Not sure what you mean by this first question. Take a look at the fascist track in this picture of the current board.
https://i.imgur.com/yKDURRZ.jpg
The 2nd fascist policy triggers an investigation. The 3rd triggers the president picking the next president. The 4th triggers an execution, and the 5th triggers an execution and also gives all players from then on the power of the veto.

Players may not receive access to the observer thread until the game is over.

Right sorry guys I've been typing this for a few days and having distractions with life so haven't had a good post to submit and I still don't and I've scrapped a few replies to RWarehall because they were getting tedious for everyone. But here's some of my thoughts and there maybe repitition as it's a few posts in one:

First off we need to think how many governments we might need to get this passed. Always investigate the next potential president from here on in is the best strategy. EDIT Have we only got one investigation left? IMO we need the game won before we walk down the ZFR/RWarehall/Dedoporno Lane if that is the case.

The obvious issue is 'what if Greek is F or Hitler', that would be where we'd basically lose the game. I'm reasonably confident he is Liberal or Hitler at this stage though.

@Greeklover FL is quite disapointing draw, I was hoping for LL. I tend to think Brasas is probably Liberal because this was too big a play to let it go 4-1 unless ofcourse they know one of Lift/Greek is fascist Hitler.

Dedo is a big unknown because LL would clear him but LF doesn't.

If Brasas is Lib, that does make it more likely Dedo is L, unless this was a double bluff by an F to try and get us to suspect Brasas and avoid his presidency? Obviously if it was that backfired. But Dedo we have little/no positive info on.

I believe this also confirms that Scene did not discard an L card Also @Greeklover you say I'm not confirmed but it has now been confirmed that I have never discarded a Liberal card at any turn given the L card came up on /

@RWarewall said I'm suspicious for picking Dedoporno. But I didn't pick Dedo, I had a choice between Dedo, ZFR and RWarehall. Who's the better pick with the behaviour of all 3 if you are a Liberal? Now obviously RWarehall will counter that with me engineering a dispute against RWarehall and ZFR because I knew they were Liberal and Dedo was fascist. But this stage who do we think is more likely to be Liberal? Or box 3 perhaps none of us.

@Adalia suggesting to vote against Brasas Presidency and turn a card over is suspicious behaviour.

@RWarehall posts do dominate these pages with length and analysis. He does have much logic in his analysis but I think the logic is skewed towards picking off Liberals.

@RWarehall says RWarehall, ZFR and Adalia are the most experienced players but as the most experienced players why would they trust each others analysis?

For me at this stage Unacceptable Governments:

RWarehall, ZFR, Dedoporno (sorry if your lib Dedo), Adalia and Blotunga

It could well be there is more than 1 Liberal on that list and it could well be there is Hitler amongst the rest. But we kind of need the game won before the ZFR/RWarehall/Dedoporno Presidency hits.

Can someone confirm there are 2L Cards and 10F Cards left in the reshuffled pack and the odds please

@Zeo do we only get to kill people after the 2nd fascist policy and not get investigations? I mean I know its in the rules yadaya

@Zeo you said there was a seperate thread commentating on this thread, are players not allowed to view it? Or is that against the rules

Not sure what you mean by this first question. Take a look at th-
...
...wait a minute...

Take a look at the board, that's all the confirmation you need. All the policy cards that aren't on the board are back in the stack now.
The probabilites for 3F have been discussed thoroughly for the next draw and for all other probabilities you can use this tool here:
https://nerdbucket.com/statistics/hypergeometric/

CURRENT PROPOSED GOVERNMENT

President: The Greek (greeklover)
Chancellor: Basil the Lifter (lifthrasil)

You people know what to do: VOTE!

That was funny :D

You're correct, it was possible to pick up 2 Ls but it was odds of: 2L1F = 3/28 = 10.7%


Sorry about that Zeo I didn't think it had posted the first post, I could edit and put a delete post or just leave it

Just leave it. There is the 'no editing' rule, which actually means 'no editing'. Not even to remove any errors.

I'm not sure what you mean by this first option, but if you take a look at the fascist track...

(Joking aside, yeah, just leave it.)

Interesting how you boil it down to the only trusted people in your mind are yourself, Kusu, Greek, Lift and Brasas knowing that Lift and Greek will be ineligible after that so only Kusu and Brasas are acceptable candidates for Lift's Chancellor in your mind.

And once again if only someone had bothered to post the odds somewhere...

And then you act as if Dedo was the only real choice back then...as if you had suspected me all along. Then why did you pick me as your Chancellor? I still believe you were hoping to throw me under the bus while passing a fascist policy and were unlucky and drew 2L.

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@Greek Don't get fancy. Investigate Lift if you draw 3F. That was a good plan!

Investigating Dedo only helps if he turns out liberal. But if he turns out fascist you it only tells you about him. The better alternate would be the principals Scene, ZFR or I, but Lift comes next. It's really important to know if he's Hitler. Of course better would be to draw a damn L and get this over with. Either we win or Lift disputes you and you can confirm the sides at the same time.

No Sir, you didn't. You didn't want him to be president. You even used all caps to warn everyone and ensure no one picks him by accident.

Maybe you should get my quote straight. I said we are experienced players. Both Adalia and I have played our fair share of Mafia and ZFR played a lot of Resistance.

Now, I wouldn't categorize it as "trust" at all, but maybe its because there are some comments that make sense and make it clear that people are thinking about the game. And not the "I think they are fascists and because I think they are fascists its clear they stumbled blindly into a bad situation and really didn't have a plan". When I see rationales like that, those sounds scummy.

Fascist plans almost always try to sound liberal but subtly twist things in their favor.

Possible example: Lift's posts in 125 and 141 where he talks up his Secret Hitler experience and tells us how the results of the 1st investigation mean "Scene has a very high probability to be liberal" and "greek probably is liberal too, but with a lower degree of certainty". Yet, in 141 when giving general advice, he talks of how "Fascists sometimes DO enact Fascist policies in the first round. Especially if the President is a Fascist." The first part looks like a fascist trying to subtly prop up a buddy and cast a little doubt on the liberal. But when later talking about general advice about the game, he told the truth. Not realizing it contradicts his earlier assessment.

Another possible example: Scene's insistence that ZFR's waffling on his own chancellorship makes him look fascist. When I see people bring arguments to the table, I analyze them. What does a fascist have to gain by voting against his own government? As Hitler it makes zero sense since both liberals and fascists would make sure his government passes which gives him cred. As a fascist, why wouldn't he want to be in government where he either gains cred or disputes a liberal while passing a fascist policy. And it's all his choice!

The short story is I had ZFR leaning liberal because he waffled since liberals are the one's who tend to second-guess themselves and the situation while fascists already know who to trust and what they need to do to win the game. But hey, Scene pushes this bad logic for weeks...it just looked to me like a fascist (Scene) trying to twist the facts to pass shade on a liberal.

I can't be sure, but hey, if it quacks like a duck...

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Even more telling is how when asked multiple times, none of these people want to discuss how it came about that the Lift/Greek government passed smoothly without the wit of doubt bringing the game to 3-0, or what the fascist angle would be to push the game to Dedo and Brasas if they are indeed both liberals. Maybe it's because it doesn't make sense...

Now there's an unlucky choice of words. Scene throwing you under the bus, at least in the Mafia terms I know, implies that you both are scum. That's what bussing means: one scum throwing the other under the bus to get credibility himself. Maybe you use this term differently. But it gets more interesting in your next post:

No. What is really telling is that you keep claiming that no one answered that while ignoring the fact that I did answer it. You don't like my answer? Fine. But don't pretend that I didn't answer. That is a plain lie. Again. Just like your misrepresentation of what I wrote about dedo was.

And it's interesting that you read 'waffling' in the case of ZFR as a sign of being liberal. But in other cases you read it as a sign of being fascist. You just pick your 'reads' however they suit you, don't you? And you even construct contradictions where there are none. Or can you explain to me how the statement that fascists have reasons to pass a fascist policy in the first round contradicts reading someone who passed a liberal policy as leaning liberal?

You make some good points about Scene. But then you use some methods that are so scummy that it is hard to take anything you write at face value. If you are liberal, stop ignoring answers and stop misrepresenting what others wrote. Because if you are liberal, you should not aim at creating confusion by twisting what other people wrote. That's only in the interest of fascists.

Really? From someone who can't keep his facts straight?
And another scum tactic, nitpicking over words when the meaning is rather clear...

Scene was trying to screw me taking advantage of his confirmation (I've explained this possibility multiple times), but interesting how you are now trying to twist it into me and Scene on the same scum team...how does that work for the Fascist master plan of going for two people who we'd know to be liberal? Oh but you keep claiming you have somehow answered the question...rather than just dodging it with lame excuses about how maybe there was no plan...or because there is no night chat, fascists somehow arrive at a plan that makes zero sense. Do you want to explain how me and Scene on the same team works exactly? How this meshes with everyone's actions? And how it makes sense for a plan?

To any liberals, you should investigate the possibilities, but then you have to explain why Scene chose to pass 2L instead of 1L1F? Why he wouldn't claim to have drawn 1L2F to throw you off? Even if he did draw 3L, why he didn't still claim to draw less to confirm me? And when you do the analysis, look at who it is making this accusation; how he didn't try to analyze it beyond picking words apart.

Funny how you talk of "good points about Scene" when it's really about YOUR reaction and unfair coronation of him as a leading liberal. Did I not DIRECTLY quote you? My good points are about how YOU seem to be propping up certain players (Scene) and passing a little doubt to others (Greek and ZFR).

I didn't misrepresent anything. I ask all liberals to look at posts 125 and 141 and look for yourself. There is no twisting. There is no misrepresentation. It's exactly as I say. And the fact that so many kept repeating how confirmed Scene was for so long...look where it started...it started with Lift and his misrepresentation of how likely Scene is to be a liberal. And you all took it for granted because Lift put himself in the position of expert of the game.

And show me one case where I've accused anyone else of "waffling" as a sign they are fascist? I have not. Also funny how you now equate "leaning liberal" as the same thing as "Scene has a very high probability to be liberal" while you qualify "greek probably is liberal too, but with a lower degree of certainty".

Talk about people twisting things...my God!

Well, I guess he can consider a Kusu / Brasas or Kusu / Scene gov... which then means Lift / Greek is possible...