What do you find more plausible. Agent and flub lying, or a third blocker being around?

My ability is to jail. The intent of jailing RWare was to protect, not to block. Casuals. That's why I'm the Master Strategist.

Role got checked, so pretty much confirmed town for me + the fact that he indicated of so much he has extra abilities just to entice an NK.

I was blocked.

Never mind. Flub's block or whatever it was has been confirmed. Vitek claimed being blocked. No one to account for Vitek's block. This game... I think QUAD just likes to troll us. It's yogy's fault. Must be because of that troll feces from the ring of the smelly lords game.

Yes, but the confirmable part is the role block, not the protection.

Hear, hear, good Sir. I'll just keep my vote in my pocket until I'm 100% certain of an intruder.

But apparently there was, according to Mr. Trentonlf.

Good point.

Hmmm...

I assume you mean me?

I told the assembled my stats once before, but I can do it again without too much difficulty. I have 9 INT.

To me, it's clear that there are three roleblockers and only random chance that we didn't have four roleblocks last Night. It's unfortunate that we haven't been able to clear anyone, but it's certainly a wealth of information. If only we could untangle it.

Agreed, but don't ask me to do it.

I'd fight you on the basis of that insinuation, but...

It seems that we have had most of our night actions claimed, with the exception of our *ahem* Health and Safety Inspector, unless Captain RWarehall wishes to claim a use of his mysterious second power.

This sounds like an unfounded assumption to me. Scum want to deprive town of the information to make informed, successful lynches. Crises are a risk for town, but they do provide town with information; as a bonus, they provide avenues of discussion as well. As an example, lets see what we can glean with this particular failure (which didn't cost us a townie!).

I currently view the crises as sort of like an early lynch: there is risk involved, but there are rewards to be gained as well.

At first glance, this sounds absurd. I thought about it some more, and it still sounds absurd. How in the world will a lynch successfully distract from the people going on a crisis or from the results of the crisis event?

If you were so concerned about attention being distracted from the crisis team, can you link to where you were working on scrutinizing the crisis team members?

The only way for scum to be (relatively) certain that the crisis team would fail would be if there was at least one scum on it. Do you think it is useful to attempt to narrow down who might be scum? Did you think RW's list of confirmed townies was accurate? Do you think so now?

Did you forget what drealmer claimed his ability does?

On the surface, this power sounds plausible. There doesn't seem to be a publicly identified way to verify your claim (except killing you to check your alignment), but it does sound plausible.

I think I more or less agree with all of Yog's bullet points here.

How would you compare that bailiff remark with this one? Other than that, the breadcrumbs do look legit.

While a crisis may end up costing town, it can be useful. It does, however, require people to think, so perhaps I'm wrong on that point. Maybe it is all risk, with no reward. Why do we risk lynching townies, again?

In order to avoid a crisis, it appears a lynch must be reached within 3-4 real life days of Day break. If you are convinced that crises are so very bad, then may I suggest you work harder to unify people for a lynch? The clock is ticking.

You accuse me of wanting a crisis, and yet my vote was placed days before the announcement (unlike JMich), it was on a wagon that had potential to move (unlike drealmer and Hijack), and it was even on a candidate that looked scummy to me (which was presumably true for every townie). Even though I am interested in seeing how crises work, and figuring out how to make them work for us, my vote was in position to try and avert a crisis (assuming we can do that).

This statement implies that you are pretty convinced Trent is town. Is this true?

Enh. I decided to continue working towards getting a lynch to happen to someone I thought scummy, rather than sitting around waiting for the crisis to resolve, and then waiting for a nightfall deadline to be announced, and then waiting for the deadline to get close, and then complaining about the No Lynch because nobody did anything.

But hey, if you guys want me to lay back and watch, I can do that. My D2 character isn't going to play herself.

Misinterpretation. Yog has repeatedly called for people to vote and otherwise be active. His complaint is for people voting without giving any sort of reasoning why, sort of like Carrion Crow just did. That kind of voting deprives us of a chance to analyze why someone voted.

So far, only Trent claims to have seen the penalty (and he claims to have been the recipient). Yogsloth's statement stands; if only trent saw/felt it, then Yog didn't.

By my count, we've apparently got 3 roleblockers, and the only reason we didn't have 5 blocks last night was because one of the blockers blocked a jailer.

So, back for a bit after a very long but very fun family weekend.

First, non-game note: thanks for those that wished the boy well after he torn his finger apart. Two more visits to urgent care later, and the official verdict is no nerve damage, although it will probably be a while before he has full range of motion back… and it still looks gnarly as all hell. We said his Halloween costume was “Frankenfinger”! He even played his hockey game yesterday, and took home the hardhat as the player of the game. :)

Now, back to the game- I get the feeling if I actually busted my ass to do all the analysis I threated to do, probably nobody would really read it. It certainly seems like there is little stomach for the hardcore sleuthing at the moment… and granted, it’s not really my traditionally strongest suit anyway. I’ll still have to do it all for my own sanity and will probably publish it all anyhow, regardless of who cares.

For tonight, I’m going to content myself with only one real bit – since Wyrm has picked up three fast votes, I want to look at him. He was a player a re-read with interest over the loooong night, and while he’s certainly not the only one, for now the spotlight is on him. In particular, I want to look at how he was involved in Ix’s wagon.

First, here is his initial vote, putting him 2nd on the wagon, after my vote had seemingly been uselessly-placed for weeks:

A classic “no reason whatsoever” vote.

He’s asked to, ya know, provide at least an inkling of why he did it. Here’s what he came up with:

So Wyrm makes it clear he’s willing to push existing wagons to see what will roll. He “parks” his vote on Ix… but never removes it because later on mchack, Krypsyn, and Vitek all add on to it and suddenly he’s on the largest wagon.

And that’s when he got to work:

this whole post,
I noted this to myself at the time.. Wyrm had shifted from a passive “parking it” vote on the wagon to actively, player by player, attempting to shepherd it along. I recognize this because it is the exact same tactic I used to lynch Leonard back in #28. Wyrm and I have been accused of having similar thinking, so I just couldn’t help but notice. :)

So Wyrm:

You ready to use that claim you thought of now?

[pre-post edit as Wyrm posted while I was typing all this up]

Thank you sir – at least you’ll read it when the time comes. :)

Ya still gotta start talkin fast, though.

I still say only scum would want the crisis to happen, and you wanted it to happen. Post 1556 the same post where you make it very clear that it's no big deal for the crisis to happen because the worst thing that can occur is town loses power roles. Your vote was in place to lynch a townie, that's why you never moved it.

That remark from Krypsyn you are grasping at says "Before I go read my role PM", oh gee what could that mean. Did he just randomly throw a role out there trying to be funny before he even read him PM for the game, no way he was saying that right? Weak argument on your part there.

Yes the clock it ticking, and I'm sure once again your buddies will help to dilute the waters and prevent a lynch until after a crisis has occurred again so more damage can be done.

My hope is you get lynched before the next crisis occurs so we can avoid the whole crisis scenario. You have a smooth way of talking so I'm sure you will convince enough people to not lynch you until after the crisis happens, but maybe I'll be proven wrong and town can move on to winning this.

@RW if a crisis occurs today my stats are STR 8 FIN 4 INT 7, I received a +1 to all stats until the end of the day and I included that in the numbers.

And I wanted to post a reply to agent as well.

Oddly enough, wyrm did a fairly good job of it earlier, but I need to speak for myself on a few things, since he was so kind to dedicate an entire post to me:

Now, is that really what I said? I can’t tell if you’re being serious here. I’m fairly certain I’ve given lectures on the relative impossibility of being 100%. Vote, by all means, vote – just please do us a favor and give a bit of reasoning while you do it, eh?

Yes, which he posted after my initial post observing that we didn’t have an obvious penalty. Now we have one reported. File as appropriate.

Does the glove fit?

Thanks, just checking. Would still really like to hear from everyone else.

Sorry to hear it’s too much for you. You sure you want me to be the only one to try?

I have a huge entry for a case for Vitek/why I hold him most suspicious. I didn't want to overwhelm with it all. I think the most important thing is that he was the vote that I think put the most push on Ix's wagon, and I think he knew it would do that, especially after Ix had voted it himself, then come off it. I think Vitek was really counting on the tiredness of everyone for it to come to a conclusion at that point, and played a powerful point with that vote to get the lynch done on Ix, like he's been trying since early in the game. I think krypsyn knew that it was either Ix or Vitek to be scum and that the Ix flip would tell him either way and was banking on being alive to be able to tell (and was hating the long delay, too, so went on the Ix because he thought it was more likely to follow through than a Vitek lynch at that point, and would find the info valuable.) I also think Vitek realized this in krypsyn and is possible why krypsyn died at night. Vitek was threatened by krypsyn's experience, and wanted him gone because kryps had been hinting at his Vitek suspicion for a little bit here and there. I'll get more into Vitek analysis, a lot of it focused around Ix, if you all want. I have lots of links and stuff (:.

I agree that we can't tell which team it is to blame for the failed crisis event, if any. It sounds like it is MORE likely to have been the disabling team, since we did get through the patrols successfully, but, perhaps we could have gotten through there faster and given them more time, so it is impossible to tell, I agree. I wish we knew if it were sabotage or just a regular failure. I've said before, but, my INT is 8. I totally somehow missed reading the required stats in the first crisis event,, I wasn't just "trying to get on it", I thought it was an INT task because of the wording of flavor and got excited. Bad thing on my part, I know, but I quickly recanted my volunteering, and told that I had INT and not FIN and that I didn't want to be on it because of the mistake, that would have been disastrous! If I hadn't gotten clear, then it would have been accidental sabotage!! But no, INT is my stat. I am crew. Sorry you find me suspicious RW. If you think it was sabotage, ugh, it was 1 of 3 people: JMich, agentcarr16, or you. Mchack (who I investigated) and myself are clear of the sabotage. I KNOW this.

I didn't find out much useful from my investigations, and received no further information otherwise about the Crisis mission. If I had discovered that someone sabotaged, I would have declared so immediately and let you all know. I'll share what I did and why and what I think I learned from it/possibilities from it.

The reason I wasn't just outright sharing who I investigated and why is because I thought it was possible that that information might be more useful if I watched the actions of everyone and see how things went through the day a bit (also I didn't have time to enter my full analysis anyway.)

So. I was torn on who to investigate from the crisis. A failed mission, GAH. A lot of responsibility there on picking on who to investigate, because I figure it was sabotage too (at least more likely?) I felt stupid too for hammering the lynch and not being able to get feedback from you all on who to investigate. That was kind of dumb and sorry for it, I thought there'd be more time and wasn't thinking. Although it seems HijacK might have done the hammer anyway? ARGH. Anyway. I was surprised at the failure, and would like to know if it was actual sabotage or just a failed mission by chance regardless of sabotage. What do you people think? Sabotage or simple failure? Again, I feel like it is highly possible it was sabotage.

So, I thought perhaps the target that most people would have found most suspicious would be agentcarr16. I also thought of all the people on the crisis mission, that agentcarr16 probably felt the most suspected of the entire group. With this, I thought it was unlikely that, if he was an intruder, that he would try and sabotage it, fearing getting found out because of the suspicion that has been around him. I banked on his fear for him not acting to sabotage and decided not to investigate him. Mistake?

I thought about investigating JMich AGAIN, because I still find him pretty suspicious, didn't get to investigate him before (and I think he knew I found him most suspicious on the FIRST mission, and there is always the possibility that he tried to sabotage the first mission, or didn't want me to use whatever power I might have had on him) and really was inclined to investigate him because

I felt mchack was very town, I felt I had to trust RW, and felt that JMich might be banking on me NOT trying to investigate him twice, and, if he is intruder/droid faction, that he could get away with sabotaging because of playing a mind game with me, which, he might have won, because I didn't investigate him. GAH!. I was worried that if I did investigate him and came back with nothing, that I would have been kicking myself for having investigated him again, and possibly aggravated others that I tried him again. He is somewhat believable because his claim is true for roleblocker. But I think he might very well be intruder or 3rd faction roleblocker too. I was hoping, if he was going to try and sabotage, that he would have enough fear of my suspicion of him to not do it , and so I banked on that too. I think I might have wished to have investigated him though at this point, because...

My thoughts were then that if mchack was an intruder wanting to sabotage the crisis, that he would have felt the most safe out of the group to do so (and I thought it was slightly more possible that the failed side of the crisis came from JMich/mchack team, though, again, impossible to be sure), like he'd be less likely to be investigated because I voiced little suspicion/none on him. So, JMich and agentcarr16 I was hoping wouldn't sabotage out of fear (if they're intruders), RW I had to put some trust in to be town, and mchack I thought would be a nice choice to see.

He succeeded in the task he performed at the holographic patrol control terminal is all the information I received. So if it was sabotage, it wasn't him.

None of them are beyond medium suspicion to me at this point. I still question JMich's alliances, and flubbucket seems off with a lot of their behavior (could be droid, or droid faction too.)

I realize that HijacK could be completely lying about everything, and I find his contention with you un-game-like and can't help but wonder if it is antagonism within the game and if he is an intruder, but I find him less intruder-like for the most part than a good handful of others.

After reading all of the unfoldings from today, I'd say the most intruder-like still seem to be:

JMich, seems odd he picked HijacK, just as I think it was odd he picked me. With my and HijacK's claimed abilities, I think it would have been more valuable to less us perform our actions and see what outcomes came of them, but no, JMich took shots on sure targets that, to me, are more likely town roles rather than intruders.

I had a feeling flubbucket would unvote trentonlf, I was keeping an eye for that happening, I didn't think it was a serious vote when I read it. Interesting.

To me it looks also like scum could be trying to get another quick-lynching on bookwyrm, though I have him as a bit suspicious as well. I do think he might have a revenge-shot ability, which to me would suggest town. I could just be mis-reading something crewdroog said though. I have no real issues with bookwryms logics and positions on some things, but some actions have been a bit scummy, but then, again, not as comfortable with him nearly as much as others. I would say his vote and Vitek's votes on Ix is what really pushed him to get lynched, so, I suppose either of them is more suspect.

Is thisAgentcarr16 claiming he investigated HijacK? Could it be that he turned no result simply because HijacK was blocked by JMich? Adalia's observances are all seeming straight to me so far, I like it. Less suspicious of him the few posts he's made today.

More and more to me a bit of the role-blocking seems to be lying or coordinated lying.

Yogsloth, I definitely appreciate and read all of your analysis. Please go for it. I didn't put no-thought into my vote, either, just because it came quick with the day start. There has been nothing but thought on my Vitek vote. I had plenty of time to ruminate on 2 possibilities of the Ix flip for a few days, and then combined with the krypsyn kill, more analysis was able to follow without too much trouble. I have an entire huge bunch of entry for Vitek suspicion, moreso than crewdroog/bookwrym has given, I think, though there is a decent amount for hiim too.

Something seems very wrong with the "roleblock" situation...
Do we really have a town roleblocker, town jailkeeper, and a one-shot town jailkeeper ability?

So, did I get this straight? JMich decided to block HijacK because he didn't think he'd be using his power? How does this make sense?

Now this is f'n money, right here.

Thank you for the stat value.

Once we have confirmation from JMich and RW (beyond "Int is my highest") this will make for some very nice analysis. I suspect, as RW notes, that the claimed values are going to average very, very high.

Money.

Oh by the way, before I head off to bed-

If your Night 1 action gained you the jailer ability you gave to Krypsyn...

And your Night 2 action was forfeit due to the crisis penalty...

Where did this come from?