francksteel: AS you say, the mortality rate is probably less than 1% - I don't believe it's 0.03% : here's why :
if it was true, as there is nearly 30 000 deaths in France, that would mean that 30 000 / 0.03% = 100 millions people in France were infected. We are only 65 millions.
It might be more in your neck of the woods due to a higher percentage of the population being elderly or vulnerable....there are MANY factors to consider.
francksteel: So, you see what it means for Dr. Erikson's claims...
As per saying they are claims: he has the data to back it up. Some might be false positives, as it were, but further testing is likely to ferret out the truth of the matter.
francksteel: So, back to HCQ : if the mortality rate is around 0.5% (with 80% people having low to mild symptoms), what kind of proof that give that Tom Hanks got HCQ and revored ?
Just a correction: I believe it was his wife that took it(although he might've taken it as well).
francksteel: Take your pick : if you have 0.5% chance of dying from Covid if you take nothing, if HCQ lowers (not proven, but well), this to 0.3% but also give you 1% of dying from heart failure (you must take a high dose - near the lethal dose - of HCQ to maybe lower the chance of dying from covid). Do you still take HCQ ?
Well obviously under NORMAL circumstances one likely wouldn't take such and doctors wouldn't likely give them such.....but under exceptional circumstances where one is sure to die of a disease or ailment, if something can save them and they will likely die anyways shouldn't they try anything they can(that might work) to survive?
francksteel: As for now, I didn't read any true expert study about that (Doctors Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi are not experts, t hey are urgentists, not epidemiologist, not virologist, not statisticians... They only made a rule of 3... And I think I proved, by using the same way as them how it leads to stupid results.)
Data you disagree with shouldn't be cast aside unless it can be proven false....that's what one should logically do in this case.
francksteel: Remember also that if more people get severly ill, health system cannot sustain the arrivals (meaning more people dying because of insufficient bed, respirators...) , people will also panick and will self quarantine and essential lines could break (markets and food transports), meaning more panick and more deaths.
People will likely also die due to food shortages/mental health issues/unemployment caused by lockdowns.
francksteel: That would certainly confirm what you think :
Stats for NYC and from China :
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
In NY : 45-64 y.o. represent 24% of the deaths but nearly all of them had underlying conditions (1343/1581) . What I don't know is how many % of the population has underlying conditions ("include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease"), and how many people are close relatives to people having an underlying conditions.
China (numbers from feb. 28) says that the death rate (probability of death if infected) of the 40-49 is 0.4% (but I have no figures of the underlying conditions)
Interesting info to think on...thanks for this.
francksteel: Another question : if you only lockdown elderly and vulnerable for 1 or 2 months, and that other do social distancing, wear masks (you enforce them to do so ?) in public :
- if social distancing/ wearing mask is enough to slow the spread (singapore seems to say it isn't, but let think it is for now):
the virus will still be there, how do you unlock elderly/vulnerable after 2 months ? the virus will still be spreading (no collective immunity, social distancing was said to be enough to not spread wide the virus) and will attack them as soon as they go out. So you need to lockdown them for 1,2,3 years, until we have a vaccine, if one can be made for more than 70% of the population.
If we need to quarantine that long then it'd likely be much better to quarantine just the elderly/vulnerable(as I said) and get supplies(food/medicine) to them via various channels.
That way the young and able can work to support them(either with money to family and friends to buy supplies, or to make needed stuff for said isolated populations, or in other ways.
francksteel: - if social distancing is not enough, and the virus spread quite fast between people "not vulnerable" :
the death rate seems to be 0.2% for <50 years old with no comorbidities.
in one month you would have infected let say 50% of the less than 50 years old
on a country like France, that means around 15 millions people infected.
which means 30 000 deaths (same as the number of deaths we already have... but majority of elderly)
which means 500 000 to 1.5 millions people in hospital --> we can't do that --> more deaths.
And we can't keep people locked down for too long, or people will STARVE or lose their jobs then STARVE.....among other such bad things....and people will die that way.
francksteel: I still don't know how many people will die because of economic shutdown.
But I still think that money and economic rules are only that : human rules and conventions that you can change, while deaths and nature rules you cannot change.
You can always erase a debt*, you never can erase a death.
It's likely not as simple as erasing debts......people need jobs to make money, and jobs aren't made quickly out of thin air. Once they lose said jobs it might be very hard for them to get another one.
francksteel: *and it can be a very very good idea for the economic health to erase from time to time ALL debts.
Agreed
francksteel: I almost forgot to say : I'm among the 5% richest person in my country, so I would be impacted by the erasure of debts. I don't care.
If sincere that is nice of you to say/be okay with, if I may say so.
francksteel: Even more, speaking egoistically : losing all my earnings will not change my life, living in a country with 20% unemployed, more violence, certainly will change it.
The problem being many more losing their jobs could kill off as many or more that died from the virus so far.....we cannot keep people locked up forever, and we cannot wait years for a vaccine(if one is even possible)....so we will(as a world) have to make a choice soon, I think....and if I may be honest i'm glad I don't have to make it.
(I second guess too much and i'd likely not be able to make a call quickly enough and always worry I made the wrong one).
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babark: The idea of only socially isolating the elderly is not realistic. "Okay, 95 year old grandma, go stay by yourself in this room for 2 months. We'll come to give you food and talk for a few minutes, but we'll have to basically wear hazmat suits while we do it".
The current system is feasible because you have the entire family locked down together. If only the elderly will be locked down, how would you accomplish that? Everyone build a separate room for their grandparents? Send them off to a concentration camp?
You are being hyperbolic, imo.
People could likely easily do it via means such as asking the elderly to stay in their rooms and having them(elderly family members) social distance/not touch many surfaces/etc when needing to leave their room.
OR they could(with govt help or on their own if they have the means) pay for their relatives to stay somewhere else for a period of time(some areas are using hotels already to host those without homes or those who are vulnerable).
babark: The way it would end up would be grandpa and grandma staying at home, everyone else going about their day as usual (with social distancing measures, which, as you pointed out, isn't enough), and then coming back home infected, and infecting grandma and grandpa any way.
That wouldn't happen as much(if at all) if they did the above and maintained said procedures IN the home as well as outside the home.
babark: Also, focusing only on mortality rate isn't enough. Sure, not so many people will die, but how many will need hospitalisation? Those people will clog up and overburden the healthcare system, so that not only other people with covid19 wouldn't be able to be treated, but people with cancer, broken legs, gunshot wounds, liver problems, they would all be affected too.
They are already turning away some patients with other issues at some hospitals even WITH the lockdowns in place....also doing such things to flatten the curve means it will take much longer than usual to get past this, likely leading to other problems.