I keep rewriting this post noting points I want to talk about (this is probably the third time).

But at the end of the day, today I don't mind the speed lynch and I don't want to be the one to distract from lynching one of my own top candidates.

Vote Leonard

IF we want to extend today a bit and muse over a few things, I'll pull back. If we don't and just want to jump into the next day, sans leonard and yet still debating the weird stuff that's gone on today, I'm okay with that too.

So...I don't get it. Were you jailing flub to protect him? And if so, why? Or were you blocking him? And if so, why? I get the WIFOM drealmer thing but that doesn't seem a full explanation for landing on flub as the alternate.

Flub is saying he got no PM. Any theories on why?
Did you get a PM? If so, what'd it say (paraphrasing, obvs)?

At this point it seems hard to get around that conclusion.

The questions in my mind are:
1) How did yogs know about the day flips in advance? Very curious.
2) Why, given the possibility of flips being false was he sure P1na's was correct?
3) Why are we sure we'll get anything from Leonard's flip?

And how the heck do the blocks/jails match up? I don't know - it would seem either we have the lead and have nothing to lose by stopping to talk it out, or things are a mess...in which case I'd like to know what's going on. A number of players behaving oddly, I'd say, though Leonard does seem to take the cake.

So hard to argue against lynching Leonard, but really leery of how much rope we're giving yogs here and why we seem to be rushing rather than sorting out. Can't tell if everybody else either knows something I don't, or...

Did no one eat a block/jail last night? How did we go from 2 to 0? Maybe drealmer will come to the table with something, who knows.

As you said adalia's flip was clearly false so it seems no flip is secure. The questions that would be nice to get answered is:

1. Are all flips false?
2. Are some or all of them tampered by someone?
3. Is it the same person/people who mess with both night and day flips?



I'd like a bit more time, please.



+

Now I'd really like to know where that jailing went. I'm somewhat sure Leonard is scum and a Jailer, too, since no one counter claimed to have jailed HijacK.

The jailing adalia claimed lost some of it's credibility for me since he certainly wasn't Town and may have been Leonard's scum buddy and knew how the jailing works so he could have faked his own one (if there really is a second jailing still going it would be nice to hear from last night's jailbird).

Unless HijacK is also their buddy which I currently don't have reasons to believe, at least one jailer in existence should be confirmed. That Jailer #1 is either Leonard or JMich - otherwise we have even more liars than expected here.

I don't really see JMich being the jailer since it would have been an extremely risky move for Leonard to just go and claim like that. And if he actually did and hit jackpot - damn! Doubtful.

So, Leonard is Jailer. Quite likely scum. Why would he claim to have jailed a person he didn't jail? He is at the point where lying about such things no longer works in his favour. So why would he lie?

Jailer #2 may have been HSL but we may only be able to confirm that for Tomorrow.

I decided to use the jail more offensively tonight, so I blocked flub. As to why no PM, you think a little about it and I think you'll see the answer.

Why jail Hijack on N1?

What do YOU think is happening, Bler? Do you think we're in the lead?

I've already spoken about how I think Yog is setting up to kill us all, but no one else seems to care. Lets hear some other theories to replace that.

I'm afraid you've lost me here. Where did Leonard take the risk on claiming a jailing?

Also, how would we confirm whether or not HSL was a jailer?

I've gone back over yogs's posts and I see where you are coming from. I especially don't like how yogs asks everyone to not table anymore discussion until after Leonard is lynched and we see his flip. Why? It seems as if he is rushing this lynch, and there's no reason too.

If Leonard really is the town jailer and he flips scum I wouldn't be surprised if yogs will then say we can trust the flip. yogs is saying the only flip we can trust so far is the initial one about P1na who flipped scum, yet never gives a reason for as to why. He just says no flips can be trusted but that one. Both night kills have been with no flip too so it seems as if someone is tampering with all the flips in the game so we don't know anything about anyone, but if we are to believe yogs then P1na's flip was legit for some reason. Makes me wonder if P1na really was town vanilla like he claimed.

adaliabooks flip made no sense, and I would bet he really was a neutral. But, since yogs said we can trust P1na's flip no one is questioning it. I think you are right and yogs is setting this all up.

Unvote Leonard03
Vote yogsloth

Here I am, catching up. Sorry I didn't get to yesterday, I had about 30 minutes on here sometime after the day had started again, was able to do some reading of the posts and even started typing a post, and then life interrupted and I haven't been able to get back. Give me a little time. Nothing to report though, except, I'm still alive!

Maybe flub is his scum-buddy and he was counting on his scum-buddy to get a PM about it so they could "cover" it, but that's not how it works maybe? And so now he's out on a limb going "GDIT flub! why didn't you say you got one?!" Just reaching theories. More to come, including start of the day flavor from me and some yogsloth thoughts too (which at this point I think are most important to be contemplating), but, I thought I'd throw that out there quickly.

Gotcha - I won't pull my vote back because we've slowed down a bit but while we're on discussion...

Yeah, one of the big parts of my post I kept rewriting was WHERE THE F DID ALL THE JAILERS / BLOCKERS GO! I guess attrition but right now I doubt there's even one in play (I... don't think I believe leonard - I suppose we could have people on both sides that were jailed and don't want to say but at this point I'm almost inclined to believe no one was jailed).

Also, totally bummed about P1na. I was super excited thinking we started this thing off lynching scum. Now, for all we know we haven't even gotten a single one. I'm hoping we have (another "I'm inclined to think" - I'm leaning more toward adalia as scum than a neutral though I guess that could be wishful thinking).

If I were to ask yog to give anything today, I think it would have to do with why he feels better about the P1na flip.

You're breaking my heart trenton.

So uh...do you think you're probably scum, since you survived the night in spite of being prodded? ;)

Where's your vote?

The difference between me and hijack though is that he got a PM about being jailed (so he says), I did not.

Can you be helpful AT ALL, ever? Ever? WHY do you think it is terrible? How does that not make sense in a certain light? I'm actually asking! You should be aware I'm relatively new to the game and still figuring it all out. It'd be nice if you helped rather than just give seemingly baseless criticism. Without reasoning to me it looks like I nailed it and you are also their scum-buddy going "NOOOOO, HE FIGURED IT OUT!"

All you do flub is nothing contributory, ever, as far as I see. Please, share some of your thoughts, that'd be great, otherwise, go shush and be a lurker like always. Your type of lurking is the worst, coming in just to give people shit for their ideas while posing none of your own.

Sorry, just not in a very good mood today so people are going to piss me off fast.

Back to working on my yogs situation analysis post! You know, because I'm actually at least TRYING to come up with some things that make sense.

HijacK said he was blocked (later we figured it may have been jailing). Leonard claimed that jailing. If he didn't really do it but another person did it they would have most likely counter claimed because that proves Leonard is a liar. He either took that risk or he knew there won't be a counter claim. The knowing part includes him being buddy with HijacK, knowing JMich was the original Jailer of HijacK (somewhat hard to believe as it requires a bunch of assumptions/coincidences to work out as expected) or telling the truth about it (regardless of alignment).

Is that a question for Yogs?



Wut?! You are aware scum buddies are allowed to converse at least during night-time, right? Why would Leonard rely on flub getting the actual PM? They can just go ahead and plan it out. If they are buddies they don't even need to actually do it unless they are scared of tracker/watcher calling the out on it. So yeah, uhm... Wut?!



Then the question is do you believe HijacK?

That I am at least aware of, yes! But thanks for making sure a newish player like me is aware of certain things others may take for granted.

Maybe they just assumed he would get the PM is what I'm saying, so they didn't take the time to figure out how to play it because they figured they'd just play it from the real-PM rather than some made-up stuff that would waste their time in scum-chat?

The problem with the idea of "not needing to actually do it" is that leonard already claimed jailer, and so we are expecting a jail target from him today, and a confirmation of the jailing from the target. Ok, maybe I should simply ask a question instead of pose a theory:

IF leonard and flub are scum-buddies, and IF leonard jailed flub and was counting on there being a PM for the confirmation, is it possible that there was no PM about it because they are scum-buddies? and if that is true, I guess the question is, why wouldn't flub just lie and say "yeah, I got a PM about a leonard block." To throw leonard under the bus to avoid suspicion of his own? Just asking.

If leonard didn't jail flub, and is lying, well, that just doesn't make sense for him to do, does it? I'm just trying to make the things make sense in some way, and to me, that is a way it would make sense. If I am wrong about that, I would very much like to hear why.

With those inconsistancies I am comfortable voting leonard to see what is what (maybe!? damn confusing flips), but, yeah, back to my yogsloth theorizing... Flub, do you have yogsloth theorizing you'd like to share? In your vast experience compared to mine, it'd probably prove more valuable, I'd love to hear it.

I have to say my brain is a bit mushy at the moment and maybe I shouldn't be theorizing in this state.