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Cultist SimulatorSome really weird probabilities(9 posts)(9 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted June 15, 2018
I've sent Hint (8 edge, 8 lantern) after absolutely ordinary hunter (weary detective) with no special abilities 4 times in a row. It never returned. I generally have an extremely low success rate using Hint to kill hunters, like 1 out of 5 or maybe even less.
However, when I used an ordinary human with just 5 edge, the success was way higher, about 3 out of every 4 times or so.
I've also seen people complaining on similar issues regarding powerful summoned minions. Could you please double-check that there is no bug with probability calculation. If there is none, I'd really love to know at least an estimate chance for an 8 edge minion to kill a regular hunter. From the description, it seems way over 50%, from my experience it's way under.
Post edited June 15, 2018 by Spellsweaver
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Posted June 16, 2018
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Spellsweaver: I've sent Hint (8 edge, 8 lantern) after absolutely ordinary hunter (weary detective) with no special abilities 4 times in a row. It never returned. I generally have an extremely low success rate using Hint to kill hunters, like 1 out of 5 or maybe even less.
However, when I used an ordinary human with just 5 edge, the success was way higher, about 3 out of every 4 times or so.
I've also seen people complaining on similar issues regarding powerful summoned minions. Could you please double-check that there is no bug with probability calculation. If there is none, I'd really love to know at least an estimate chance for an 8 edge minion to kill a regular hunter. From the description, it seems way over 50%, from my experience it's way under.
I don't know how to link to another topic but this has already answered by the dev/creator. It's bad luck. There's 30% chance of failing and you're getting the short stick.
Posted June 16, 2018
Here is the other thread about a similar topic: https://www.gog.com/forum/cultist_simulator/tenacious_hunters
Posted June 17, 2018
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panayotov: I don't know how to link to another topic but this has already answered by the dev/creator. It's bad luck. There's 30% chance of failing and you're getting the short stick.
It's not the same topic. Tenacious ability is its own thing. I am talking about hunters without any abilities defeating 8-edge minion several times in a row while dying easily to 5 edge. Even if it's just bad luck, there is no info available on actual probability so you can't be sure if it's even worth trying to kill a hunter at all. And, specifically, trying to kill them with a powerful summoned minion if those perform worse than ordinary followers.
Post edited June 17, 2018 by Spellsweaver
Posted June 19, 2018
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Spellsweaver: I've sent Hint (8 edge, 8 lantern) after absolutely ordinary hunter (weary detective) with no special abilities 4 times in a row. It never returned. I generally have an extremely low success rate using Hint to kill hunters, like 1 out of 5 or maybe even less.
However, when I used an ordinary human with just 5 edge, the success was way higher, about 3 out of every 4 times or so.
I've also seen people complaining on similar issues regarding powerful summoned minions. Could you please double-check that there is no bug with probability calculation. If there is none, I'd really love to know at least an estimate chance for an 8 edge minion to kill a regular hunter. From the description, it seems way over 50%, from my experience it's way under.
During expeditions only strengh 10 in an ability grants success. Also asking a lv 3 follower (with 10 point ability) to do a job for our cult is always successful. Maybe it's the same with hunting hunters?

I'd try sending after them the servant of Sun-In-Rags. She's difficult to summon, but is winter 10, edge 10 and dubbed the unstoppable force. Of course, you may always serve the annoying hunter some deadly tea.
Posted June 19, 2018
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Eucredes: During expeditions only strengh 10 in an ability grants success. Also asking a lv 3 follower (with 10 point ability) to do a job for our cult is always successful. Maybe it's the same with hunting hunters?

I'd try sending after them the servant of Sun-In-Rags. She's difficult to summon, but is winter 10, edge 10 and dubbed the unstoppable force. Of course, you may always serve the annoying hunter some deadly tea.
You misunderstand my problem. The fact that it's hard to kill a hunter is not much of a problem and I can obviously do it with something like King Crucible. I'd be okay if one Hint attack out of three failed, or even one out of two if I was sure that it's supposed to work this way. What bothers me is that, while the probability isn't stated as guaranteed success, it's stated as "most likely will succeed" and from what I observe it's closer to "most likely will fail". It makes me suspect that there is some mistake in calculations with edge beyond 5 as 5-edge Victor has reasonably high success rate.
Post edited June 19, 2018 by Spellsweaver
Posted June 19, 2018
Remember all those times you got the hunter on the first try? Of course not because that's how the human mind works.


People also often misunderstand how probability works. If you flip a coin and get heads five times in a row, there's a 50% chance it'll end up heads again even though many people will say it's time for tails after 5 times heads. The coin doesn't know about the previous 5 times and neither would a good random number generator.
Posted June 19, 2018
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gnarbrag: Remember all those times you got the hunter on the first try? Of course not because that's how the human mind works.

People also often misunderstand how probability works. If you flip a coin and get heads five times in a row, there's a 50% chance it'll end up heads again even though many people will say it's time for tails after 5 times heads. The coin doesn't know about the previous 5 times and neither would a good random number generator.
Actually, I do remember, that's precisely why I noticed that Hint specifically seems to fail while regular humans don't. But bad luck might indeed be the case, yet I can't know for sure if that's a bad luck, or the probability is actually lower that I thought, or there is a bug. That's why I'm asking for numbers.
Posted June 19, 2018
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Spellsweaver: (…)
You might want to try to grab alexiskennedy’s attention in the thread I linked earlier, he’s the one most apt to check if anything is amiss in these checks.
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Cultist SimulatorSome really weird probabilities(9 posts)(9 posts)
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