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General discussionForum Mafia #31: Crisis at Space Station Epsilon(2361 posts)(2361 posts)
(2361 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted October 26, 2015
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JMich: That's weird. I thought you took it as a roleblocker that also protects, thus why you didn't use it.
Stats dictated as such. Remember the percentages? Really low chance of protecting someone. No sense in using it that way. Better chance of blocking someone, but are day 1 speculations a good basis for such an action? No. Not for me. Thus, I chose not to interfere with potential investigative roles simply because I acknowledge the fact I could be wrong about my suspects.

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JMich: If you did see it as a 50-50, then you could always choose one you are unsure about to jail. If he's town, you're protecting him, if he's scum, you're blocking him.
I don't see it that way. 50-50 doesn't mean in a given situation both abilities have the same amount of importance.

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JMich: You claim you didn't use it because you didn't want to block a town, even if that would mean you were protecting a town. You claim you didn't do it because the chances of protecting were too low (you did calculate the odds wrong btw, they are better than 1/15).
That's exactly why I didn't chose to use it in a protective way. Then I also chose not to use it in a roleblocking way because I reasoned day 1 impressions could have led me astray.
Also, what are the chances if not 1/15 since I don't know who is town and who is scum?

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JMich: But no, I'm with flub, jailer is an ability to be used, even more than the roleblocker one.
I suppose that is your opinion. It is the first time I use this role and I'd rather be cautious. Alas, the role is easily verifiable and I think I know just who my target will be tonight if I reach that far.
Posted October 26, 2015
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RWarehall: Because here we are day 2 and we have nothing more than we had day 1 which resulted in a no-lynch...
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JMich: 2 blocked claims, 2 role blocker claims, 1 missing role blocker. Speculation on the affiliation of the blockers and the blocked ones. Extrapolation from result of those, should any of them be lynched.
Not as good a day 2 as we could have had, not as bad one either.
Oh, so there are advantages to a no-lynch. Got it.
Posted October 26, 2015
Something that's bugged me from the start, and I feel a bit badly for having to latch this onto Bookworm since they're a replacement, but it's still annoying me.

Way back in post 210, I made a silly comment to Crewdroog. Still screwing around, no expectation of getting any info based on it.
On post 220, she responds in a way that makes me think of a deer in headlights every time I read it. No characteristic silliness on her part, no pleasant smartass retorts, just a total verbal lockup. That's been bugging me ever since she did it.

Additional - typo'd, had to fix it. Penalize at will, it'll drive me up a wall if I leave it as it was.
Post edited October 26, 2015 by CarrionCrow
Posted October 26, 2015
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HijacK: Also, what are the chances if not 1/15 since I don't know who is town and who is scum?
If the choice were purely random, the odds are at least 2 in 15. 1 in 15 you protect the target of the attack and 1 in 15 you disable the killer.

But those are odds in a vacuum of complete uncertainty. If you believe your reads are better than pure random, the odds only improve.
Posted October 26, 2015
WTF, MORE edited posts from CarrionCrow. NOT COOL. How many is that now? 3? 4?
Posted October 26, 2015
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CarrionCrow: Something that's bugged me from the start, and I feel a bit badly for having to latch this onto Bookworm since they're a replacement, but it's still annoying me.

Way back in post 210, I made a silly comment to Crewdroog. Still screwing around, no expectation of getting any info based on it.
On post 220, she responds in a way that makes me think of a deer in headlights every time I read it. No characteristic silliness on her part, no pleasant smartass retorts, just a total verbal lockup. That's been bugging me ever since she did it.

Additional - typo'd, had to fix it. Penalize at will, it'll drive me up a wall if I leave it as it was.
Post has been edited, but no change to the meaning of content has been made, at least as far as I can tell. Everything except the typo, which I don't even remember reading it, seems to be in order.
Posted October 26, 2015
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drealmer7: WTF, MORE edited posts from CarrionCrow. NOT COOL. How many is that now? 3? 4?
For what it's worth, I read it both before and after the edit, and I can't find the difference. Must have been a typo minor enough for me to gloss over.

But yeah, cc, even though you want out - trying to deliberately provoke modkill is not the way to do it, OK?
Posted October 26, 2015
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yogsloth: snip
What is that thing in your avatar? I noticed it a while ago but forgot to ask. Before the hard hat your dude never had anything on the head. It looks like a trippy hat. Train conductor? You like trains?
Posted October 26, 2015
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RWarehall: But, is that role blocker really missing is a valid question...
Yes. A couple of options.
1) agentcarr16 is telling the truth about being blocked. That means that we either have a 3rd role capable of blocking that did the blocking, or that HijacK did indeed block agentcarr
2) agentcarr16 is lying. So no idea about a roleblocker existing or not.

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HijacK: Stats dictated as such. Remember the percentages? Really low chance of protecting someone.
Again, your odds are off. Do them again, and see what you missed (hint, both parts of the ability can prevent a night kill)

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HijacK: Thus, I chose not to interfere with potential investigative roles simply because I acknowledge the fact I could be wrong about my suspects.
Since you like percentages, what were the odds of your target being an investigative role? High enough to not risk it it seems.

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HijacK: That's exactly why I didn't chose to use it in a protective way.
So you don't use your ability, but what you think is your ability. Gotcha

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HijacK: Also, what are the chances if not 1/15 since I don't know who is town and who is scum?
Assume a 4 scum (the usual 25 percent), then assume scum chose their killer at random. There are 2 possible targets that will prevent the kill from happening, though the chances are not 2/15 (you could be the possible victim for example). So no, odds are not 1 in 15.

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drealmer7: Oh, so there are advantages to a no-lynch. Got it.
Not exactly. This is just doing the best of a bad situation. While a lynch would have probably given us more info, we did get a bit of information during night 1. Compare this to a game with no active roles during the night (or no roles that step forward) and we may have been back on Day 1.
Posted October 26, 2015
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yogsloth: For what it's worth, I read it both before and after the edit, and I can't find the difference. Must have been a typo minor enough for me to gloss over.

But yeah, cc, even though you want out - trying to deliberately provoke modkill is not the way to do it, OK?
-laughs- If I wanted out fully, I'd have either kept going til I did get that modkill, or I would have effectively killed my own character off.

Figuring a flamingo attack is a small price to pay for that post not bugging the shit out of me.
Posted October 26, 2015
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JMich: Again, your odds are off. Do them again, and see what you missed (hint, both parts of the ability can prevent a night kill)
I see. I guess the error on my part was calculating chances individually.

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JMich: Since you like percentages, what were the odds of your target being an investigative role? High enough to not risk it it seems.
In a 16 player game I assumed at least 2 roles would be around, with a decent potential of 3.

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JMich: Assume a 4 scum (the usual 25 percent), then assume scum chose their killer at random. There are 2 possible targets that will prevent the kill from happening, though the chances are not 2/15 (you could be the possible victim for example). So no, odds are not 1 in 15.
I don't think I could've convinced myself to use it in that scenario either way. Maybe, who knows. But I don't think so. So it's in between 2/15 and 1/15 then?
Posted October 26, 2015
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HijacK: So it's in between 2/15 and 1/15 then?
Assuming total random pick, and no third party killers, it seems so.
Assuming you have some scum suspects, it may be as high as 25%, if you correctly guessed all 4 scum.
Posted October 26, 2015
Hmm. Drealmer7 mentions again and again and again that they want my input on who's guilty, and what happens when I put something forward, what do they latch onto solely? My edit of a typo, that I acknowledged doing as well as why I did it.

That's interesting to me. To totally ignore the information, then make a show of "hey look at them, look at them, look at what they're doing!"
You wouldn't be trying to bury what I said, would you, drealmer7? =)
Posted October 26, 2015
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HijacK: So it's in between 2/15 and 1/15 then?
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JMich: Assuming total random pick, and no third party killers, it seems so.
Assuming you have some scum suspects, it may be as high as 25%, if you correctly guessed all 4 scum.
Also with the potential beneficial side-effect of blocking a scum investigative role as well...
Posted October 26, 2015
I was hoping for a post to make a gap. Thank you, RW.

Come on, drealmer7, you have got to think faster. The turnaround from my statement to your overblown response, a response that wasn't a replay, which means you've been watching the thread rather than solely responding to posts directed at you, was 4 minutes. Now at 10 minutes, and not so much as a single word?

Getting tongue-tied at bad moments isn't the best of ideas. The longer it takes you to manage some kind of response (in all probability a similarly overblown one with lots of caps for attempted emphasis), the guiltier you look.
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Community
General discussionForum Mafia #31: Crisis at Space Station Epsilon(2361 posts)(2361 posts)
(2361 posts)