So , where are we then? Sometimres its difficult just keeping up!!
We have
Typhoon - under a lot of pressure on Day1, did what anyone would do (and did do!) when forced to roleclaim, claimed a power role - Town Tracker.
Ubivis - under even more pressure than Typhoon was on day 1, this time in day 2. Mainly brought on by himself with a softclaim of Nurse, hinting at the Power Role of Town Doctor. Never actually come right out and said he is in so many words, but its what we're all thinking.
Pazzer - sudden pressure put on after a random vote got the attention of more than a few other players. First time pressure, it wasn't major pressure, but he claimed anyway. Or rather, he 'didnt bother' to, but also dropped out that Jess was Town, leading to him two posts later claiming another major Power Role - Town Cop.
Handy that - every time someone gets close to being lynched , they claim a Power Role.
Theories then....
Jess had a theory that as Typhoon claimed Tracker, and Ubivis softclaimed a doctor role in day one, as neither was lynched, one was telling porkies. She put together a convincing argument that Ubivis was guilty. Many liked the theory (including me) and quickly got Ubivis up to roleclaim level, where he sort of came out as Town Doctor. I still dont think it was the best claim in the world, but I'll leave that for now.
Ubivis claim had the desired effect (for him) - most people backed off. Pazzer suddenly found himself thrust into the limelight with an untimely random vote, and VERY quickly got to L -1 - he claimed Town Cop pretty much straight away - which leads to all sorts of ramifications.
If Pazzer is telling the truth and is Town Cop, then we must also believe that Jesskitten is also Town. Jess for me hasn't done anything inherently scummy, but is implicated in a big way if you buy into other theories.
If Jesskitten is Town, does it lend credibility to her theory about Ubivis and Typhoon? Sort of, but not really - that theory is all about whether you believe Typhoons claim and roleblock claim. Does the Mafia even have a roleblocker? is it a common Mafia role? I dont know. Typhoons claim - Tracker. The weakest of the three power roles.
If Typhoon is telling the truth, Ubivis looks like scum, if you believe a) the Mafia picked up on the softclaim, and b) they didnt roleblock him because he is Mafia. They may have seen the softclaim and deliberately not blocked him, taking the chance on the power role, just to create confusion!
Ubivis telling the truth - that he is the Town Doctor - would not really put anyone else under pressure if lynched (except perhaps me for keeping my vote with him for so long!!). It makes Typhoon look a little more guillty i guess, and then by association also Jesskitten, but then you have Pazzer saying Jess is Town, so it implicates him as well.
We all agree a no-lynch is a bad idea at this stage? Is it a bad idea, given we have so many role claims knocking about? I think it is, you find out more by action than inaction, but I'm open to arguments on this course of action.
So, who to lynch? Take a chance on one of the three stated power roles, or go for someone else and see what the night brings?
Personally I still think one of the three is lying. I know I've been pushing Ubivis, and I'm still not happy with him, but theres the danger of knocking off the Town Doctor. Should he flip scum, it lends credibility to Jess, who fingered him early, and by association Pazzer, who claimed Jess was Town when he claimed. If he flips Town, we're not really any better off, dont learn a huge amount about anyone else and we lose the Town Doc.
Of the three roles, Typhoons is the least powerful - plus , we would learn a lot whichever way he flips if we lynched him. If he flips scum, it immediately opens up suspicion on Jess , and by inferral , Pazzer - simply because Jess was quick to ask Typhoon about his ability and whether or not he was blocked, only on the re-read has that stuck out to me as a classic early Mafia like ploy, hatched in the night. Pazzer claiming Jess is town only adds himself to the list. So , if Typhoon flips scum, I think we have one or two other major suspects straight away!
If Typhoon flips town, it lends credibility to Jess, therefore to Pazzer who claimed Jess is town, and puts the pressure back on Ubivis.
Lynch Pazzer? Take the risk of lynching possibly the Town Cop? A risky ploy, not one I would advocate -but if he flipped Scum, it immediately makes Jess a hot favourite as fellow Mafia......if he flips Town , we lose the Cop, but it makes Jess almost certainly town.
Or , do we go for someone else? Who? Azarr is very quiet for me, Enterprise also doesnt say a huge amount - being quiet is not in itself scummy, but not actively trying to root out scum can be seen that way.
Personally? I think the fact that ALL THREE claimed power roles when at L -2 or worse means at least one is lying. We have to find out who that liar is, and it won't happen by being passive.
Purely as its the least powerful claimed role, and if I'm wrong it doesnt hurt us too much,
vote Typhoon
ok - now you can all do what you normally do, and rip my theories to shreds...;o)