kohlrak: Lockdowns are ineffective: the primary locations where people come into contact with each other are stores, family gatherings, and jobs, which are all the exceptions to these lockdowns. While one might include gyms and restaurants to this, these are often far more sparcely populated.
real.geizterfahr: The goal of lockdowns isn't to eliminate every single contact between humans, but to reduce them. By closing gyms and restaurants (closed spaces, where lots of people talk loudly or breathe heavily) and restricting people's movement, you're "buying" some margin to keep the rest of your industry going.
And lockdowns aren't ineffective. They're basically the only measure that got the number of infections anywhere down. Look at any country you want: lockdown -> freedom -> some restrictios -> some more restrictions -> heavy restrictions -> lockdown -> less restrictions -> more restrictions -> lockdown...
And you find that what people do is compensate. Humans are the most adaptive creatures that we're aware of, and when you say you can't "go to to the gym and hang out with your gym buddies," they're now "going to the park to hang out with their gym buddies." Closing the restaurant? Oh, hey, your dinner date can come over to your house (less safe for those tinder dates, but hey, do you really expect people to quit having recreational sex? Don't worry, my governor, Wolfe of Pennsylvania, actually ordered people to wear masks while having sex).
You know what limited the amount of people around me? Actual cases, which scared people. We have this problem where everything that happens is "over there" until it's "here," and we act completely differently. It's like Christians who "believe" in God, but don't act as if He is around (there is no "realization"). Bombs are being dropped on middle-eastern countries, children, pets, old people, innocent lovers, etc were all dying, and "that's sad" or "what a shame." There were cases in China as early as November 2019, and people were dropping dead, but, hey, stopping flights from China during a major outbreak there is "racist." Oh no, there's a major outbreak in a city near you (maybe within your city, but at the other side of your city), but, hey, we always knew that was "the bad district." Terrorist attacks in Paris france? Unless you live in Paris, that's "over there," so let's show our support with some french flags and make no attempts to pressure lawmakers to improve security. Antifa "peacefully protesting" in stores? Nope, it's not my store, not my city. How about AIDS in the LGBTQIA+ community? Nah, I'm not gay. School shootings! Oh wait, we love each other and support each other in our community, and even our outcasts aren't that bad. Oh, hey, there's this crazy guy called Adolf Hitler putting "undesirables" in giant prisons and offing them. No way Russians would build Gulags or that americans would mass imprison Japanese people! Why don't we also ignore his crazy rants about a better world under Germany's rule, 'cause he could never come over here. Oh, hey, that crazy ideology where a country straight up orders a bunch of farmers to farm their fields without getting a single bite of their crop, thus they starve to death 'cause they don't want shot, yeah, that crazy thing called "socialism" could never come here. Syphilis in the native american community? Turns out, this is not a new phenomenon to humanity, but we were the same way over a hundred years ago. No way any of this can happen
here, until it does. If you want real results, you need to show humanity how likely "over there" is somehow going to turn into "over here" without warning, and good luck with that task.
The problem with all these rules and restrictions is humanity. We're totally incapable of following some basic, simple rules. When I leave the house, I see people ignoring distances and protection all the time. Kids sticking their heads together to watch some stupid video on a smartphone, people ignoring distances in wating lines (it doesn't go faster just because you're closer -.-), people having a distance of less than half a meter while smoking and blowing the smoke into each others faces... I see a total lack of awareness everywhere. And this is exactly why there isn't a single rule or restriction that has any effect. If you don't BAN social life, infections won't go down. Sad but true.
I'd love to see you somehow pull that off, just as an exercise. I've actually had people argue they shouldn't wear masks, because masks didn't keep them from getting the virus when they wore one all the time while surrounded by people who didn't. Imagine how ignorant people could be, but, hey, I bet that part about masks protecting the people around the wearer, not the wearer, is actually new information for most people. And, i'd bet most of the people reading it actually think i'm full of shit. You see, instead of teaching people basic biology, economics (my god, people don't even know how to write a damn check), etc, we're busy teaching them the same history and math every year (the argument is a "retention problem," but i'd argue that this is easily mitigated by focusing on that which makes the lessons appear practical), activism (how many times we going to give the same useless "abstinence" speeches and expect kids with hormones, porn, free condoms, tinder, etc not to take advantage of it, or the ever famous anti-bullying campaigns that don't work, or the anti-drug campaigns, etc), and, rumor has it, gender pronouns! Look, if we could have all this other crap in addition to teaching what is practical, rather than replacing what is practical, I wouldn't care. Lessons need to be tangible to students, too, of course. In 12th grade, no one cares how many cookies sally has anymore: they're worried about how far they can stretch their Ramen noodles for the next 4-8 years to go through the same thing they've been going through for the past 13 or 14 years.
Sure, it'd be more effective to shut down EVERYTHING for two or three weeks, so you could say that those lockdowns are kinda "ineffective". But this'd cost way more than to just compensate some restaurants.
Absolutely, but what we're doing is just costing us. At the end of the day, the things that are most dangerous are either exceptions or blatently flouted (like mask wearing). In my area, on October 31st, there was a massive "halloween parade" where "nobody was wearing masks" from what I was told. Then there was a small outbreak about a month later (surprise, it's not 2-days to 2-weeks 'cause it's not a flu, despite what our CDCs tell us) right around Thanksgiving, another major holiday where families travel all over the country to be together! Imagine another 2-weeks to a month later for Christmas! Hey, everyone, how my fellow americans feeling right now? Kicker? Republicans were largely saying it's all a hoax (big surprise, for reasons stated a few pages ago regarding politicization of the issue), and democrates were joining in, too, just not explaining why they made exceptions. At the end of the day, everyone is still treating it as "over there" not "over here," just different people have different excuses. I'd love for someone to properly explain why they can't breath through a surgical mask, but, hey, every one who told me such was not wearing one and i didn't want to stick around long enough to find out. It's alot safer over the internet.
But, hey, i predicted this all years ago back during the Ebola scare. I said "well, if anything that was ever actually high contagious got out, we'd be in real trouble." When i worked at this one nursing home, i was told that if I didn't get the influenza vaccine, i would have to wear a mask all winter. I was told this after i got the jab (thought it was mandatory to prevent getting fired), so i wore a mask all winter, anyway. Next year i didn't get the shot, and wore surgical masks all "flu season." The real kicker, when the flu vaccines were announced to be ineffective that year (which regularly happens, because they gotta guess the strain),
surprisingly I was still the only one who had to wear a mask. Oh, and then there was a norovirus outbreak, and they put up signs saying that wearing a mask was useless, that it's just "some unknown stomach bug that only spreads by failure to wash your hands." Yeah, all these kitchen staff members, administrators, etc were all just in there digging in the dirty diapers of the residents, i'm sure, oh and failing to wash their hands afterwards. I was one of the precious few people in the facility that didn't get it: the others all wore masks like me.
That's something I never understood. If you're going to close shopping centers (for example), simply do it! But don't tell people that they have two days left to go there! Guess where everyone here went when they did this two weeks or so ago... It's so goddamn stupid to announce this a few days before it takes effect.
I don't know what it's like in Spain, but most people around the world don't have more than, maybe, two week's worth of food in storage, at the most. Some people only have maybe a day or two. For factories, arrangements must be made to attempt to either compensate or close. A lockdown isn't simply: Ok, you can stay home for a few days. Depending on the nature of the lockdown, it can have heavy consequences for a particular industry. Not only that, but "warning" offers a grace period for people who might not have things like internet access to find out that a lock down is even occuring (yes, these people actually do exist, and i know a few: we can discuss the problems with this in another topic, because it sure as hell isn't simple).