Posted February 12, 2011
Dominic998: I'm not sure whether 2/7 is really good enough odds, unless were desperate (and maybe we are!). Just bear in mind that that strategy is more likely to end in a win for the mafia (I know that may be an obvious point to make but just bear it in mind). Unless we rate our odds of winning this by judgement as less than about 5.7% (the chances of lynching, by random, both mafia today and tomorrow, if my calculations are correct, its been a while since I did any gambling :P).
Your vote doesn't bother me, and I can see why one would put nmillar's theory to the test (And I share his theory too). But what does bother me is that you call me Dam! Could you at least not add an N or just spell out the entire name? I am NOT a nation of beaver products! Anyhow, more serious matters. Any way you cut it, a nolynch will NOT bring us in a better scenario tomorrow. In fact, it will be worse. Otherwise tomorrow's vote will have to be just as convincing as today's must. For a nolynch tomorrow will bring 6 suspects, while a wrong lynch today will bring only 5 suspects. Consider that 6 will still require 4 votes, but a wrong lynch there will bring victory for the mafia. A nolynch tomorrow (Two subsequent nolynches) will bring us to where a wrong lynch today will bring us tomorrow. I hope that rubbish made any lick of sense to you :p
So yes, a nolynch COULD provide us with a more cool head, one less suspect, but a wrong lynch tomorrow would then spell instant death for us all, and a wrong lynch with 6 players left is more likely than a wrong lynch with 5 players left.