New idea!

Age claim, anyone? Or, since my role PM doesn't mention a specific age, perhaps I should rather say:
Youth/adult claim, anyone?

And before you all go apeshit looking for what I am or am not saying - I think it's an awesome idea, and am totally for.

Good thinking, Z-man!

I don't really see the point in age claim. It is just a role playing thing. The Killer can be a young (slept with the principal; drug addict and he did not got more stuff) or even adult (maybe the drugs as well).

I would prefer to stick to the reasons already given to not confuse everyone more than already done :)

Robbeasys post was really good in my opinion with just one fault. I don't trust you in saying you are no Mafia ;). (How shall I, I don't know each others roles).

Another possibility is, that only citizen have voted Zchinque yet as they thought the first posts were quite anoying and they want to get rid of him. This was my first intend. My view changed since my vote, as I understood his bahaviour a bit more and do like it now.

unfortunately, no one really made a big mistake yet, that proofs that he is Mafia (or even revealed the identity of the other Mafia members).

Because of that, I can't just jump on the train by voting bazilisek at the moment, as I am not convinced yet that he is Mafia.

Let's see who voted Zchinque before:

- Azarr: Absolutely no clue about him. Maybe good in disguise his intentions
- bazilisek: Already explained, I am just not convinced yet, that he is Mafia
- Ubivis: Hmm, that's me... no I am no Mafia, never bin and never want to
- Typhoon45: already was one of the 4 candidates that are suspicious to me because of his posts
- Rebbeasy: Has really good thoughts already and made vulnerable additions to the discussion. so it is 50:50 to me at the moment, if he is or not

I do not see any particular benefits or drawbacks of that, so why not.

Why, that's a convinient argument. True, but convinient - you're under a bit of flak from Robbeasy, Zchinque suggests an age claim and you get slightly defensive? Now, I do agree that the mobsters can be of any age, but an age claim will not really teach us that much at the moment. Consider me wishywashy on this, for the reasons that I am not against it, but I will not join the movement, as I just do not think we will learn much.

Or perhaps I should be against, as the mobsters can then learn more about us, and in such a way make a more educated estimate of our roles?

Perhaps age claim is not the best idea after all...

On Robbeasy's ideas. He makes good points, and I feel that Zchinque is worthy of some scrutiny at the moment. I'll keep my vote on bazilisek, but consider it a lighter vote.

hmm...

benefits:
- we might get an idea, what age the mafia could be at a later stage of the game

drawback:
- Mafia could use this information to confuse us
- Could mislead us all, if the Mafia is a mix from young and old

In my opinion it is worse for us townies to reveal the role by now.

I agree, a role claim would be the worse, but an age claim does not seem to have the strongest benefit at the moment. The nature of the mafia is, at current, too shrouded. We know nothing about them bar the flavour text from the first posts.

The point of an age claim, which by the way certainly doesn't have anything to do with role playing (mafia is not a role playing game), is not to find out that someone is an adult, and then claim that makes them mafia, or anything like that. Heck, the point isn't for it to find mafia at all - at this point.

The point is to use it for future reference. It helps lock mafia into their claims, while (probably) not giving away any useful knowledge from the townies.
Without knowing the setup, it is impossible to tell if a soft claim of this sort will give any valuable results down the line, but it is very unlikely to in any way harm the town.
It's a low-risk play with possible rewards down the line.

Anyway, seeing as Rob's post seems to be all the rage these days. Unlike the rest, seemingly, I am not all that impressed with it. It's a good effort, and I commend him for putting his theories forwards - more should do the same - but there are, as I see it, some critical flaws in it.

By the way, Rob is town.

I would be very surprised if the setup doesn't have exactly 3 mafia. Actually, it wouldn't necessarily be that easy. It would require a good deal of coordination.

Let's say in this hypothetical situation that there are exactly two mafia who are not voting for me. Let's also, for the sake of argument, assume that I am town, and therefore that the mafia would want to see me hang.
Even though, at the moment, I would be lynched if they both vote for me, they would need to set it up. They should preferably vote within a rather short time frame, otherwise it is possible that someone else will unvote, and one of the mafia may have jeopardized their position.
Now, as you know, we have players from all over the Western world, with varying time zones to follow, and even players from the same or similar time zones might have wildly different times when they are usually online. This level of coordination is hard to pull off when they can't communicate outside this thread (I'm assuming the mafia don't have daytalk here).

And even if they could coordinate it, would it be a good idea?

Let's say the two mafia pile on their votes, and I am lynched. Once I turn up town (arguably even if I turn up scum) they are in Hell and hot water, and they have if not outed themselves, then at least put two of their own under [i]very heavy[/ii] scrutiny - for what? - the life of a single, random townie. That is not a good trade for the scum.
Remember, it was very early in the day, Day 1 no less, and I was (and still am) unclaimed. That means I could be just a vanilla townie, but I could also be a cop, a doc, or some other power role. Townies have [i]absolutely no reason to rush through a lynch under those circumstances - townies don't lynch unclaimed players (in general). The mafia want to appear as townie as possible, while furthering their goals. Lynching unclaimed players early in day 1 is, by that token, counterproductive to their long term goals, even if it would technically benefit them in the short term. I disagree, for the above stated reasons.
Now, it is entirely possible that two mafia were voting for me. I'm fairly confident that it's either one or two. The mafia want to push town wagons, so they can't really afford to not have any on it, but at the same time, they don't want to act too much in unison, so at least one is likely to stay off.

Zchinque provides some fairly good points on the mafia situation, I must say. It would make sense in either way that the mafia would not be so desperate for a random lynching. It would narrow down the number of suspects a bit too much.

On the age claim, I think you're right, actually, and perhaps an age claim would provide some idea, if not now, then, as you say, down the line.

another thought... a good mafia might even try to goad us against each other.

Maybe this is the reason, why Zchinque or bazilisek have not been lynched yet.

Let's see, who voted and who did not:

Typhoon45 (Voted for Zchinque)
bazilisek (Voted for Zchinque)
Ubivis (Voted for Zchinque)
Robbeasy (Voted for Zchinque)
Azarr (Voted for Zchinque)
Pazzer (Voted for Bazilisek)
Zchinque (Voted for A1)
jesskitten (Voted for Typhoon45)
enterprise2004
nmillar
A1
Damnation

at this point 2 votes were missing. We had 3 participants voted someone else (okay, only 2, as Zchinque would not vote himself, I guess *gg*).
nmillar, A1, Damnation and enterprise did not vote at all (a possible Mafia sign if I am right with my thesis).
pazzer and jesskitten voted someone else but could have lynched Zchinque (which makes them suspicious as well to me but maybe only rescued him as they were the only ones who understood his intention).

Because of that, my look is at the 4 no-voters. From the experience of a 12 player game, a Mafia of 3 is usual, but who know what Damuna had set up to make the game more funny (more than 230 posts on day 1, without any lynch *gg*, she is laughing I think).



enterprise2004
Mentioned, that his internet connection is not working well. Hmm, good idea, but can we trust in that?

nmillar
Maybe it is just because he is too nice to be Mafia. Has anyone ever mentioned that he could be Mafia? Maybe a good hider?

A1
Was the first to be voted and no one else was jumping on that train.

Damnation
Highly active in the discussion.


hmm... that's it so far... only new Brainstorming stuff from me to think about. Will have a closer look on what I wrote later, when I am done with my RL work :)

Err, what? I have voted for bazilisek? It's even noted in the latest vote count.
And you mention a thesis? What thesis? All you say is that you suspect us no-voters, even though many of them already have voted. I'm intrigued, why do you say we have no voted, and what is your thesis?

Looks like another slow day at work for me, so join me, if you will, for a thinking out loud session of my own. (By the by, I'm not sure I entirely follow Ubivis's logic in his post, and while I agree the no-voters are to be scrutinised further, there are more interesting waters to hunt in.)

Coming back to Robbeasy's post, even if I do not quite agree with the conclusions, the premise is solid (Zchinque agrees here and so do I): at least one, perhaps two of the following five are exceedingly likely to be mafia:

Azarr, bazilisek, Ubivis, Typhoon45, Robbeasy

I know I'm not, and Robbeasy and Ubivis happen to be the two players I have been suspecting the least for quite some time now. This leaves me with Azarr and Typhoon. That's a 50:50 even if the choice was made purely randomly, which are not bad chances at all. And of the two, I'm leaning towards Typhoon, and I'd like to hear more from him today. Therefore,

vote Typhoon45.

it was just a "free minute from work" Brain Storming to become a few new ideas. No offense at all, jus trying to figuring out possibilities.
The vote I mentioned was the one from the beginning... might have stated it for a better understanding. The thesis is stated in my post. The possiblity that the no-voters in the beginning could be the Mafia to figure out who the townies suspect.

I would take you out, for now, of the suspicious people, as you were really active with good reasons from the beginning.

Just skimmed through the thread really quick, and the only no-voter we have is actually Al1. He's fencesitting quite a lot, actually. The question is just how much of his fence sitting can actually be attributed to his inexperience? I doubt it can be attributed much, to be honest, and the fact that he did not vote for Zchinque when he was L-2 would likely be attributed to that he could be scrutinized far more should Zchinque bite the dust and be declared town.

If we were to look only at the five who have voted on Zchinque, I think we will find that the most suspecious, at least in my opinion, is Typhoon45, followed by Azarr and lastly bazilisek. Ubivis seems slightly confused by all this and his arguing is sometimes a bit confused in itself - I think this is more a town behaviour than mafia (Being confused, that is). bazilisek, I'm tempted to say that what I personally have against you is beginning to look more and more circumstancial at best, so unvote bazilisek. But your drunkeness excuse is still too convinient for my liking. Robbeasy seems more town than mafia, but he hasn't said so much in way of pushing himself in one or the other direction.

Should I vote for one right now, I would probably vote for Typhoon45. This is based on the "at leat one mafia on Zchinque" argumentation, and he seems the more suspecious according to the points jesskitten has pointed out. If not Typhoon, then I'd place my bet on Al1, due to his fencesitting.
But, according to who I am most convinced of right now, vote Typhoon45.

I like those arguments and you are right... I am absolutely confused... I hope this is getting better later :)

Especially, when I have a few days off in the near future (last holiday is more than a year ago).

To get the things forward as I think Typhoon is more suspicious than bazilisek:

vote Typhoon45

Thanks for your vote of confidence - I really hope youre not Mafia, otherwise I'm going to look more than a little stupid at some point....;o)

I did say my theory had a few assumptions in it - how could any not have, with the little info we get on day 1? I see the point of timezones - I'm lucky in that i work from home, so can monitor the thread most of the day, then again for half the night if im up and about (which i usually am), but I can understand that some people might only get an hour or two a day, which makes it difficult to coordinate.

But - do the Mafia not get chance to talk before day 1 starts? I thought they did usually?? Can Moderator clear that one up for us? If they DID, then co-ordination was possible, if not, then Zchinques point stands.

I also take his point on the Mafia exposing themselves by piling in - wouldnt be a good move for them. So thats part of my theory in tatters, but I still think like Zchinque theres at least one if not two Mafia members in that list.

Bazilisek is still my vote - I didnt like his early posting, was a bit too hysterical, and the push for a lynch by badgering others was a massive tell for me. Explaining it away by 'drunken posting' and imploring us to ignore that solitary one doesnt wash with me.

No theory is fully watertight, but its the strongest i've got at the moment...