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General discussionForum Mafia #30: Murder They Wrote(1351 posts)(1351 posts)
(1351 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted September 22, 2015
Quick heads-up: I believe the deadline is somewhere in the next few hours or so. I'm going to a birthday party later and have no idea when I'll get back. Not sure if I'll be able to check on the thread either. I say this in the context of the forming wagon and the incoming deadline. If some development emerges that calls for consideration in changing votes and of the sorts I may not be able to unvote, switch or anything else. I hope there is more time left after all and I'll make it back in time before the day ends, but no way to guarantee it. I'll check at least once more before going out.
Posted September 22, 2015
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yogsloth: [...]

I hope everybody parses this and pays attention. It does a great job of explaining why Kryp is in my top two, and really, I am totally comfortable moving forward on him. His continued fumbling in trying to prove he's part of the "in" club adds to this to make him look pretty bad.

But next time mchack... paragraph breaks, buddy! :)
Or you might be overlooking/ misinterpreting something in his posts, because, you know, it doesn't fit your read; some things can be read in more than one ways if you take the time to read all the details, and evaluate them in the context of the bigger picture.

And that's where I'm on Krypsyn at the moment - things he's said can be interpreted the way yogsloth sees them, but they can also be interpreted differently. His initial argument for switching from HijacK to adalabooks (post #664) did raise an eyebrow, but his follow up argument (post #666) was quite reasonable, though it could have been "damage control". His vote on HijacK (post #630) raised an eyebrow a bit more for something very specific in his arguments {emphasis added]:
It is too convenient; plausible, but unconfirmable until someone else dies.
@Krypsyn - given your stance on assumptions, this is a firm statement about HijacKs role, even though it's not the only way to confirm his role, and I think you know it.



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mchack: I won't answer questions related on who I used my power on unless, the one in question asks himself. [...]
Of course it's up to you, but that was actually not the purpose and/ or nature of my question.



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cristigale: [...] Prior to that, I had the single vote on CSPVG. [...] I believe those voting on CPSVG, prior to CSPVG’s vote on yogs, are town. [...]
Why do you believe that those on CSPVG's wagon before he voted for yogsloth are all town?


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cristigale: [...]

BlueMooner – who wants to speculate that Blue is scum Today? I’ve had him mainly as a newbie town.

[...]
This could be seen as an attempt to cast him in a bad light, but without getting your hands (too) dirty.


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cristigale: [...]

@Hyper – I need to reply to a couple of your posts, I thought these are more time critical

[...]
And this feels awfully familiar with the delaying tactics you used in CSPVG's game. And summarising things also feels familiar, just more refined than in that game. It's also interesting that in your post #955 you asked mchack the exact same question adaliabooks had asked about an hour earlier in his post #954 - that was the last post in the thread at the time you made yours, but somehow you missed it.
Combine these with a few other things I already pointed out, and I'm not exactly sold you're town. I may be wrong, but I've not ruled out the case you may be some third-party with your own agenda.

As for the Reluctant Voter - I hesitate to vote, I'm being called on it, I cast a vote, I'm being called on it too; looks like no matter how I try to go about it, I do it wrong.



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dedoporno: Quick heads-up: I believe the deadline is somewhere in the next few hours or so.[...]
The deadline is on Wednesday morning 4 am UTC, that's in more than 12hrs from now.
Posted September 22, 2015
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HypersomniacLive: As for the Reluctant Voter - I hesitate to vote, I'm being called on it, I cast a vote, I'm being called on it too; looks like no matter how I try to go about it, I do it wrong.
You may be wrong about that.
Posted September 22, 2015
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JMich: Interesting analyses by both mchack and cristigale. Krypsyn does indeed look like a good lynch candidate. Not sure if anything more will be said today, but there is some time before the deadline, so not voting yet.
OK, well, there's 12 hours before the deadline and I assume you'll be spending a reasonable chunck of that sleeping. so... any ideas, then?


btw, very nice contributions from cristi. Move her further back on my targets list. :)

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HypersomniacLive: As for the Reluctant Voter - I hesitate to vote, I'm being called on it, I cast a vote, I'm being called on it too; looks like no matter how I try to go about it, I do it wrong.
Nah, you're having a great game! I sorta hope you're Scum and snowing us all just so I can be pleasantly surprised at the end. :)
Posted September 22, 2015
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yogsloth: OK, well, there's 12 hours before the deadline and I assume you'll be spending a reasonable chunck of that sleeping
I would? Why? It's currently 18:39, so I still have ~6 hours before considering bed.
Posted September 22, 2015
I'm still alive, but barely present. But a quick crossreading didn't reveal anything to change my mind. To me flub still acts reclusive or even scummy and Kryps doesn't appear towny either. But as someone elaborated: actually all we have to do is that those on the 'most likely town' pile band together and just lynch everybody whose alignment is doubtful. The 'most likely town' pile is big enough that this strategy will work. It will most likely eliminate all scum. Sure, some townies will be in the 'doubtful' pile too - but if the 'almost confirmed' players stick together, we should still win this. If you doubt my alignment, I'm also content to be lynched somewhere along the line. But preferably after having recieved some help, so that I can do something useful for town, as long as I still live (I think this half-claim doesn't do any damage any more after all our important roles are already on the table).

For now I still vote to lynch Krypsyn. Apart from the nightly result I also would still put flubb as scum - and so would vote to lynch him as well some time soon.
Posted September 22, 2015
I wonder when Krypsyn will make his appearance, it's already 20 hours since his last post and I also need to go to bed in about 4-5 hours. I bet he's got some cool claim up his sleeve, been wondering about that joker business.
Is it always like this that important stuff gets discussed/revealed right before the deadline?
Posted September 22, 2015
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mchack: I wonder when Krypsyn will make his appearance, it's already 20 hours since his last post and I also need to go to bed in about 4-5 hours. I bet he's got some cool claim up his sleeve, been wondering about that joker business.
Is it always like this that important stuff gets discussed/revealed right before the deadline?
Unfortunately.

Some of us charge in with our swords swinging, knocking over the furniture and scaring the hell out of the cat as we bellow our war cries.

And some of us sit still, staring balefully at the clock, saying little, doing less, just waiting for the deadline so we can begin playing with a reluctant sigh.
Posted September 22, 2015
Tuesday noon vote count:

5 Krypsyn (McHack, Yogsloth, Lifthrasil, Dedoporno, Trentonlf)

Krypsyn is at L-3 and is at risk of leaving the island.

With 14 players alive it takes 8 votes to kick someone off the island and 7 votes to "no-lynch".
Deadline is in 12 hours on Tuesday night at midnight EDT [UTC -4] (Wednesday morning 4 am UTC)

Bagatha Chrustie checking in again...
It seems the house is currently rallying again Krypsyn and his poor hygiene.
"He stinks!"
"Take a bath!"
"B.O. is not cologne!"

It really seems as though the house is banding together on this...
Post edited September 22, 2015 by RWarehall
Posted September 22, 2015
A (belated) look at day 1's wagons.

Day 1 Wagons:
Yogs - trent, Lift, flub, -Lift, CSPVG, -CSPVG, Lift, BlueMoon, -Lift, -trent
Final Wagon - flub, BlueMoon, CSPVG

HijacK - BlueMoon, yogs, mchack, -BlueMoon, adalia, Hyper, -yogs, -mchack, -Hyper
Final Wagon - adaliabooks

CSPVG - yogs, adaliabooks, -adaliabooks, cristi, -yogs
Final Wagon - cristi, mchack, yogs, dedo, krypsyn, Agent, Lift, Hyper, HijacK

I'm not sure I've got the timing on the wagons entirely correct as I've just based them off RWarehall's vote count, but it should be mostly accurate enough for purposes.

So our 1 known confirmed scum is still on yogs' wagon at the end of day 1, along with flub and BlueMoon. I would say that's a dangerous spot for scum to be at the end of the day, particularly as yogs towniness was looking more likely at the end of the day. I find it somewhat unlikely (though not impossible) that there were more scum on that wagon at the end of the day.
As for those who jumped on and off, Lift is still the most suspicious to me, for the reasons I've already listed, and the others while fairly suspicious for being on the wagon in the first place are mitigated somewhat by CSPVG's guilt. (though I must admit that as I type this I wonder at the value of my first assumption as both flub and BlueMoon have been somewhat suspicious throughout the game)

As for HijacK's wagon I was the only one left on it, and that was largely by dint of the fact that I was absent at the end of the day and wasn't able to move my vote. It's interesting to note BlueMoon was on that one too (but if I remember correctly left before HijacK's claim?).

As for CSPVG's, everyone other than cristi appears to have joined the wagon in between the penultimate vote count and the end of day count. It's hard to say much about this, I think many people followed yogs to what became the only viable wagon to avoid a no lynch.
As for who is or isn't scum out of that list? It does make sense at least one buddy will have jumped on to gain town cred when it became obvious he was going down, but that basically could be any of dedo, krypsyn, Lift, Hyper or HijacK.

But here's the thing that I find most odd about the wagon, and it's cristi's analysis of it.

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cristigale: I believe those voting on CPSVG, prior to CSPVG’s vote on yogs, are town.
If I'm not mistaken... the only person on CSPVG's wagon before he voted yogs (other than me, but I'm not sure anyone would include my random vote as making me townie) was cristi herself. So what she's basically saying is, that we should all assume she is town. That's more than a little suss to me...
It's entirely possible that cristi's vote on CSPVG was just meant to create distance between them for later days and she was not able to move it when his wagon actually picked up speed.
I don't like the implication of this little statement at all, and combined with some other warnings I think I shall
Vote cristigale

If it looks like we won't achieve a lynch (unlikely I think) and krypsyn's wagon is still the only particularly viable one before the deadline I will move my vote, but I find cristi just tips the scales as far as scuminess goes and I'd rather place my vote there than to vote krypsyn purely for the sake of avoiding no lynch.
Posted September 22, 2015
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adaliabooks: If I'm not mistaken... the only person on CSPVG's wagon before he voted yogs (other than me, but I'm not sure anyone would include my random vote as making me townie) was cristi herself. So what she's basically saying is, that we should all assume she is town. That's more than a little suss to me...
You're mistaken.

Not too great a post here, booksie-wooksie-boo-boo.
Posted September 22, 2015
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adaliabooks: If I'm not mistaken... the only person on CSPVG's wagon before he voted yogs (other than me, but I'm not sure anyone would include my random vote as making me townie) was cristi herself. So what she's basically saying is, that we should all assume she is town. That's more than a little suss to me...
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yogsloth: You're mistaken.

Not too great a post here, booksie-wooksie-boo-boo.
Sorry, I believe you had voted him too (before he voted you back), but that doesn't actually make the situation better for cristi as it looks like she's trying to piggyback off your towniness by saying that you must both be town.
Posted September 22, 2015
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yogsloth: You're mistaken.

Not too great a post here, booksie-wooksie-boo-boo.
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adaliabooks: Sorry, I believe you had voted him too (before he voted you back), but that doesn't actually make the situation better for cristi as it looks like she's trying to piggyback off your towniness by saying that you must both be town.
Try again. Again.
Posted September 22, 2015
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yogsloth: Try again. Again.
Why don't you give it a try? Here, I'll even save you the trouble of going back and getting all the wagons ((strike through means unvote):

Vote Count (post #824)
9 CSPVG (Cristigale, McHack, Yogsloth, Dedoporno, Krypsyn, AgentCarr16, Lifthrasil, HypersomniacLive, HijacK)
3 Yogsloth (Flubbucket, BlueMooner, CSPVG)
1 HijacK (Adaliabooks)
1 Adaliabooks (JMich)


CSPVG’s wagon – D1 Lynch

yogsloth (post #207)
adaliabooks (post #253)
̶a̶d̶a̶l̶i̶a̶b̶o̶o̶k̶s̶ (post #330)
cristigale (post #391)
y̶o̶g̶s̶l̶o̶t̶h̶ (post #435)
mchack (post #635)
yogsloth (post #636)
dedoporno (post #639)
Krypsyn (post #669)
agentcarr16 (post #673)
Lifthrasil (post #674)
HypersomniacLive (post #681)
HijacK (Hammer/ post #704)


yogsloth’s D1 wagon

trentonlf (post #54)
Lifthrasil (post #75)
Krypsyn (post #211)
K̶r̶y̶p̶s̶y̶n̶ (post #217)
flubbucket (post #262)
L̶i̶f̶t̶h̶r̶a̶s̶i̶l̶ (post #359)
CSPVG (post #402)
C̶S̶P̶V̶G̶ (post #435)
Lifthrasil (post #453)
BlueMooner (post #558)
L̶i̶f̶t̶h̶r̶a̶s̶i̶l̶ (post #640)
t̶r̶e̶n̶t̶o̶n̶l̶f̶ (post #649)
CSPVG (post #667)


HijacK’s D1 wagon

BlueMooner (post #357)
yogsloth (post #482)
mchack (post #503)
Krypsyn (post #520)
K̶r̶y̶p̶s̶y̶n̶ (post #525)
B̶l̶u̶e̶M̶o̶o̶n̶e̶r̶ (post #558)
adaliabooks (post #569)
HypersomniacLive (post #578)
y̶o̶g̶s̶l̶o̶t̶h̶ (post #622)
Krypsyn (post #630)
m̶c̶h̶a̶c̶k̶ (post #635)
K̶r̶y̶p̶s̶y̶n̶ (post #664)
H̶y̶p̶e̶r̶s̶o̶m̶n̶i̶a̶c̶L̶i̶v̶e̶ (post #681)


adaliabooks’s D1 wagon

Krypsyn (post #268)
CSPVG (post #321)
C̶S̶P̶V̶G̶ (post #402)
JMich (post #465)
K̶r̶y̶p̶s̶y̶n (post #520)
Krypsyn (post #525)
HijacK (post #572)
Krypsyn (post #664)
K̶r̶y̶p̶s̶y̶n (post #669)

You did say you'd have a go at it - or do you consider it superfluous now that you decided that all we need to do is follow the numbers?
Posted September 22, 2015
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HypersomniacLive: Why don't you give it a try? Here, I'll even save you the trouble of going back and getting all the wagons ((strike through means unvote):

You did say you'd have a go at it - or do you consider it superfluous now that you decided that all we need to do is follow the numbers?
Nicely organized.

You will note that in the post of mine you linked to, I directly say:

As we’ve hit on in previous games, wagon analysis seems to be a dying art. I would suggest we do our best in this game. I believe it will be crucial – perhaps not on Day 2, but in further Days when there are multiple wagons to analyze side-by-side. I’m not very good at it myself, but I’ll do my best if I’m around, and I hope we can all at least give it a try.
It's Day 2. My belief remains that we need it the most in further days, and if I'm here in Day 3, I pledge I will give it my best shot to analyze all the wagons side-by-side.

My criticism of adalia has more to do with his skipping mchack's vote in order to try and pin an ulterior motive on cristigale.
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionForum Mafia #30: Murder They Wrote(1351 posts)(1351 posts)
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