It seems that you're using an outdated browser. Some things may not work as they should (or don't work at all).
We suggest you upgrade newer and better browser like: Chrome, Firefox, Internet Explorer or Opera

×
avatar
DaCostaBR: In probability terms, it's the difference between "Wow! That was a million in one shot but you made it!", and "I left this arrow on a table when a sudden storm came in and the wind blew the arrow away and carried it for hundreds of yards, it blasted a window open, the arrow flew through it, and there just happened to be an archery target lying in there, and the arrow just happened to hit the bullseye. Can you believe it?"
avatar
dtgreene: Also, many people don't understand probability, and some things are counter-intuitive.

For example, the birthday paradox: If 23 people are in a room, there is a 50% chance that at least two of them share the same birthday. Doesn't that number seem rather small? (I believe this calculation assumes that nobody is born on February 29, and that all birthdays are equally likely; two assumptions that aren't correct, but which serve to make the calculation simpler.) This chance increases to 99.9% at 75 people, and 100% at 366 (or 367 if you count 2/29) people (thanks to the pigenhole principle).
I had a mind blowing realization the other day. There are two dozen people in my office and every single one has a birthday within six months of mine! I'm gonna need an abacus or something to figure out the odds of that.
avatar
dtgreene: Also, many people don't understand probability, and some things are counter-intuitive.

For example, the birthday paradox: If 23 people are in a room, there is a 50% chance that at least two of them share the same birthday. Doesn't that number seem rather small? (I believe this calculation assumes that nobody is born on February 29, and that all birthdays are equally likely; two assumptions that aren't correct, but which serve to make the calculation simpler.) This chance increases to 99.9% at 75 people, and 100% at 366 (or 367 if you count 2/29) people (thanks to the pigenhole principle).
avatar
Stevedog13: I had a mind blowing realization the other day. There are two dozen people in my office and every single one has a birthday within six months of mine! I'm gonna need an abacus or something to figure out the odds of that.
Says the guy who made name for himself as an intergalactic criminal, killing aliens, and anyone else, who got in his way!
avatar
tinyE: Says the guy who made name for himself as an intergalactic criminal, killing aliens, and anyone else, who got in his way!
You say that like it's a bad thing.
avatar
tinyE: Says the guy who made name for himself as an intergalactic criminal, killing aliens, and anyone else, who got in his way!
avatar
Stevedog13: You say that like it's a bad thing.
The 2nd movie was too confusing!!! :P
avatar
dtgreene: Also, many people don't understand probability, and some things are counter-intuitive.

For example, the birthday paradox: If 23 people are in a room, there is a 50% chance that at least two of them share the same birthday. Doesn't that number seem rather small? (I believe this calculation assumes that nobody is born on February 29, and that all birthdays are equally likely; two assumptions that aren't correct, but which serve to make the calculation simpler.) This chance increases to 99.9% at 75 people, and 100% at 366 (or 367 if you count 2/29) people (thanks to the pigenhole principle).
avatar
Stevedog13: I had a mind blowing realization the other day. There are two dozen people in my office and every single one has a birthday within six months of mine! I'm gonna need an abacus or something to figure out the odds of that.
Sometimes, in mathematics, obvious facts are, indeed, the most useful. Also, it's easy to forget obvious facts sometimes.

For example, let x, y, and z be integers, and that x < y < z. It is rather obvious that z - x must be at least 2.

Similarly, if x <= y and y <= x, then x = y. (It doesn't matter what x and y are, as long as they come from the same ordered set.)

Another example: You can't have an infinite descending sequence of positive integers. Hence, if you have shown that such a sequence exists, and you didn't make a mistake, then an assumption you made must be false. (This can, for example, be used to prove that the square root of 2 is irrational.)
I do "believe".

The only interesting discussion is around "what an alien is".
I'm just going to quietly leave this here.

I like the idea of aliens, but I'm in the camp that they will be totally unrecognizable and incompatible with our own species such that true communication will be impossible. For example, I think that the aliens from the book Solaris are a good representation of what other lifeforms might be like -- totally foreign and altogether different from humankind.
Post edited April 10, 2018 by astroclay
avatar
astroclay: I'm just going to quietly leave this here.

I like the idea of aliens, but I'm in the camp that they will be totally unrecognizable and incompatible with our own species such that true communication will be impossible. For example, I think that the aliens from the book Solaris are a good representation of what other lifeforms might be like -- totally foreign and altogether different from humankind.
"The Andromeda Strain" has a brilliant part about this. "Life" and "Life as we know it" are two totally different things.
avatar
tinyE: "The Andromeda Strain" has a brilliant part about this. "Life" and "Life as we know it" are two totally different things.
Nice! I'll have to check this one out.
avatar
tinyE: "The Andromeda Strain" has a brilliant part about this. "Life" and "Life as we know it" are two totally different things.
avatar
astroclay: Nice! I'll have to check this one out.
Well it's only a couple of pages in the whole book. :P
Some scientists believe that the asteroid belt is an exploded planet.

Maybe we had neighbors a long time ago.....
Depends on what you mean by aliens ? If you mean, do I believe in all those conspiracy theories like Area 51, all these alien sightings and alien obductions stories and that kind of stuff, then my answer is "no". If you ask do I believe that there is someone else in the universe except us, then my answer is "hell yeah". Billions and billions of planets and galaxies and tiny little planet like Earth is only suitable for life ? I just don't believe in that.
Funny thing I was just reading about Solo and then this pops in
Well. That escalated quickly.

I see the point where people say the universe isn't infinite, though. It might or might not, nothing is proven.
avatar
drmike: Some scientists believe that the asteroid belt is an exploded planet.

Maybe we had neighbors a long time ago.....
We'll very soon be able to check this asteroid belt formation theory, something tells me....