A treatise on the nature of current role-claims 1 Agent – Claims
, claims [url=http://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_31_crisis_at_space_station_epsilon/post1379]roleblocked Night 1:
The claim itself is standard, and as I noted before, the roleblock it completely expected. If Town tracker, it makes good sense that Scum team would block this known role. If this is a Scum fake-claiming, then claiming roleblock makes good sense to keep from having to fabricate a tracker result that could be verified as false. The actual claim of both the role and the block are full neutral – there is no indication of alignment in either side, with a slight edge to the veracity of the role itself since there is no counter-claim. The only unusual aspect of the claim is the timing – agent claimed when a wagon was beginning to form on him, but was still a long way from actually looking like a likely lynch.
2 adaliabooks – Claims
coroner:
This is my favorite one of the day… it’s a bolt of “wtf” straight out of the blue. As has been noted, dedo did not flip with a recognized Forum Mafia Role. Is that enough to justify the existence of a coroner? Will all flips lack abilities? Really REALLY wish we had lynched Day 1 so we could compare the two flips, don’t ya know. Has scumdalia just gotten better since the “CPR Doctor” claiming days? In my opinion, it is highly important we keep this role alive to determine its potential use. Another flip or two and we should know whether we need it… although the continued looming threat of an unknown penalty for failing crisis events sticks in my mind here as well. If it’s just a completely bogus fake claim, we’ll probably be able to figure that out. But lynching now purely on this claim would be foolish, imo. It could be vital to our success, or it could be easy to ferret out as bullshit.
3 JMich – Claims
roleblocker (but not called roleblocker):
Since he and drealmer independently provided corroboration, there is no reason to doubt this claim. Of course, it says nothing of alignment. The “too many roleblockers” problem certainly exists, but I feel this is something that can play out over time. JMich’s play itself is inscrutable as usual (and his activity level is extremely welcomed), but his choice of targets I personally find extremely difficult to understand from a Town perspective. When I get to HijacK, I’ll talk about this a little bit more, but blocking someone that nobody else sees as Scum is highly suspect at best. Still, if drealmer turns out to be Scum, I’ll be the one lining up to JMich’s left for a change. I’m comfortable taking that chance, though. Bad claim, bad call, bad all around – but not bad enough for me to jump on JMich for only this claim.
4 RW – Claims
team picker:
Somebody out there was picking the teams, and while I’m not sure why RW claimed when he did, we all knew this role was out there. The only thing I find highly strange was that I had someone else
nearly certain for this role. That person has chosen to stay completely silent about RW’s claim, however, so either I was totally off base, that person is waiting to see how it plays out, or there is something even stranger in play here. Still, with no counter-claim, there is no way to lynch here.
5 HijacK – Claims
jailer, claims not to have used his ability:
Jailer itself is not too strange a role, but there are all kinds of issues here. The way I feel about this role is the same as how I feel about Town Vig. Anybody who has played with me before knows my feelings. If you’re Town Vig – keep the shot in your pocket. The likelihood of you hitting Town is just too great, no matter how big a fan you are of your own reads. Had I a vig shot, would I have shot Ix? No, I would not have, despite the fact he was and is at the very top of my list. The math just does not favor you. Were I jailer, I would not use it either… the odds of you actually making the night kill save on Night 1 are remote, and you’re far more likely to block a Town power role than Scum. It’s just the math. In my opinion, it’s a completely reasonable play to sit on it. The problem is that I’m being asked to believe that
HijacK made the reasonable play. We also have to consider the timing of the claim – why claim unprovoked? He claimed after JMich. What would you do as Town if someone else claimed roleblocker? What would you do Scum if someone else claimed roleblocker? To me, this claim is difficult to swallow, but the data just isn’t there to lynch solely on the claim. See the appendix for more detail on this.
6 drealmer – Claims
sabotage cop:
Another very strange role, and I don’t like how drealmer at first pretended he didn’t know what he would find, and then later changed it to reveal he knew exactly what his role was. I’m willing to chalk this up to a newbie mistake, but drealmer – please note that getting caught fibbing can get you lynched. Overall, this is a pretty minor role, and seems almost superfluous. I can see this being in the game, but it also makes a great fake claim, because it’s impossible to disprove. With a crisis team succeeding, you already know what the results will be. I score dealmer as being so completely Town, that the temptation to see this as a fake claim is so minor that there’s no way we should lynch for it.
Conclusion: To me, JMich and Hijack clearly have the “worst” claims (and connected, see appendix below), but I strongly feel that here in Day 1½, we should not lynch anybody based purely on claim. Lynching on behavior and creating a wagon based on analysis thereof is far more important to us at this point. That’s what we need for Day 3. I remain unconvinced the game is “broken” and a win is inevitable. That may be possible, but my optimism gland is known to be underdeveloped. The role claims we have are so varied and interconnected, that if any of them are false, we will be able to pick them apart in future Days. If this was a Scum plot to orchestrate a series of fake claims, it was pretty badly done, in my opinion. We should be able to figure out the lay of the land pretty effectively as soon as Tomorrow.
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Appendix
This is meant to help start sorting out the roleblocker issue, with a few possible combinations:
3 roleblockers:
JMich, Hijack, unknown Scum. Since there is no Town claim to have blocked agent, this scenario involves an unknown Scum team member blocking the tracker. This actually makes it more likely that both JMich and HijacK are Town, unless you think Scum team started the game with two roleblockers.
JMich, HijacK, unknown Town. This is unlikely, but possible. If agent were blocked by a Town player, that player might be afraid to step forward. In this scenario, it would be nearly mandatory for one of JMich and HijacK to be Scum, as three Town role-blockers strains credulity past the snapping point. It would actually point towards JMich as the more likely Scum, as his is the roleblock that was carried out.
2 roleblockers:
JMich, HijacK (agent is Town). The only possibility that I see is that HijacK is Scum roleblocker and blocked agent. This would probably clear JMich as Town, as I find it hard to believe Scum team would have two roleblockers.
JMich, HijacK (agent is Scum). That would make agent’s claim of being blocked false, and with no other claims of being blocked, it would essentially exonerate HijacK’s claim of not having used his power. There would be no firm conclusion on his or JMich’s alignment, however.
As you can see, even one more Day of data should help us greatly narrow the possibilities. The key to winning this game, I believe, is creating a behavior-based lynch in Day 2, and then the resulting wagon analysis and roleblock analysis should make it highly likely we nail Scum in Day 3 and possibly more.
