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AnonHQ on the coronavirus
Post edited April 25, 2020 by fr33kSh0w2012
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francksteel:
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Moonbeam: My apologies, now understand what you meant.
I'm sorry Moonbeam that you took my last post for you. I had no problem with yours.
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Post edited April 26, 2020 by francksteel
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francksteel:
The idea of only socially isolating the elderly is not realistic. "Okay, 95 year old grandma, go stay by yourself in this room for 2 months. We'll come to give you food and talk for a few minutes, but we'll have to basically wear hazmat suits while we do it".

The current system is feasible because you have the entire family locked down together. If only the elderly will be locked down, how would you accomplish that? Everyone build a separate room for their grandparents? Send them off to a concentration camp?

The way it would end up would be grandpa and grandma staying at home, everyone else going about their day as usual (with social distancing measures, which, as you pointed out, isn't enough), and then coming back home infected, and infecting grandma and grandpa any way.

Also, focusing only on mortality rate isn't enough. Sure, not so many people will die, but how many will need hospitalisation? Those people will clog up and overburden the healthcare system, so that not only other people with covid19 wouldn't be able to be treated, but people with cancer, broken legs, gunshot wounds, liver problems, they would all be affected too.
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francksteel:
:) +1
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Post edited April 26, 2020 by francksteel
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francksteel: AS you say, the mortality rate is probably less than 1% - I don't believe it's 0.03% : here's why :
if it was true, as there is nearly 30 000 deaths in France, that would mean that 30 000 / 0.03% = 100 millions people in France were infected. We are only 65 millions.
It might be more in your neck of the woods due to a higher percentage of the population being elderly or vulnerable....there are MANY factors to consider.

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francksteel: So, you see what it means for Dr. Erikson's claims...
As per saying they are claims: he has the data to back it up. Some might be false positives, as it were, but further testing is likely to ferret out the truth of the matter.

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francksteel: So, back to HCQ : if the mortality rate is around 0.5% (with 80% people having low to mild symptoms), what kind of proof that give that Tom Hanks got HCQ and revored ?
Just a correction: I believe it was his wife that took it(although he might've taken it as well).

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francksteel: Take your pick : if you have 0.5% chance of dying from Covid if you take nothing, if HCQ lowers (not proven, but well), this to 0.3% but also give you 1% of dying from heart failure (you must take a high dose - near the lethal dose - of HCQ to maybe lower the chance of dying from covid). Do you still take HCQ ?
Well obviously under NORMAL circumstances one likely wouldn't take such and doctors wouldn't likely give them such.....but under exceptional circumstances where one is sure to die of a disease or ailment, if something can save them and they will likely die anyways shouldn't they try anything they can(that might work) to survive?

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francksteel: As for now, I didn't read any true expert study about that (Doctors Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi are not experts, t hey are urgentists, not epidemiologist, not virologist, not statisticians... They only made a rule of 3... And I think I proved, by using the same way as them how it leads to stupid results.)
Data you disagree with shouldn't be cast aside unless it can be proven false....that's what one should logically do in this case.

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francksteel: Remember also that if more people get severly ill, health system cannot sustain the arrivals (meaning more people dying because of insufficient bed, respirators...) , people will also panick and will self quarantine and essential lines could break (markets and food transports), meaning more panick and more deaths.
People will likely also die due to food shortages/mental health issues/unemployment caused by lockdowns.

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francksteel: That would certainly confirm what you think :
Stats for NYC and from China :
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

In NY : 45-64 y.o. represent 24% of the deaths but nearly all of them had underlying conditions (1343/1581) . What I don't know is how many % of the population has underlying conditions ("include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease"), and how many people are close relatives to people having an underlying conditions.

China (numbers from feb. 28) says that the death rate (probability of death if infected) of the 40-49 is 0.4% (but I have no figures of the underlying conditions)
Interesting info to think on...thanks for this.

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francksteel: Another question : if you only lockdown elderly and vulnerable for 1 or 2 months, and that other do social distancing, wear masks (you enforce them to do so ?) in public :

- if social distancing/ wearing mask is enough to slow the spread (singapore seems to say it isn't, but let think it is for now):

the virus will still be there, how do you unlock elderly/vulnerable after 2 months ? the virus will still be spreading (no collective immunity, social distancing was said to be enough to not spread wide the virus) and will attack them as soon as they go out. So you need to lockdown them for 1,2,3 years, until we have a vaccine, if one can be made for more than 70% of the population.
If we need to quarantine that long then it'd likely be much better to quarantine just the elderly/vulnerable(as I said) and get supplies(food/medicine) to them via various channels.

That way the young and able can work to support them(either with money to family and friends to buy supplies, or to make needed stuff for said isolated populations, or in other ways.

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francksteel: - if social distancing is not enough, and the virus spread quite fast between people "not vulnerable" :

the death rate seems to be 0.2% for <50 years old with no comorbidities.
in one month you would have infected let say 50% of the less than 50 years old
on a country like France, that means around 15 millions people infected.
which means 30 000 deaths (same as the number of deaths we already have... but majority of elderly)

which means 500 000 to 1.5 millions people in hospital --> we can't do that --> more deaths.
And we can't keep people locked down for too long, or people will STARVE or lose their jobs then STARVE.....among other such bad things....and people will die that way.

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francksteel: I still don't know how many people will die because of economic shutdown.
But I still think that money and economic rules are only that : human rules and conventions that you can change, while deaths and nature rules you cannot change.
You can always erase a debt*, you never can erase a death.
It's likely not as simple as erasing debts......people need jobs to make money, and jobs aren't made quickly out of thin air. Once they lose said jobs it might be very hard for them to get another one.

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francksteel: *and it can be a very very good idea for the economic health to erase from time to time ALL debts.
Agreed

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francksteel: I almost forgot to say : I'm among the 5% richest person in my country, so I would be impacted by the erasure of debts. I don't care.
If sincere that is nice of you to say/be okay with, if I may say so.

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francksteel: Even more, speaking egoistically : losing all my earnings will not change my life, living in a country with 20% unemployed, more violence, certainly will change it.
The problem being many more losing their jobs could kill off as many or more that died from the virus so far.....we cannot keep people locked up forever, and we cannot wait years for a vaccine(if one is even possible)....so we will(as a world) have to make a choice soon, I think....and if I may be honest i'm glad I don't have to make it.

(I second guess too much and i'd likely not be able to make a call quickly enough and always worry I made the wrong one).
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babark: The idea of only socially isolating the elderly is not realistic. "Okay, 95 year old grandma, go stay by yourself in this room for 2 months. We'll come to give you food and talk for a few minutes, but we'll have to basically wear hazmat suits while we do it".

The current system is feasible because you have the entire family locked down together. If only the elderly will be locked down, how would you accomplish that? Everyone build a separate room for their grandparents? Send them off to a concentration camp?
You are being hyperbolic, imo.

People could likely easily do it via means such as asking the elderly to stay in their rooms and having them(elderly family members) social distance/not touch many surfaces/etc when needing to leave their room.

OR they could(with govt help or on their own if they have the means) pay for their relatives to stay somewhere else for a period of time(some areas are using hotels already to host those without homes or those who are vulnerable).

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babark: The way it would end up would be grandpa and grandma staying at home, everyone else going about their day as usual (with social distancing measures, which, as you pointed out, isn't enough), and then coming back home infected, and infecting grandma and grandpa any way.
That wouldn't happen as much(if at all) if they did the above and maintained said procedures IN the home as well as outside the home.

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babark: Also, focusing only on mortality rate isn't enough. Sure, not so many people will die, but how many will need hospitalisation? Those people will clog up and overburden the healthcare system, so that not only other people with covid19 wouldn't be able to be treated, but people with cancer, broken legs, gunshot wounds, liver problems, they would all be affected too.
They are already turning away some patients with other issues at some hospitals even WITH the lockdowns in place....also doing such things to flatten the curve means it will take much longer than usual to get past this, likely leading to other problems.
Post edited April 25, 2020 by GameRager
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GameRager: That wouldn't happen as much(if at all) if they did the above and maintained said procedures IN the home as well as outside the home.
"Ask people to please wear a mask and wipe down Grandpa's plate and wear gloves when giving him food"? And how would that be enforced? You want official inspectors coming into people's homes to make sure that the elderly are properly isolated? Again, not practical in the least. Earlier in this thread someone was complaining about the "drastic measures" of an old man with the virus having to communicate with his family via iPad or something ("Poor old guy, almost at death's door, can't even see his family in person!"), when in fact, that would be the most appropriate way.

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GameRager: They are already turning away some patients with other issues at some hospitals even WITH the lockdowns in place....also doing such things to flatten the curve means it will take much longer than usual to get past this, likely leading to other problems.
From what I understand, they've separated hospitals to deal with the virus vs other issues, which is why, for example in NYC, the extra beds (from the ship and the re-done government centre) weren't being used for the corona virus patients, rather for other issues. Makes sense to quarantine the covid19 patients.
Post edited April 25, 2020 by babark
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Post edited April 26, 2020 by francksteel
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francksteel: Got a reminder of the moderator that we must not speak of economy in these forums.

As I said to him : I was stupid to think that a disease and how it is taken care of is completely independant of the economic, social and political system.

So, I will let fake news propapagating here, I will let people suggesting drinking disinfectant, suggesting not to wear masks.

That seems to be OK with the forum rules.

Ho, GOG, don't ask me anymore money. That's economic and so that will be against MY rules.

I hope you will be consistent with yourselves and stop making posts about YOUR economic system, local prices, DRM or not etc.. And ask people to help you or give advice about that.
That's economic and political.
They probably meant that only some tiny excerpts from your posts were against the rules but I get why you got upset.

I just wanted to let you know that I liked reading your posts in this thread for your more pessimistic view, just as I like Dray2k posts for his optimism. Anyway stay safe.
Post edited April 26, 2020 by TonyMarqulis
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Great, now we lost the voice of reason in this thread...
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babark: Earlier in this thread someone was complaining about the "drastic measures" of an old man with the virus having to communicate with his family via iPad or something ("Poor old guy, almost at death's door, can't even see his family in person!"), when in fact, that would be the most appropriate way.
That might work(i.e. keep people apart and connected via technological means)....also have them stay at other sites like I said earlier(they are hosting sick people in hotels and such already, so why not the vulnerable who aren't sick?).

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babark: From what I understand, they've separated hospitals to deal with the virus vs other issues, which is why, for example in NYC, the extra beds (from the ship and the re-done government centre) weren't being used for the corona virus patients, rather for other issues. Makes sense to quarantine the covid19 patients.
Agreed

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francksteel: So, I will let fake news propapagating here, I will let people suggesting drinking disinfectant, suggesting not to wear masks.
No one here suggested drinking disinfectant, or not wearing masks(I said I don't want to wear one but I would if I had to...which I am doing now when I go out due to the law).
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Also(and I am being sincere with all this):

I am sorry to hear the mods/CMs contacted you(they do it to me all the time).

That said, I would hate to see you leave over this, so if you want you can use the quicktopics to post anything the mods/CMs might not like and post the rest here.
Post edited April 26, 2020 by GameRager
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TonyMarqulis: I just wanted to let you know that I liked reading your posts in this thread for your more pessimistic view, just as I like Dray2k posts for his optimism.
I like near everyone's posts(either because I agree with them or because they offered a differing POV).

I liked their posts and Kai2's posts, and also those of several others who chimed in.....and when someone "bows out"(either due to their own choosing or mod intervention) who was contributing to the thread it is always a loss.

That said, I will be keeping the thread going for those using it, and if anyone who wants to post anything GOG might not allow or like they can do so(if they wish) on the quicktopics linked in the OP post.
Post edited April 26, 2020 by GameRager
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GameRager:
Yes, I didn't mean to belittle the contribution of others to this thread (especially since I didn't contribute anything myself), I just think that francksteel and Dray2k are, let's say on opposite sides of the spectrum on this matter and that's all I meant.
Post edited April 26, 2020 by TonyMarqulis
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TonyMarqulis: Yes, I didn't mean to belittle the contribution of others to this thread (especially since I didn't contribute anything myself), I just think that francksteel and Dray2k are, let's say on opposite sides of the spectrum on this matter and that's all I meant.
Oh, I hope you don't think I was accusing you of anything(like belittling anyone).....I was just listing some of the various contributors to the thread that posted contributions here(of course I likely missed a few as some didn't post much and I have bad memory with remembering some things[like who posted to my own threads sometimes]). :)
Post edited April 26, 2020 by GameRager