonard: that the entire claim was already laid out before he made it. The only assumption he'd have to make is that Hijack was being truthful about being jailed, and if Hijack was lying about being jailed then Hijack certainly wasn't going to call Leonard out on the lie.

That is a question for you, after you said "Jailer #2 may have been HSL but we may only be able to confirm that for Tomorrow."

Because he had been prodded so seemed likely to die.

He must not. Otherwise the whole thing falls apart.

About his Day One jailing? I didn't have any reason not to. I thought we had at least 2 jailings on day one, and for some reason I was thinking someone even seemed to imply there was a third potential jailer / blocker (there's no way there would have been, but it was one more that leonard "could be").

I didn't think leonard was taking too much of a risk claiming jailer because there was the potential for there to be "so many" - and that an actual town jailer wouldn't always want to jump up and down to out themselves.

Dedo you asked me about a counterclaim to leonard - I feel comfortable outing that person now because he's already hanging out in the wind LOL. I THOUGHT (and can still see a situation where it's possible) yog counterclaimed when he screamed multiple times to lynch leonard after leonard claimed town jailer.

Now when yog today said "If leonard flips town jailer" ... "he's got nothing" that sort of put a damper on my theory - but only slightly. Yog still said "flips" and not "is." The other thing that makes me rethink the claim I thought I saw is yog seems to have other abilities / knowledge (flip related) which makes being a pure jailer unlikely.

So for me it's less about believing hijack and leonard (one I have no read on beyond his slight nonsense posts and extreme lurking - so I guess that's a bit damning right there - now that I think about it, has he cast a vote? - the second I thought has been VERY scummy) and more about I've already sort of made my bed with what I believe from yog.

I don't think he's scummy (yog that is) and so far I'm on board with his lynches. adalia going crazy with the claim and then flipping vanilla sort of sealed it for me. I'm also a bit guilty of locking in early on a few people I found extremely scummy and it's sort of hurt my analysis / thoughts on some of the people that have flown under the radar.

Leonard is suddenly Town for you, eh? So if he flips "Mafia Jailer", and I was all over him to lynch him... that means I'm Scum? Is that going to be your agenda? Good luck with that.


I'm going to spend some time today typing up my massive "reveal" post. I'm going to save it to Word. Depending on how things go, I think the ideal would be for me to be able to drop it in after hammer but before nightfall. Some of you will be delighted. Some more than others.

Wish me luck.

So scum get PM'd if they are jailed, while town do not?

-----

I think I'd kind of like to hear what you've got so far. Please forgive me if "I'm working up a theory, and oh btw, what's your theory on the guy I'm building a theory on?" sounds a little bit suspicious to me.

-----

Hijack was prodded, Drealmer was prodded, and both were declared more vulnerable on their respective nights.

You claim to have jailed Hijack to protect him, yet Drealmer apparently didn't need it. I was asking why you felt Hijack warranted the protection, whereas Drealmer did not. What prompted the shift in ability usage?

Oh, just to clarify in case dedo you were making this assumption. My quote above was in reference to TODAY. Leonard claimed to jail flub, flub denied it and no one came out and said they were jailed.

So I'm thinking there were no jails, or those jailed don't want to come out and announce it.

Ugh, I'm not in the right head-space for this to be fun right now. I'm going to go putz around the forums and try and make myself happy rather than frustrated here (I'm mostly frustrated because I'm really confused and don't feel like anyone is helping. Plus life shit affecting me.)

And actually, stepping back a little from it all just now, without actually trying to analyze it, it looks to me like yogsloth is the ONLY one trying to be helpful. Should I find that scary? I probably would if I'd played more games with him, and of course I know it is possible he could be scum leading us towards the cliff's edge, but my gut feeling right now says otherwise. (actually one thing I've learned so far playing this game is that my gut is usually better than my analysis!! though certainly not fool-proof to any degree, just, better than my analysis, which isn't saying much!)

It feels to me like he knows people are going to doubt him regardless if he is town or not, and his table-flipping screaming frustration yesterday comes from that because he is actually town ACTUALLY trying to help us but feeling like people don't believe him based on previous games and how he tends to play, which, of course is reasonable and something to be aware of, but, if you theorize from a position assuming he IS town, it begins to look like others are trying to take advantage of the doubt that yogsloth's general play-style generates, rather than any real reasons.

MAYBE they didn't kill yogsloth last night because they figured they'd get him lynched today with how he's played it so far?

ARGH. That is just rambling thoughts typed free-flowing-thought. No analysis or reflection. I am stepping away until I'm in a better mood.

ARGRGGGHHH!

Is that your thought? Or are you trying to make it look like I posed that thought? NO, I don't think that at all and not sure how you get that from what I said (other than you being scummy and trying to pull shady-scumminess.) I simply said what I said to point out the difference between the instances, if I had more thoughts to follow from that statement, you'd have heard them.

Someone actually wants to hear what I have to say about the situation? That in and of itself seems suspicious to me! HAHA! Seriously though, I'll gladly share it all as soon as it is all ready. You should be aware that I will do that. Being like this towards me just makes you look more scummy to me. I can't think clearly at the moment and you pushing me to share my unclarified thoughts is not cool. Like you're saying "yeah! give us your jumbled thoughts and crazy theories so we can use them against you!"

yeah, I'M the suspicious one...*sarcasm*

You don't think my point to flub is valid? You don't think I'm right to poke him a bit about his thoughts on yogs?

Seriously though, I'm not having fun right now, I'm fucking pissy and not thinking clearly and am going to step away. Judge me for it if you like, I don't fucking care atm.

Why no one bashed me for this?! It's supposed to read "your", not "you're". Self grammar nazied!

Unpredictability, if I always jailed the prodded people it would be rather useless no? Mafia would know who I was protecting, and thus not attack them, thus rendering my protection useless. But I wasn't really using it for protection tonight anyway, I was going more for role blocking.

Let's be fair - I look pretty helpful even when I'm Scum, lol. The only difference is I'm "helping" slaughter Townies one after the other. :)

_____


Everybody has checked in. Once again, it appears there are no more night actions to report.

Shall we stare at each other in contemplative silence?

Just as a heads-up, I'm going to be at least half-useless today. Late to bed, roommate was up thumping around at 3;30 for god knows what reason and then I couldn't fall back asleep til after 5, only to be woken up again at 5:30 by some loud crash outside (thankfully not my car).

Couple observations:
1) While a lot of what Leonard says hasn't been exactly clarifying, assuming he's telling the truth at least on role/action, I think he may have hinted at (#1100) what's going on with at least part of the blocks. Not entirely sure what to make of that yet, since it would mean we have no idea how many jailer/blockers are still on the table.

Remember waaaay back someone asked adalia/Hijack about the flavor of their PM and why they spent the whole night trying to pick the lock? Maybe Flub just never noted the lock. He has a bladder of steel. But at least possible there is a second blocker in play and that that target likewise just doesn't know it.

There are plenty of other reasons to lynch Leonard whether or not he's telling the truth about role/action. But I'd still really prefer yogs post his theory before we hammer rather than after. Especially since "after" he could easily fake just by conveniently being offline.

Leonard's already been to the brink, so presumably pushing him back there isn't going to add any new clarity other than the flip which may or may not bring clarity either. While my read says he likely flips scum, it still seems a bit risky to go ahead and potentially kill a town power role if someone (who is already quite visible) has info that would help clarify before we do that.

2) I took a look at the two morning flips and noticed something...maybe useless flavor maybe interesting info.

JMich was seemingly killed in his bed - sheets changed and everything.
HSL was killed in his doorway.

Does it tell us something? IDK, but it's worth keeping in mind. When I started being skeptical of yogs as coroner, I did take a re-read of JMich on the off-hand he'd breadcrumbed something that got him killed but I'm terrible at reading breadcrumbs.


I'm not certain about who is winning. Felt like a modest lead D2 but yogs' prediction followed by adalia's flip threw most of that in the air. So even if he denies he has the keys to the game, he clearly has something that no doubt he's figured out how to use to his advantage, whether or not his interests align with town's.

Really uncomfortable about that. The only thing that is comforting, actually, is that Krypsyn seems to understand what he's doing, and while I can't rule it out, I don't think they're scum-buddies.

I agree with you that, at this point, paranoia about yogs now seems the reasonable approach - hell, that was my theory out of the gates D1. At the least this seems to be shaping up to be Trent vs. Yogs tomorrow and I'm wary of just assuming we should glom on with yogs regardless of what Leonard flips.

At the least I'm wary of giving yogs any more rope to work with. Even the fairly superficial question I asked him he gave a non-answer to. Yes, baseballs/seams, great. I think he was telling the truth about feeling boxed in, but...I'm not sure giving him more space helps town.

Mostly I'm debating whether to go ahead and vote Leonard and give yogs another day, vs. not. I don't know that he needs to full claim, but...something other than "trust me" would be nice, since, y'know, I've learned from experience not to trust him.

(Emphasis mine) Why not? Do we have any evidence for this, beyond "It is a weird thing to be in the setup"?

I don't know how many jailers are in the setup. I'm asking whether there is any reason to conclude 3 potential RBs/jailers can't be the case. As above, is there any evidence beyond "seems weird to have that many"?

Maybe I'm just acclimated to high numbers of role block type abilities, but why does 2 seem all that high? Under other circumstances, I might agree that 3 would be stretching credibility, but my credibility checker overloaded while processing Adalia's flip.

If I were a jailer and targeted Hijack, and then I hear someone else claim to have blocked him, I'd think "Lets see what additional verification comes out". As I mentioned previously, I see no reason to assume that two jailers/blockers can't target the same person.

I'm just saying that Leonard was at no risk of Hijack calling Leonard out as a liar based on that claimed block. Likewise, counter claims about blocking wouldn't work as a lie detector unless game-specific circumstances indicate otherwise, and I haven't seen any such indicators yet in this game.

Sadly, I don't always have to "play" dumb. I'm afraid this is one of those times. :(

I agree that maybe HSL was Jailer #2, but I don't see how we'll be able to confirm that. Or are you pointing me back toward the idea of Yog being a coroner, or whatever the heck he is?

Ah. My original line ("So uh...do you think you're probably scum, since you survived the night in spite of being prodded? ;)") was meant to be a joke, based on your suspicion of Hijack after he survived Night 1. The winky face was meant to indicate such.

If you hadn't already said you were already working on a post about Yog, then I wouldn't have questioned you asking Flub about Yog. Within the context of "I'm working on a post about player X", asking someone else "So, what do you think about player X" raises the question of whether the questioner is hoping to do some "What he said".

If you need a break, then take a break. Generally speaking, you don't need our permission unless you plan to be gone long enough that the "Not Posting" guidelines become an issue.

I could go for some LAY, myself. ;)

Day One

Day Two

If I had information which would help town catch scum I would share it. Now if I withhold that information saying I'll share it later, the question is why.

Perhaps I need to see what everybody else has to say before I can make my story believable.


If I were a cop I might hold off as long as I could in order to have a considerable amount of info to share.

The truth needs to fear nothing so what's the reason for withholding??