Part 1/2 (Apologies in advance for the somewhat terse replies to your well wrought-out points, Mnemon, which I appreciated but can't reproduce in quote blocks, as it'd become too unwieldy to post.)
Mnemon: Islam already has shown that, in a number of places - it's potential to turn secular.
Indeed it has. But, until it actually realizes said potential to a verifiable, durable degree without regressing into the Middle Ages when the going gets tough, the point stands. Germany was razed to kingdom come, twice, but you don't see Visigoths besieging Rome anymore. Greece was occupied, its population displaced, its economy destroyed, and you don't see stratioti trying to reenact the Battle of Fornovo. Russia should, by all accounts, be a Mad Maxesque snowy wasteland, but you don't see the Kievan Rus' pillaging the Caspian sea shores. This also addresses the informative analysis you posted on Muslim countries that were secular for a while.
And I disagree that a majority, of whatever colour, is irrelevant with dealing with the problem. If it were the case than all is hopeless
Not necessarily, as long as you don't give radical minorities tacit support, as the Islamic world does to a far too large degree.
The rhetoric that our politicians and journalists use, and how quick we are to worry about all Muslims in the US or all Muslims in Europe as being potential terrorists, is incredibly damaging.
About as damaging as being aware of potential disease vectors during an outbreak. You're doing the virtue signalling bit again. We're talking the real world with very real threats that must be dealt with in concrete fashion that might not be ideal - this isn't just an intellectual discussion trying to reach synthesis via thesis and antithesis.
It creates the idea that the majority of Muslims in Europe or America can be radicalised, based on a fractional minority.
...which, again, is tacitly supported by the majority, to say nothing of the utter inaction of Muslims living in the West. And therein lies the problem, not in the pearl-clutching that that rhetoric provokes.
This can become a self-fulfilling prophecy in that people who believe themselves to be labelled as enemies may defend themselves violently. It is up to us to focus on the relatively small number of people taking on violent acts
No, it is up to
them to prove they're not enemies, by actions, not platitudinous words mouthed off by their leaders who refuse to shake women's hands. To not yield to base, knee-jerk violence in response to suspicion and even prejudice. To police their own and show the nations that took them in that they're truly invested in protecting it as if it were their home. The burden of proof lies on them.
ISIS - and Al Qaeda tried to do that, too - aim is to play for and hope precisely for a majority of the people in the West to declare anything but their transversal radical minority as irrelevant. Doing so leaves only one thing - repression of Muslims in the West and escalating the conflict. Both things are what ISIS wants us to do.
That's all well and good for a Michael Crichton thriller, the escalating tension of I-know-what-he-thinks-I-know-but-I-can't-do-what-he-thinks-he-knows-I-know, but it fails to account for two things:
1) Many delusional countries, nations, movements wanted war. It ended badly for them, so it's not necessarily falling into the enemy's trap to engage in it.
2) The West's inaction that the IS is counting on as they make inroads into Europe via the radicalized local communities. Which is why they're terrified of Russia, who they know doesn't feck around.
the West must form a strategy that empowers local actors who want to rebuild stable, inter-sectarian states (and these voices do still exist) and, simultaneously, continue to destroy ISIS' infrastructure and state capabilities.
No argument there from me. But that comes after. First, you put out the fire and make sure it doesn't reach you again.
Then you start preventing forest fires.
Everything is complex. To argue otherwise is to argue from ideology, not fact, or research based reasoning.
Conversely, to argue that everything is complex is intellectual masturbation. Research and reasoning can only get you so far; after a point, you have to actually
do something, and it's not always going to be pretty, conciliatory or unanimous, as severe problems entail severe solutions. Which is why we need leaders with stomach for those, not debate-club valedictorians who feel they've won the argument if the other party isn't being civil or engaged in wrongthink.
be specific, please. How and why are the politicians feckless and pusillanimous?
Feckless because of their policies, Merkel being the queen, and pretty much every other leader for being her lapdog (with notable exceptions such as Orbán). The open door immigration policy, as a plain abuse and reinterpretation of the concept of free movement of people in the European Union, is the most treasonous policy to ever have been enacted in the history of the institution. Because of their lack of sense of responsibility to their people, being indifferent to them in favour of this nebulous globalist ideal of an absence of borders and of peaceful/forceful integration of peoples/labor. Because of their utter incompetence in dealing with the most serious threat to Europe for the past 70 years, essentially.
Pusillanimous because they refuse to call the peril by its name and acknowledge it, because they'd rather punish, lock up and censor their own people rather than root out the problem, and because they're more scared of being called the r-word than of seeing the social fabric of their nations torn apart.
How and why do you see populations in Europe as soft and neutered?
Because, after the traumatic events of two world wars, Europeans were taught that vigorous measures are to be avoided at all costs, and that nationalism and notions of ethnicity or native identity are evil and dangerous. Given that these mores were indoctrinated into them during an unprecedented time of peace and growing wealth, the natural and inevitable decadence that comes with prosperity coalesced with the largely unopposed rise of critical theory, which resulted in a complete inversion of what actually makes civilizations strong and made Europe into this huge, bloated bull that still has some big-ass horns, but is loath to use them, mostly because it grew too fat and indolent to even move its neck.
What strategy do you propose that, apparently, in your eyes would be hard and ... gendered (what's the opposite of neutered)? How is that strategy going to help end terrorism?
The opposite of neutered is uncastrated - virile, to take it a step further - as if you, with your excellent grasp of English, didn't know. The fact you can't even acknowledge it (afraid to wound some feminist or egalitarian sensibilities?) is exhibit B of Europe's neutering.
As for what my strategy would be, it's extreme measures for extreme times. Not all of them are tenable in the long-term, but they're most definitely doable for a short and vitally important while:
- An immediate European-wide moratorium on Muslim immigration, travel to and from war-torn areas, a cessation of the open-doors policy, Australian-style sending back of people who arrive via the Mediterranean, and a patrol reinforcement along the borders of non-EU countries, to be determined by a referendum at each member of the European Union. The results will hardly be surprising.
- Immediately revoke the European nationality of any and all individuals frequenting mosques known to be hotbeds of Islamic extremism. Blacklist and deport them as
sine qua non extras of shipments of humanitarian aid, as they'll probably have double nationality and family back there anyway. No questions asked and no appeals to be had.
- Adopt Russia's strategy to target the families of European Muslims guilty of engaging in terrorist acts. If a family member committed a terrorist act or frequents a hotbed of Islamic extremism, their asses get blacklisted and deported as well as
sine qua non extras of shipments of humanitarian aid, and their European nationalities get revoked. No questions asked and no appeals to be had.
- If you're caught on tape, whether it's a Youtube video or CCTV footage, preaching the conquest of the West and the slaying of the infidel, saying Islam will take over, or that you're "in charge now", as is the case in many urban areas in Britain, Sweden, Belgium, etc., your ass gets blacklisted deported as
sine qua non extras of shipments of humanitarian aid, and your European nationality gets revoked. No questions asked and no appeals to be had.
- There is no more "terrorist watch list". As soon as you're on the radar, you get detained. And your ass gets blacklisted and deported as
sine qua non extras of shipments of humanitarian aid, and your European nationality gets revoked. No questions asked and no appeals to be had.
Now, while you may (rightly) argue that this might be fuelling IS or swelling its ranks, as it were, these policies accomplish the vital task of rooting out terrorists - potential or otherwise - living among us, and make it plainly clear that there is a zero-tolerance policy on abetting them, even if tacitly or via inaction. This, combined with the moratorium, ensures it's much more difficult for terrorists to actually be physically present to commit their acts. If they want to engage in actual warfare and try to invade, they know they're toast, so the idea is to nip their attrition war via lone wolves and useful idiots.