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General discussionForum (Cult) Mafia #41 - Shodan Awakens!(993 posts)(993 posts)
(993 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted July 21, 2016
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cristigale: <snip>
Where are you, Cristi? You're the last one to show up after everything blew up.

Should be plenty for you to read now.
Posted July 21, 2016
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cristigale: <snip>
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Bookwyrm627: Where are you, Cristi? You're the last one to show up after everything blew up.

Should be plenty for you to read now.
need your cult buddy to back up your positions, eh?
Posted July 21, 2016
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drealmer7: need your cult buddy to back up your positions, eh?
I'd love to see the logic that places me as cult with Cristi.
Posted July 21, 2016
Check-in. Sorry for the absence. I can see lots has happened. Today was last day with family (and they come first). Traveling home tomorrow. Should be to catch-up tomorrow (Thursday) evening.

Real quick - considering if Bookwyrm is a needed policy lynch. Not sure, had a glance this afternoon and just quick skimmed.

Hope you're all staying cool, it's a scorcher here and hotter were I'm headed (but less humidity.)
Posted July 21, 2016
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Official vote count:

Bookwyrm: 3 - flubbucket, drealmer, Fantasysci
docbear: 3 - Bookwyrm, Dessimu, agentcarr
flubbucket: 1 - Ixamyakxim
cristigale: 1 - docbear

It takes 5 to lynch. Bookwyrm and docbear are tied at L-2

Not voting: cristigale
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Post edited July 21, 2016 by Lifthrasil
Posted July 21, 2016
I can see how lynching Bookwyrm may be a necessity if we don't lose game before that moment comes. But I think now he is not the top priority.

If we assume all new info is true, we still have docbear, Ixamyakxim, fantasysci, drealmer and cristigale - 5 unknown individuals, 2 of which should be town at this moment. I think we should somehow act on those players instead.
Posted July 21, 2016
I get the feeling that Cult almost has enough to control the lynch, but can't quite just come out and say that.
Posted July 21, 2016
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cristigale: Real quick - considering if Bookwyrm is a needed policy lynch.
There's the possibility of that on D4 or later, but not Today. We need to hit the CL.

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agentcarr16: I get the feeling that Cult almost has enough to control the lynch, but can't quite just come out and say that.
We know they didn't start with two cultists. If they started with one cultist, then it is likely 5v4. If it was just the CL, then likely 6v3.
Posted July 21, 2016
I know this is going to be a popular suggestion, but I think we also need to decide the Day 4 lynch Today.

Town outnumbers the cult today (this is true even if you think I'm part of the cult). By deciding tomorrow's lynch, we force cultists to either go along with it, or reveal themselves as converted when they try to change their mind.

To do this, we'd need to decide two different targets, in case Agent kills one of those people tonight.

Agent would be the only person allowed to change his mind, since he can't be corrupted by the cult.
Posted July 21, 2016
If at all possible, we need to hit the CL today.

Process of Elimination can remove several names from the list.

Agent is the Deprogrammer. With no counter claim, he can't be the CL.
Flub is the Tracker. With no counter claim, he can't be the CL.
Dessimu is the Vig. With no counter claim (and a single town corpse on N1), he can't be the CL.

Agent investigated Flub, Flub didn't die, so Flub is town. Therefore, Flub isn't lying about his investigations (there is no good reason for it).

Flub tracked Wyrm, no movement on N1. Wyrm probably isn't the CL. More on this below.
Flub tracked Fantasy, no movement on N2. Fantasy probably isn't the CL. More on this below.

That means the CL is very likely among these four players:
drealmer7
cristigale
docbear1975
Ixamyakxim

Based mostly on Cristi publicly questioning the mod about the CL + DP cross targeting in Post 426, I'm inclined to doubt she is the CL. Were she the CL, I think she'd have asked that privately instead.

That leaves
drealmer7
docbear1975
Ixamyakxim

I suggest we lynch one, (my preference on Drealmer or Docbear), Agent investigates another one tonight, and we lynch the last one D4. By that point, the CL should be dead or neutralized, and the CL can't stop it from happening.

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Some expansion on why I discount Wyrm and Fantasy as CL.

-Fantasy would have to have skipped converting someone on N2. I see no reason why she'd do this if she were the CL. If someone can offer a convincing case, I'm listening.

-Wyrm would have to have skipped converting someone on N1. Skipping a night is more plausible in this instance, but it plus the claim would have put CL-Wyrm in a terrible position for no good reason. To win, Wyrm would have to be expecting to not get lynched sometime after the real DP's counter claim, and that he could somehow make it to end game possibly without ever recruiting any new cultists (if the DP targeted him N1, he'd only ever have the recruits he started with). If the DP deprogrammed Wyrm N1, then in the absolute best CL starting position (CL + 2 cultists), Wyrm + followers would have to survive at least 5 Days with zero casualties (and Vig shot has to hit town) and get the Deprogrammer killed in that time. If any followers die, or if there were fewer than 2 followers to start, Wyrm (or a cultist, who is more vulnerable to the DP) would have to survive even longer.

The obviously better strategy would be for CL-Wyrm to not false claim DP. He wouldn't be an obvious target for deprogramming or tracking, so he'd be able to freely work on growing the cult. High risk, no reward play (claiming DP while CL) implies CL-Wyrm is either having an idiot moment or trying to lose.
Posted July 21, 2016
I know I should just keep my mouth shut. But, I'm going to roll over like RW and JMich. I'm not sure what I can do or say that convinces anyone that I'm town. Lynching me will kill another townie. You won't be hitting the CL. Taking me out of the equation (and included the power roles): here's who is left: flub, bookwyrm, dessime, agent, drealmer, cristigale, fantasysci5, lxamyakxim. The CL is in that group, it ain't me.

Earlier today, I voted for cristigale, which seems to have come out of the blue. Out of all of us, she would be the least likely. The CL could fly under the radar so to speak, and not draw any attention. Just quietly go about converting townies.
Posted July 21, 2016
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docbear1975: Taking me out of the equation (and included the power roles): here's who is left: flub, bookwyrm, dessime, agent, drealmer, cristigale, fantasysci5, lxamyakxim. The CL is in that group, it ain't me.
Can you narrow the list down any?
Posted July 21, 2016
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docbear1975: flub, bookwyrm, dessime, agent, drealmer, cristigale, fantasysci5, lxamyakxim
First: what is the point of two times now stating the list of players that will be left after we lynch you?

Second: how come sometimes you write nicknames correctly and other times - not?

Third: combine first two points and you get my paranoia theory: docbear is a cultist or CL and for a second time she is informing fellow cultists as to which player they should target at night. I think that would me.

What do others think?
Posted July 21, 2016
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docbear1975: But, I'm going to roll over like RW and JMich. I'm not sure what I can do or say that convinces anyone that I'm town.
You want an out, here's your out. I better not be wrong about you. Just be quick because if I'm right there's no way flubb stays on this wagon.

Unvote flubb

Vote Bookwyrm

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Bookwyrm627: Flub is the Tracker. With no counter claim, he can't be the CL.

Agent investigated Flub, Flub didn't die, so Flub is town. Therefore, Flub isn't lying about his investigations (there is no good reason for it).
Flub absolutely can be the cult leader. In fact the reason he probably came out as "Tracker" when he did (after sitting on his hat for two days knowing you were false claiming) is because agent neutered him the night before and you've been in the cult. He knows there's no Tracker because either you were the Tracker or the real tracker is already recruited.

That you totally discount this is highly suspicious. And I don't think I want to rely on agent to investigate you tonight. If agent is cult and not the DP oh well, I rolled the dice about what I thought made sense.
Posted July 21, 2016
Vote: Bookwrym627
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionForum (Cult) Mafia #41 - Shodan Awakens!(993 posts)(993 posts)
(993 posts)