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General discussionForum (Cult) Mafia #41 - Shodan Awakens!(993 posts)(993 posts)
(993 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted July 06, 2016
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drealmer7: @lift / dedo

question
Does the answer for that peculiar question suit your diabolical plans well?
Posted July 06, 2016
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Dessimu: Does the answer for that peculiar question suit your diabolical plans well?
Yes.
Posted July 06, 2016
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drealmer7: To be clear:

My thought is that the game starts out ONLY with a CL, no followers. Why? Because that is how I see it being the most balanced. It allows D2 to start at a likely 9v2. If we started 10v2 that turns D2 into a likely 8v3, and that is too much too fast to be considered balanced, imo.


That is certainly plausible, although I'm learning toward a CL and one cultist at this point.


1) Until the CL is neutralized, every single Lynch that isn't the CL hands him a free night to try and convert someone.
...odds are good that we won't know when he is neutralized...so let's just KILL KILL KILL anyone we can until the game is over!
reckless and unnecessarily messy

That doesn't convince that no-lynch is the way to go. No-lynch just increases the pool for the CL.
Posted July 06, 2016
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docbear1975: No-lynch just increases the pool for the CL.
They get to choose from 1/11 or 1/10 tonight, if it is just the CL. The size of the pool doesn't matter in regards to recruiting, in fact, the more in the pool, the less likely they are to recruit a PR.
Posted July 06, 2016
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Bookwyrm627: 1) Until the CL is neutralized, every single Lynch that isn't the CL hands him a free night to try and convert someone.
...odds are good that we won't know when he is neutralized...so let's just KILL KILL KILL anyone we can until the game is over!
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drealmer7: reckless and unnecessarily messy

I hold the view that every single lynch that isn't the CL or a cultist brings the cult closer to winning (thinning the pool to choose the PRs from and decreasing town's numbers.) We've got tools besides lynch at our disposal, and I say we can use them without lynching to make things a bit more solid. I don't see not lynching as a "delay in getting started" with my view of how things could unfold. Deprogrammer is our strongest muscle here, not the lynch.

Of course we could lynch and actually hit the PR, anything is possible, but, I'm going on likelihoods...but...wait...
Your alteration of my quote is attempting to strawman my argument. If we No Lynch, we might gain information, but we definitely don't kill cult, and the cult almost certainly grows. The lynches aren't just about killing the CL, they are also about killing cultists.

Is your proposal that we sit around, letting the cult grow, until the voters (which includes a growing number of cultists) are pretty sure about who needs to be lynched? Or do we wait until someone says "Hey, I'm the tracker, and I saw player x moving around!"? How do you propose that town gains safe information? Safe information being data that can't be faked by the cult.

The cult is going to get closer to winning regardless of whether we lynch or not. The only question is whether we're going to try and make progress as well, or if we're going to depend on vulnerable power roles to do all the work for us.

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Bookwyrm627: 2) While the CL, as a role, can't be removed by today's lynch...
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drealmer7: Who's putting forward blatantly incorrect misinformation? I pose mine as an opinion/idea, you're seeming to post this as fact.
I refer you to my previous discussion with JMich about this. To me, the very clear rule implication is that the D1 lynch cannot rid us of the CL role. I concede that maybe there is some other balancing mechanic in play and the CL can be eliminated D1, but I strongly doubt it, it isn't a safe assumption, and No Lynch is guaranteed to be unable to eliminate the CL on D1.

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drealmer7: Are you meaning to make this sound more dire than it is and put out more misinformation? Cult can't "steal" the vig or the tracker, they can convert them and in turn remove their powers "Steal", to me, implies they are taking the power roles over for themselves. Not so. I'm not saying it isn't bad to lose the power roles (duhh), but it just seems like wyrm is misrepresenting things here, again, because obviously it is the same for the CL. There are more PRs to seek out the CL/cultists in the pool than the reverse. Numbers are on our side. Killing townies just makes it easier for the cult, at least on D1 when there is no information to help increase the odds of hitting cult, and the likelihood of killing town is QUITE HIGH.
-What misinformation did I put out? The CL can steal the tracker and vig from town, even if those players lose their power when stolen. Once converted, we certainly don't have the role anymore, and we don't have confirmation that the role is eliminated. This strikes me as nitpicking on word choice in order to throw mud.

-We are only guaranteed to have more power roles on D1. If the tracker is converted on N1, then we're no longer in the lead.

-Which town PR will know when they've targeted the CL? On the flip side, the CL can be certain when someone has been converted.

-When do you suggest we start lynching? What trigger shall we wait for, since No Lynch means the generic townie is almost certain to have absolutely nothing new to look at on D2?

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drealmer7: Do you not understand that I was posing an idea that I think is possible, not purporting to claim I knew something for a fact?
Huh. Let me quote a few things, and you tell me how they fit reasonably fit together.

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drealmer7: That is why I said most simply the tracker could determine, for certain, if a player is not the CL, and that only.
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drealmer7: Actually, we have the information that the CL "CAN", so I figure that means the CL is not compulsory.
Here's what I'm getting from this series of lines: The tracker can "for certain" clear someone as not CL (presumably because the target didn't go anywhere), even though pre-deprogramming the CL could (presumably) choose not to go anywhere (like if he strongly suspected he was about to be tracked) and post-deprogramming the CL can't go anywhere.

The obvious (to me) problems with saying "the tracker can for certain clear someone as not CL" is why I said you are spreading misinformation. You've even now admitted that you didn't think the CL was compulsory, and you've offered a reason to back that up. And yet, you think the tracker can be certain that someone isn't CL?

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Bookwyrm627: The tracker seeing someone stay home does NOT confirm with certainty that the target is not the CL.
1) We have no indication that the CL is compulsive. He could choose to stay home one night, especially if he suspects he might be tracked.
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drealmer7: *sigh*
Actually, we have the information that the CL "CAN", so I figure that means the CL is not compulsory. However, if the CL decided not to recruit someone on a night, that is really bad play, imo (why on earth would the CL do that?), and not something I'm accounting for happening in this game. Yes, sure, it's possible, but I actually find it so unlikely that it's a non-factor. This statement reeks of bad information.
I provided the reason why the CL might not try to convert someone one night, right in the bit you quoted here!!

Imagine, just for a moment, that you're the CL. You have a very strong suspicion that the tracker is going to track you. Like, say, someone has said "I'm the tracker, and I'm going to track Drealmer tonight." The Deprogrammer has already claimed. What are you going to do? Try to convert the tracker (who is likely to be protected by the deprogrammer), convert someone else (outing yourself as the CL), or just forego doing anything that night and maybe get cleared as Not CL?
Posted July 06, 2016
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Bookwyrm627:
Huh. The more you talk the more I start to feel you're legit.

I was going to cry bloodly murder lynch death for you if you didn't start calling out your night targets before the day ended. Now, while I would still like you to do it I don't think I'd go as crazy as I thought I would.

I REALLY didn't want to trust you this soon because that's a scary prospect but I like a lot of what you're saying.

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Bookwyrm627: Imagine, just for a moment, that you're the CL. You have a very strong suspicion that the tracker is going to track you. Like, say, someone has said "I'm the tracker, and I'm going to track Drealmer tonight." The Deprogrammer has already claimed.
The easy prospect for cult is to have the CL convert someone and have that person false claim. Cult has a VERY strong incentive to false claim because it draws out town roles AND assuming the CL keeps doing his thing can replenish their ranks anyway. Doubly so if the game start is Cult Leader + 1 Cultist.
Posted July 07, 2016
I'm still here. Just exhausted.

I'll try to check in tomorrow morning or evening and post something relevant. Sorry all.
Posted July 07, 2016
All of everybody's hypothetical what-ifs has talked me in circles. :P *sits under a tree and reads the TriOptimum manual*
Posted July 07, 2016
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Bookwyrm627: Imagine, just for a moment, that you're the CL. You have a very strong suspicion that the tracker is going to track you. Like, say, someone has said "I'm the tracker, and I'm going to track Drealmer tonight." The Deprogrammer has already claimed. What are you going to do? Try to convert the tracker (who is likely to be protected by the deprogrammer), convert someone else (outing yourself as the CL), or just forego doing anything that night and maybe get cleared as Not CL?
If I'm the CL I'm already fucked if I drew that much suspicion. I don't think it makes sense to answer what I would do in that situation as it could only serve to help the CL think out strategy, and your hypotheticals aren't reality or close to it, imo.

To answer when should we start lynching. Ehhh, we can start anytime we get a majority to agree on a player! Have any even partially good suggestions? Atm, there's just no one I feel that strongly about, and I don't like just killing people "just because", especially when town's chances of doing something good for town are 1/12, and the chances of town doing something good for the cult are 11/12, or 2/12 + 10/12, either way, neither have me confident atm that lynching is a good idea.

Also, remember, I'm usually going with likelihoods to base my actions on, but still try to keep all reasonable possibilities in the field of view at the same time. I don't find it likely there will be a night the CL doesn't recruit, I don't find it likely the tracker will claim before they target who they think the CL is likely to be, I don't find it likely we hit a CL or cultist today, and it is more likely we'll hit a PR, so, meh, yeh....ohfuggit, let's kill someone, if we hit a PR, oh well! ...jk

Having said that, there's lots of lurkers that are beginning to look tasty. Even cristi and dess are leaning towards the 'lurking to the extent of drawing my ire" side of things. RW, flub, and fantasysci5 are the only players I have leaning even slightly towards slightly suspicious atm.

vote no lynch
Posted July 07, 2016
My vote was RVS, it might not be a bad vote but not convinced yet:

Unvote flubb

@flubb - Under the scenario presented, how would the tracker need to claim except if Bookwyrm is CL?

The Tracker tracks Bookwyrm N1. Bookwyrm does not report who he targeted on N1 until D2:

If Bookwyrm is telling the truth, tracker does not need to reveal. Silence implies Bookwyrm was honest about target.
If Bookwyrm is lying and is targeted by the real Deprogrammer, tracker only needs to reveal if Bookwyrm lies about his target. Bookwyrm is only alive if he is the CL instead of goon cult. The tracker serves their purpose by exposing the CL.

(I'm not considering that Bookwyrm is town and is false claiming. If so, shame on him if he does not make it known and the tracker reveals because of it)

Am I missing something?
Posted July 07, 2016
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drealmer7: Even cristi and dess are leaning towards the 'lurking to the extent of drawing my ire" side of things.
Hey! I-am-not-a-lurker. Not yet anyway.I have job, I have birds to feed and sleep to sleep.

My short opinion on recent matters:
- I think Bookwyrm is legit. He has nothing to be afraid from CL, except for kamikaze thing, which also kills CL himself. Go, TriOptium! And if Bookwyrm was a CL lying about being the Deprogrammer, real one would just fry this lying bastard's brain out.
- We have a luxury of not being rushed into things, so voting No-Lynch seems like a valid and perfectly fine idea. For at the moment, fact is that there is 1 CL vs 3 town power roles. So lets not lynch our weapons prematurely. Add to that a fact that lynching CL day 1 may or may not result in immediate Town win as per rules.

Vote: No-Lynch

- What's all that talk about mechanics and if game started with CL alone or with CL and a goon? Answer is obvious - only (s)he/they know now. And I doubt (s)he/they would share the truth. If anything, we can expect altered facts and lies in the form of "discussing a theory". I just see no help in talking the number of cultists now, because for the moment such talk only opens an opportunity for CL himself to fish for information and trick us.

- I've been writing this post for a few hours now, during small breaks, so don't expect much from me right away.
Posted July 07, 2016
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Vote count

flubbucket: 2 - Fantasysci5, RWarehall
drealmer: 2 - Bookwyrm, Ixamyakxim
Fantasiscy: 1 - agentcarr
no-lynch: 2 - drealmer7, Dessimu

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch

flubbucket, drealmer7 and no-lynch are tied at L-5

Day 1 will end approximately on Sunday 10-th
*************************************************************************

If you find errors in this vote count, please let me know.
Posted July 07, 2016
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cristigale: My vote was RVS, it might not be a bad vote but not convinced yet:

Unvote flubb

@flubb - Under the scenario presented, how would the tracker need to claim except if Bookwyrm is CL?

The Tracker tracks Bookwyrm N1. Bookwyrm does not report who he targeted on N1 until D2:

...........<snip>...............
Since Bookwyrm627 is the one claiming, he should be the one required to speak up with information. There's no need to endanger any other player until his information can be clearly challenged as wrong or lies.

Of course there is the challenge for the tracker to keep alive (unconverted) in order to corroborate Bookwyrm627.

I'm just old fashioned. I don't like claiming. Spirit of the game yada yada yada.....
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drealmer7: .....................

I don't follow your maths. I did a similar thing above ^

...................
You know I'm far too pretty to be good at math.

The post was not thought through since I was rushing out the door. Anyway you understand.....numbers....stuff....
Post edited July 07, 2016 by flubbucket
Posted July 07, 2016
Above post was a merge.

I am all the stupidz.

Punish me for I am a lawbreaker.

Please assuage my self loathing.
Posted July 07, 2016
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drealmer7: To answer when should we start lynching. Ehhh, we can start anytime we get a majority to agree on a player! Have any even partially good suggestions?
I'm a fan of lynching you, based on previously offered misinformation and pushing a strategy that I view as suicidal for town. Your "No Lynch" keeps reminding me of a4plz's "Lets out the power roles and put them to work for us" from the game where scum just needed to kill the power roles to win.

Who (besides Drealmer) objects to lynching Drealmer? If a majority are against it, then I'll drop it (for now).

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drealmer7: Atm, there's just no one I feel that strongly about, and I don't like just killing people "just because", especially when town's chances of doing something good for town are 1/12, and the chances of town doing something good for the cult are 11/12, or 2/12 + 10/12, either way, neither have me confident atm that lynching is a good idea.
Mildly interesting. You think lynching the claimed Deprogrammer is a viable course of action? I'm probably just being petty in pointing that out, though.

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drealmer7: If I'm the CL I'm already fucked if I drew that much suspicion. I don't think it makes sense to answer what I would do in that situation as it could only serve to help the CL think out strategy, and your hypotheticals aren't reality or close to it, imo.
"I'm not answering because it won't ever happen." :P

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drealmer7: but still try to keep all reasonable possibilities in the field of view at the same time. ... I don't find it likely the tracker will claim before they target who they think the CL is likely to be, I don't find it likely we hit a CL or cultist today, and it is more likely we'll hit a PR, so, meh, yeh....ohfuggit, let's kill someone, if we hit a PR, oh well! ...jk
I figure the tracker will claim if he comes up for lynch, regardless of whether he thinks he's close to finding the CL. But the tracker getting close to being lynched is probably outside the realm of likelihood too.

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drealmer7: Having said that, there's lots of lurkers that are beginning to look tasty.
Here's something we agree on. Lurking is especially bad in this game, because it means there is no chance to see a change of behavior once someone is converted.
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionForum (Cult) Mafia #41 - Shodan Awakens!(993 posts)(993 posts)
(993 posts)